Fantasy Football Today: Bold predictions, Dave Richard’s start/sit calls and Cowboys-Bucs preview

It’s game day, folks. It’s the first time all that planning, all that research, all that projecting and conjecture actually face real results. It’s the first time you have to make your lineup decisions, too. 

We’re here to help. Jamey Eisenberg’s Start ‘Em & Sit ‘Em picks for Week 1 are right here, and today’s newsletter will bring Dave Richard’s start and sit picks to you as well. But we know not everyone has time for all that reading, so if you want to get your questions answered directly, make sure you subscribe to the Fantasy Football Today YouTube channel and join Adam Aizer, Dave Richard and I at 2 p.m. ET for our start/sit live stream. We’ll be discussing all of the latest news and answering your toughest lineup questions, and we’ll be there every week to make sure you’re ready for the first lineup lock of the week. 

In tomorrow’s newsletter, I’ll have previews of every game on the Week 1 schedule, including the latest injury updates for everyone you need to know about, plus all of the key takeaways from tonight’s season opener between the Buccaneers and Cowboys. If you want to get ready for that game — and see some of my favorite player prop picks — just keep scrolling. 

Get ready for Week 1 with all of our preview content here:  

• Week 1 Start ‘Em & Sit ‘Em: QB | RB | WR
• Starts, sits and sleepers for every game
• Week 1 Position Previews: QB | RB | WR | TE
• Week 1 Rankings: Jamey | Dave | Heath | Chris

Here’s what else today’s newsletter will cover:

• 🔥Bold Predictions
• 1️⃣Dave Richard’s Week 1 Preview
• 🆚TNF Preview: Buccaneers vs. Cowboys
• 🚑Week 1 Injury Watch

🔥Bold Predictions

You can check out the full list from the whole FFT team here, with 21 total predictions to sort through. Remember, we’re not guaranteeing these things happen; we’re saying if they do, they’re going to make an outsized impact on how your seasons will shake out. Think of it like hot takes we actually (kind of) believe in:

Here’s my boldest call, and it shouldn’t be a surprise to anyone who has been reading this newsletter:

Joe Mixon challenges for the top spot at RB.

We can be reasonably sure Mixon is going to get a ton of carries — he’s averaged at least 16.9 per game in each of the past three seasons. And he should be more efficient with those carries than he was last season when he averaged just 3.6 yards per carry. That gives him the floor. The ceiling comes in with the expectation that Mixon will finally be a true three-down player, with the potential for up to 90 targets in a ceiling outcome. Mixon is set up to finally live up to the hype and then some. 

Here’s where the rest of the crew is planting their flags, and you can see the full list here:

• Jamey Eisenberg: Michael Thomas is going to be the No. 1 PPR receiver from Week 7 on. Once he’s back from his ankle injury, Thomas is going to look like the 2019 version of himself again, and he’s going to love playing with Jameis Winston.
• Dave Richard: Jerry Jeudy will be a top-10 Fantasy receiver. The talent is undeniable — he’s a master route-runner with speed and physicality after the catch. Paired with a decent-enough quarterback who can actually deliver a catchable target, Jeudy’s numbers should take off this season. 
• Heath Cummings: Dak Prescott doesn’t slow down as much as everyone expects. And he’s gonna win an MVP in the process. Prescott throws for 5,500 yards, breaking Peyton Manning’s record, but it’s not just volume-based. He also leads the league in completion percentage, yards per attempt, and Fantasy points per game while leading the Cowboys to the playoffs.
• Adam Aizer: Justin Jefferson is considered the best WR in the NFL at the end of the year. We declare a new player “the best WR in the NFL” every single season, but it’s going to be Jefferson after 2021. He’s that good.
• Dan Schneier: Clyde Edwards-Helaire will finish as a top five Fantasy RB. Andy Reid envisioned CEH as a reincarnation of Brian Westbrook when they drafted him and he has seen an expanded pass game role in camp. With Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill garnering constant attention from defenses, CEH will be an easy option for Mahomes often. And that’s just in the passing game. In the run game, the Chiefs offer arguably the most improved offensive line in football. He’ll be more efficient as both a runner and receiver and Kansas City doesn’t have much competition around him on the best offense in football. That’s a nice recipe for big-time Fantasy numbers.
• Ben Schragger: Mark Andrews will go head to head with Kelce as the best tight end in Fantasy. With a banged up Ravens receiving corps and lack of explosive running backs, Andrews could see 100+ targets from Lamar Jackson. If Jackson’s accuracy improves at all this year, Andrews could turn 2020’s 17 red zone targets into 10+ touchdowns, jumping Waller and Kittle as the TE1 or TE2 in Fantasy.

1️⃣Dave Richard’s Week 1 Preview

There are the obvious calls, and then there are the ones you need help with. Dave Richard goes through each game to identify the most interesting matchups and biggest lineup dilemmas for Week 1. Here are some of his top picks for this week. You can find the rest of his advice for Week 1 here:

Starts

• Chase Edmonds — “Under Kliff Kingsbury, the Cardinals typically don’t lean heavily on their running backs — they finished just below league-average with 21.1 running back rushes per game in 2020 after being dead-last (17.5) in 2019. There are simply no signs of that changing; backup quarterback Chris Streveler led the team in rush attempts this preseason and Arizona ordered up 31 running back rushes versus 68 passing plays called. So if this team is going to be in pass-happy mode, Edmonds is the better guy to have on the field than James Conner thanks to his receiving skills. Expect him to lead the way in playing time and definitely count on him getting work in the passing game against a Titans team that ranked seventh in percentage of man coverage defensive snaps last year. Edmonds figures to have an edge versus that man-to-man style and can also eat up yardage against heavy zone defenses guarding against big passing plays and hurry-up offenses. Edmonds qualifies as a flex option in non- and half-PPR leagues but has the added upside for a good game in full PPR.”
• Ronald Jones — “By many accounts, Jones had the better training camp than Leonard Fournette. Is it enough to guarantee he will have more touches? Unfortunately, it won’t. That probably won’t be decided until after the game starts and Bruce Arians has a feel for which of his backs has a hot hand. Dallas did upgrade its run defense a little bit this offseason but there are still liabilities there in the run game. There’s also the likelihood that the Bucs will have a lead and try polishing off the Cowboys in the fourth quarter with the run game. That could help Jones — there were five games in his 13 starts last year where he had 10 or fewer carries. Three of those five were losses and a fourth was a close Bucs win. In the other eight outings, mostly blowout wins, Jones averaged 18.0 carries per game. Tampa Bay is a 7.5-point favorite. Jones also has more speed to create breakaway runs. The bet is he gets enough work to notch 70 yards with a mild chance at scoring. That makes him usable in non- and half-PPR.”

Sits

• Mike Williams — “I’m glad Williams is healthy and ready to play after getting the preferential starter’s treatment this preseason, but this isn’t the best matchup for him. Washington prefers to play zone coverage to keep big plays from happening downfield. Washington also has an incredible defensive line that figures to keep Justin Herbert from having time to throw downfield. Williams also wasn’t much of a red-zone guy last year, finishing third on his own team in red-zone targets with 10 in 15 games. It doesn’t leave a positive outlook for Williams, who had eight games with seven-plus targets last year but had 15-plus PPR in just half.”
• Ja’Marr Chase — “The expectation is that Chase will play along the outside for most of his snaps this season. That means he’ll see a lot of Patrick Peterson and Bashaud Breeland this Sunday versus the Vikings. But it doesn’t matter who he goes up against if he’s not going to catch the ball. Chase admitted this week that the drops are related to getting used to the pro-style ball and concentrating on bringing the ball all the way in without jumping. The talent we saw at LSU in 2019 might not quite be on display in Week 1, nor should we expect Chase to get tons of throws to go his way. The Bengals don’t have to do that given their receiver depth, and they might not even be able to dial up intermediate and long throws for Joe Burrow to make given the Vikings’ much-improved pass rush. It’s a good week to sit Chase if you can; I have Jakobi Meyers, Marquez Callaway, Corey Davis, Jaylen Waddle, Marvin Jones and Antonio Brown ranked higher.” 

Sleepers

• Michael Pittman/Parris Campbell — “The Colts open the year against a Seahawks defense that has a bunch of questions at cornerback. The team’s shuffled through the position recently, leaving them with three modest starters including 5-foot-9 cornerback D.J. Reed at left cornerback and, potentially, second-year defensive back Ugo Amadi in the slot. Because the Seahawks don’t rotate their cornerbacks much, Indianapolis could manufacture the matchup of Reed against the 6-foot-4 Pittman. And while Amadi graded out well last year, he did allow a 75% catch rate and was 32nd in yards after catch allowed among qualifying cornerbacks. There’s obvious risk in starting either Pittman or Campbell since they haven’t had a ton of time getting their timing down with Carson Wentz, but the matchup is pretty alluring and both should have chances to rake in decent target share in their first game without T.Y. Hilton. I actually like Campbell better in full PPR and would strongly consider him in my DFS tournament lineups.”
• Mike Gesicki — “It feels like we should use Gesicki while we can — Will Fuller will be back next week and the concentration of targets will be further diluted in Miami. Gesicki had the second-highest target share from Tua Tagovailoa last year, but it was only 14.8%. The good news? Gesicki had more catches (29), yards (308) and touchdowns (3) from Tua Tagovailoa than anyone else on the Dolphins. It feels likely the Patriots will have a solution for covering Gesicki, but the hunch is that focus will really only come into play near the red zone and that in general they’ll be more concerned with Jaylen Waddle. Gesicki is worth the Week 1 nod for his receiving potential, not just his decent touchdown-scoring upside.”

Bust Candidate

• Ezekiel Elliott — “Odds are that Elliott will play just fine, but the interior of the Cowboys O-line, with Connor McGovern replacing Zack Martin, and Tyler Biadasz at center, is a liability against the Buccaneers’ massive D-line beef. You might think the Cowboys can combat it by running Elliott to the outside, but the Buccaneers held opposing rushers to 3.9 yards per carry between the tackles and the sidelines last year. There were also seven games in 2019-20 (out of nine) where the Cowboys lost by eight or more points and Elliott had fewer than 15 carries. Benching Elliott would take some guts, not to mention some really good backup running backs on the roster, but there’s worry he may not score nor get enough work on the ground to fully return a start-able performance.”

🆚TNF Preview: Cowboys at Buccaneers 

All lines from Caesars Sportsbook

• Line: Buccaneers -8.5; 51.5 over/under
• Implied totals: Buccaneers 30-Cowboys 21.5

What to expect: Vegas certainly expects the Bucs to win rather easily, though I am surprised by the Cowboys’ relatively low implied total. This one should have plenty of fireworks, even with the Cowboys questions along the line and the expectation that Dak Prescott might have to knock off the rust after missing the preseason. Expect a great night for Fantasy. 

Key injuries: Chris Godwin and Antonio Brown were dealing with issues that limited them in practice, but both made it through OK and have no injury status for the game; neither does Giovani Bernard despite dealing with a high-ankle sprain earlier in the week. The only noteworthy absence expected is RG Zack Martin (COVID), who doesn’t look like he’ll be cleared in time to play.  

What to watch for: There are actually a surprising number of questions about both of these teams. For the Buccaneers, we want to see what the playing time split is like between Jones and Fournette; we know Bernard is going to handle third downs, so if Jones and Fournette split early downs nearly evenly, it’s going to make it hard to trust either. We also have some questions about how targets will be distributed between Godwin, Brown, and Mike Evans, though all three are worth starting this week. On the Cowboys side, the main thing we want to see is whether CeeDee Lamb can live up to all of the preseason hype. We expect a step forward in Year 2, but is he really ready to usurp Amari Cooper as the No. 1? I’m not convinced, and I’ll need to see it first. 

Notable player props

• Dak Prescott: OVER 1.5 passing touchdowns — I know this is a tough matchup, but Prescott has thrown multiple touchdowns in 12 of 20 games with Kellen Moore as coordinator and we expect to see him throw a lot this week. It doesn’t matter if that second one comes in garbage time, he’ll get it. 
• Ezekiel Elliott: OVER 20.5 receiving yards — I guess I just like the Cowboys a little more than the oddsmakers this week, because this one seems shockingly low. Elliott topped this in all four full games with Prescott last season and 12 of 20 with him since the start of 2019. If the Cowboys are going to be chasing points, Elliott should easily top this one. 
• Blake Jarwin: OVER 1.5 receptions — I’m not sure exactly how the Cowboys are going to split up playing time between Jarwin and Dalton Schultz, but Jarwin over 1.5 receptions seems like a pretty safe bet in a game where Prescott’s prop for completions is at 25.5. Jarwin is a No. 2 tight end for me, ahead of Schultz. 

🚑Week 1 Injury Watch

The Big News: Curtis Samuel was listed as a non-participant in practice Wednesday after he came up limping on a route during warmups. It seems to be an aggravation of the groin injury he’s dealt with dating back to May, which makes it hard to see how he manages to play in Week 1. Hopefully the injury doesn’t continue to linger too much longer than that, but at this point, you kind of have to expect he’ll be out for a while, unfortunately. Samuel is one of my favorite breakout candidates this season, but this injury is threatening to derail that before he even gets on the field. It’s frustrating, though this injury does seemingly open up an opportunity for rookie Dyami Brown to play a significant role in Week 1. Brown, the team’s third-round pick, could be a dangerous deep threat for Washington, and is worth an add if you’ve got a roster spot to play with.  

I’ll have a full breakdown of the injury report in Friday’s newsletter along with my preview of each game, but here’s a look at the first practice participation reports of the season:

Injuries to watch for Week 1

It’s not clear what these injuries mean quite yet. 

• Austin Ekeler (hamstring) — It’s not clear when Ekeler suffered the injury, but he was limited to working with trainers and riding a stationary bike on the sidelines during practice. We don’t know exactly what this means for his Week 1 availability, but it’s certainly not a good sign, especially since Ekeler missed significant time with the same injury last season. Justin Jackson and Joshua Kelley figure to see larger workloads if Ekeler has to miss time, but I wouldn’t be excited about the prospects of starting either. One name to keep an eye on if Ekeler does have to miss time is Latavius Murray, who has experience working in a similar offense to Joe Lombardi’s with his time in New Orleans. I would get excited about him if that were to happen. 
• A.J. Brown (knee) — Brown didn’t practice Wednesday, but that wasn’t necessarily a rarity in 2020, so no need to panic. He’s coming off surgery in each knee this offseason, and the Titans have been managing his reps since camp. We’ll watch this Thursday and Friday, but for now, I’m expecting him to play without limitations. 
• Emmanuel Sanders (foot) — Sanders has been managing this issue throughout training camp, and my expectation is he’ll be limited all season in practice. That shouldn’t stop him from being the No. 2 WR for the Bills and a potential PPR flex starter. 
• Nelson Agholor (ankle) — Agholor had his reps limited at times during camp, though it’s not clear if this was related to that. He was limited Wednesday, and I would expect him to play this week, though I wouldn’t be excited about that for Fantasy. 
• Mecole Hardman (oblique) — This is a new issue for Hardman, and oblique’s can be tricky injuries that tend to linger. But he was limited Wednesday, so I would say it’s more likely he plays than not at this point. He’s in the WR4/5/Flex discussion for Week 1, with a big opportunity to break out this season. 
• Darnell Mooney (back) — This is another injury we’re hearing about for the first time, which makes it hard to know what to make of it. My assumption is he’ll be OK to play and belongs in the WR4 discussion, but let’s see what the next few days hold. 

Trending up for Week 1

This doesn’t mean they will play, but we got good news about them Wednesday. 

• Carson Wentz (foot) — Wentz will be a full participant in practice this week and is going to play against the Seahawks. He’s just a low-end Fantasy option for now, but if he recaptures some of his pre-2020 form he could matter again in a hurry. 
  
  
• D’Andre Swift (groin) — For all the hand-wringing, Swift was a full participant in practice Wednesday. Maybe he’ll be limited come game time if his conditioning isn’t there, but it doesn’t look like there’s much to be concerned about right now. 
• Saquon Barkley (knee) — We’ll find out for sure if Barkley will be cleared to play Thursday, but all signs point to Barkley playing. He was limited Wednesday, and may have a limited role in Week 1, but I’m still starting him as an RB2. 
• Kenny Golladay/Kadarius Toney (hamstring) — Both were limited as a result of their injuries, but it also sounds like both are trending in the right direction and should end up good to go. It’s hard to know what to expect from either after they were largely absent from training camp, but it’ll be worth keeping an eye on Toney’s usage to see if he might end up worth adding. 
• Parris Campbell (Achilles) — Campbell was limited with a new injury, but according to NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport, this is more of a lingering issue, so it shouldn’t be something that keeps him out of action. 
• Trey Lance (finger) — Lance was limited Wednesday, but this version of limited did include him throwing passes for the first time since his fractured finger. He looks in line to play what could be a Taysom Hill-esque role in Week 1. 
• Noah Fant (leg) — Fant is expected to play in Week 1, so it’s no concern that he was limited Wednesday. We’d prefer to see him get in a full practice, but you’re starting him as long as he’s active. 
• Kyle Rudolph (foot) — My assumption is Rudolph is going to be limited throughout practice for most of the season, but should be able to play this week. With Evan Engram likely out, he figures to play an important role. 

Trending down for Week 1

This doesn’t mean they won’t play, but they aren’t moving in the right direction yet. 

• Evan Engram (calf) — Engram didn’t practice Wednesday, and it’s looking increasingly likely he won’t be cleared to play in Week 1. 
• Rhamondre Stevenson (thumb) — Stevenson dislocated his thumb in practice last week, but there is some optimism that he’ll be able to play. He figures to be the No. 2 back for the Patriots behind Damien Harris, but he’ll have to fend off J.J. Taylor, and an injury won’t help his odds.