NFL odds, lines, picks, top predictions for Week 1, 2021: Football model backing 49ers, Panthers

The New Orleans Saints notoriously have one of the biggest home field advantages in the NFL. However, the Saints had their Week 1 matchup against the Green Bay Packers moved to TIAA Bank Field in Jacksonville, Fla. in the aftermath of Hurricane Ida. New Orleans has won two of the last three meetings against Green Bay, but the Saints are just 1-6 against the spread in their last seven games played in Week 1. The latest Week 1 NFL odds from Caesars Sportsbook list the Saints as four-point underdogs against the Packers.

Elsewhere, the Tennessee Titans are three-point favorites at home against the Arizona Cardinals, one of the tightest NFL spreads of the week. The game will mark Julio Jones‘ first as a member of the Titans after the Pro Bowl receiver was traded during the offseason. All of the Week 1 NFL lines are listed below, and SportsLine’s advanced computer model has all the NFL betting advice and predictions you need to make the best Week 1 NFL picks now. 

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up almost $7,900 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception six years ago. It went a sizzling 24-14 on top-rated NFL picks last season, returning more than $800. The model also enters the 2021 season on an incredible 120-78 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season.

The model also ranked in the Top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past five years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94 percent of CBS Sports Football Pick’em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

Now, it has turned its attention to the latest Week 1 NFL odds from Caesars and locked in picks for every NFL matchup. Head here to see every pick.

Top Week 1 NFL predictions

One of the top Week 1 NFL predictions the model recommends: The 49ers (-7.5) cover the spread against the Lions. Despite dealing with injuries to key players like Nick Bosa, Dee Ford and others, San Francisco still managed to have one of the league’s most successful defenses in 2020. In fact, the 49ers gave up just 314.4 yards per game, which ranked fifth in the NFL.

Bosa is on track to play against Detroit in Week 1 after suffering a season-ending knee injury a season ago. The 2019 Defensive Rookie of the Year will certainly cause havoc against a Detroit offense that averaged just 93.7 rushing yards per game last season, which ranked 30th in the NFL. The model shows San Francisco’s defense holding Detroit to just 66 rushing yards, resulting in the 49ers covering the spread in nearly 60 percent of simulations. 

Another one of the top Week 1 NFL picks from the model: The Panthers (-5.5) cover as home favorites against the Jets. Although the line has moved fairly significantly towards the Panthers, the prediction still shows that Carolina’s talent is head-and-shoulders above a two-win team from last season. Last year, the Jets were 0-3 against the spread as single-digit road underdogs.

Panthers head coach Matt Rhule will be focused on getting running back Christian McCaffrey back into a rhythm while rehabilitating new quarterback Sam Darnold’s young career. For the Jets, Robert Saleh is a first-time head coach on the road with a rookie starting quarterback. Even at a higher number, the model points to Carolina in over 50 percent of simulations.

How to make Week 1 NFL picks 

The model has also made the call on who wins and covers in every other game on the Week 1 NFL schedule, and it’s calling for a Super Bowl contender to go down hard. You can only get every pick for every game at SportsLine.

So what NFL picks can you make with confidence? And which Super Bowl contender goes down hard? Check out the latest NFL odds below, then visit SportsLine to see which teams win and cover the spread, all from a proven computer model that has returned almost $7,900 since its inception, and find out.

Week 1 NFL odds (via Caesars)

Sunday, Sept. 12

Steelers at Bills (-6.5, 48.5)

Jets at Panthers (-5.5, 44.5)

Jaguars at Texans (+2.5, 44.5)

Cardinals at Titans (-3. 52)

Chargers at Washington (+1, 44.5)

Eagles at Falcons (-3, 48)

Seahawks at Colts (+2.5, 49.5)

Vikings at Bengals (+3, 47.5)

49ers at Lions (+7.5, 45)

Browns at Chiefs (-6, 54.5)

Dolphins at Patriots (-3, 43.5)

Broncos at Giants (+3, 42)

Packers at Saints (+4, 50)

Bears at Rams (-7.5, 46.5)

Monday, Sept. 13

Ravens at Raiders (+4.5, 50.5)