The Chicago Bears and Los Angeles Rams will put a bow on the first Sunday of the 2021 NFL regular season when they go toe-to-toe at SoFi Stadium during “Sunday Night Football.” Both of these teams will be trotting out different quarterbacks than those under center for them in 2020. The Rams made the first big splash of the offseason by trading for former Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford, who’ll truly be making his L.A. debut after not playing at all this preseason. Meanwhile, the Bears signed Andy Dalton this offseason, and the veteran will get the start in Week 1. That said, all the focus seems to be set on first-round rookie Justin Fields, who is waiting in the wings to eventually ascend to QB1 for Chicago.
This game should be the perfect end to the opening Sunday slate, so why not try to make a little cash in the process? Below, we’ll be covering all the different betting angles that this game has to offer. We’ll be diving into the line movements leading up to this matchup, highlight some player props and, of course, give you our picks for this NFC showdown.
All NFL odds via Caesars Sportsbook.
How to watch
Date: Sunday, Sept. 12 | Time: 8:20 p.m. ET
Location: SoFi Stadium (Inglewood, California)
TV: NBC | Stream: fuboTV (try for free)
Follow: CBS Sports App
Odds: Rams -7.5, O/U 46.5
Line movement
Latest Odds: Los Angeles Rams -7.5
There really hasn’t been much movement for this game. It opened at Rams -7 back in May, bumped up to Rams -7.5 in late August and has held firm for the last few weeks. The Rams did move to -360 to -380 on the moneyline in early September, but from a spread standpoint, everything has largely held true.
The pick: Rams -7.5 (-110) – While it’s easy to point out Andy Dalton’s flaws to make the case against Chicago here, I’m equally as concerned about its offensive line going up against this L.A. front seven. Throughout the preseason, both Dalton and Fields had little time in the pocket before it collapsed. If that continues, it’s hard to imagine the Bears being able to keep up with this prolific Rams offense.
Key trend: Sean McVay is 4-0 ATS in Week 1 as head coach of the Rams.
Over/Under total
Unlike the spread, the total has moved around quite a bit over the summer. It opened at 45.5 and dipped down to 44.5 by the beginning of September. This number has since crept back up to 46.5 as of Friday, Sept. 10.
The pick: Over 46.5 (-110) – While I don’t have much faith in the Bears offense, I have enough confidence in them to score at least a couple of touchdowns to get themselves in the teens. From there, I expect McVay to unleash his new quarterback to drive us the rest of the way.
Key trend: The Under is 14-3 in the Rams’ last 17 home games.
Andy Dalton props
- Passing touchdowns: 1.5 (Over +195, Under -240)
- Passing yards: 209.5 (Over -115, Under -115)
- Rushing yards: 8.5 (Over -110, Under -120)
- Pass attempts: 33.5 (Over -115, Under -115)
- Completions: 19.5 (Over -105, Under -125)
- Longest pass completion: 33.5 (Over -120, -110)
- Interceptions: 0.5 (Over -150, Under +120)
The Under 209.5 passing yards at -115 is the prop worth targeting here with Dalton. Not only is he facing a tough Rams defense in front of a swiss cheese offensive line, but we don’t even know how long Dalton will be in the game. If he struggles early and L.A. takes a big enough lead, I don’t think anyone would be shocked to see them turn to Justin Fields in the second half.
Matthew Stafford props
- Passing touchdowns: 1.5 (Over -150, Under +120)
- Passing yards: 274.5 (Over -115, Under -115)
- Pass attempts: 33.5 (Over -120, Under -110)
- Completions: 23.5 (Over -125, Under -105)
- Longest pass completion: 37.5 (Over -120, Under -110)
- Interceptions: 0.5 (Over +105, Under -135)
Stafford had seven multi-passing touchdown outings in his 16 games played last season. I expect that number to rise now that he’s in a far more prolific offense with the Rams while also surrounded by a better selection of skill position players, so the Over 1.5 at -150 seems to be the best prop on the board for Stafford. It also doesn’t hurt that the Bears surrendered 28 passing touchdowns in 2020, ranking 16th in the league.
Player props to consider
Robert Woods receiving yards: Over 63.5 (-115) – Woods hit this mark in seven of his 16 regular season games in 2020. With improved quarterback play and still one of the top option within this offense, this seems like a solid prop to lean on.
David Montgomery scrimmage yards: Under 80.5 (-115) – The Rams defense was third in the league last season defending the run and — as talented as Montgomery is — it doesn’t seem like he’ll be able to overcome this tough matchup.
Darrell Henderson rushing yards: Over 52.5 (-115) – This could be a game where the Rams jump to an early lead and McVay looks to the running game to bleed the clock. With Cam Akers out for the season and Sony Michel still getting his feet wet in the system following a trade from the Patriots, Henderson could handle a bulk of that work. Last season, the Bears gave up 113.4 rushing yards per game.
