Raise your hand if you came out on the losing side of last night’s ‘Monday Night Football’ contest. Good lord, that was absolutely infuriating.
Like many, I had the Baltimore Ravens -3.5 and felt like I was getting great value. The Ravens looked great out of the gate and the defense was making life difficult for Derek Carr. Down the stretch, the Ravens had several chances to put the game away. Then Ty’Son Williams whiffed on a block and Jackson ended up fumbling in overtime. The Raiders went down and scored on a Zay Jones touchdown to win it.
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That game put a cap on an awful weekend for bettors that put money on favorites. Underdogs ruled the roost and there were so many games to feel good about in both the NFL and the college ranks.
Anyway, let’s try to get back on the winning track tonight!
All times Eastern, and all odds via Caesars Sportsbook
🔥 The Hot Ticket
⚾ Padres at Giants, 9:45 p.m. | TV: MLB.TV
The Pick: Giants -1.5 (+115): As a Phillies fan, this one is as easy as it gets. If Jake Arrieta is on the mound, I’m backing whatever team is on the other side. Lucky for us, it just happens to be the Giants, who have been one of the best teams in baseball this season.
In 2021, Arrieta owns an abysmal 5-12 record to go along with a 7.04 ERA. Arrieta has surrendered four or more runs in four of his last six starts. In addition, the veteran right-hander has given up at least one home run in five of those starts. With a talented lineup that features sluggers like Kris Bryant and Mike Yastrzemski, the Giants should have plenty of opportunities to drive in runs off of Arrieta.
Oh and the Giants are riding an eight-game winning streak and have scored at least six runs in each of those games. We’re getting some positive juice on the run line, which is always great value. Against a pitcher like Arrieta, it’s worth hammering the Giants.
Key Trend: Giants are 4-1 in their last five games against a team with a winning record
💰 The Picks
⚾ Cubs at Phillies, 7:05 p.m. | TV: MLB.TV
The Pick: Phillies -0.5 in First 5 Innings (-135): The Phillies have been fairly depressing down the stretch with five losses in their last six games. It hasn’t been pretty, so I can’t bring myself to back them over the course of a full game. However, I have a good feeling about the Phillies over the first five innings.
Since joining the Phillies, Kyle Gibson has been one of the most consistent arms around. Gibson has surrendered three or fewer runs in six of his eight starts with Philadelphia. He’s gone at least six innings in five of those starts, so that provides some nice comfort. It also doesn’t hurt that the Cubs lineup doesn’t exactly strike fear into the hearts of opposing pitchers.
The Phillies have also 10 runs in the first five innings of games over their last five contests. I simply don’t trust the Phillies bullpen to hold a lead, which is supported by their 4.63 bullpen ERA. With the way Bryce Harper has been hitting, the Phillies should be able to bring a few runs across the plate in those first five innings.
Key Trend: Phillies are 8-3 in their last 11 games when their opponent allows five or more runs in their previous game
⚾ Rays at Blue Jays, 7:07 p.m. | TV: MLB.TV
The Pick: Blue Jays (-130): Trends are what it’s all about in the world of sports betting. We’re already riding with the Giants and their massive win streak and we’re also going to roll with another hot team. The Toronto Blue Jays have won 15 of their last 17 games and have been one of the hottest teams in baseball over the past month.
Blue Jays starter Jose Berrios has only allowed five total runs in his last three starts. That’s pretty impressive, considering that those starts came against the Athletics, Tigers and Yankees. In his last two starts, Berrios has received some fantastic run support in the form of 16 runs.
Now, the Rays certainly are no slouch as they’re poised to win the American League East. However, the Blue Jays possess one of the most dangerous lineups in baseball and own a .268 batting average this season, which is good for second in all of baseball. Give me Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and company to keep winning and stay atop the Wild Card race.
Key Trend: Blue Jays are 5-0 in their last five games as a home favorite
