It will be the Cleveland Browns who’ll get to see Justin Fields‘ debut as an NFL starter up close. With Andy Dalton injured, the Chicago Bears will turn to their rookie first-round pick to start the game under center as they look to upset the Browns on the road in Week 3. Both of these teams enter this matchup looking to move to 2-1 on the season, so this game certainly isn’t lacking any storylines.
In this space, however, we’ll specifically be looking at all the different betting angles that this game has to offer. Below, we’ll comb over the line movement throughout the week to see which way the winds are blowing and, of course, give our take on how we see this game playing out. We’ll also highlight a number of our favorite player props. Ready? Let’s get to it and win some money!
All NFL odds via Caesars Sportsbook.
How to watch
Date: Sunday, Sept. 26 | Time: 1 p.m. ET
Location: FirstEnergy Stadium (Cleveland, Ohio)
TV: FOX | Stream: fuboTV (try for free)
Follow: CBS Sports App
Odds: Browns -7.5, O/U 44.5
Line movement
Latest Odds: Cleveland Browns -7.5
Cleveland opened as a 7.5-point favorite, but that number did dip down to -7 on Tuesday. That held until Thursday when it ticked back up to its original number at Browns -7.5 and has stood firm since. There was also a period Wednesday where you could have taken the Bears and the points at +100.
The pick: Browns -7.5. It was a lackluster start for the Browns last week against Houston, but they were able to get things together and pull out the win. I see this as a game for Cleveland to get reenergized against an inferior Bears team. While Fields’ first start certainly warrants some excitement, the overall offense did not look good with him under center last week. That’s not entirely his fault but merely highlights that Chicago has a long way to go before being able to be counted on weekly. Meanwhile, all four rookie quarterbacks have been unable to cover in their first start this season.
Key trend: Bears are 1-5 ATS in their last six games as a road underdog.
Over/Under total
The total opened at 46.5, but that number has only gone down with Fields being solidified as the starter for Chicago. On Wednesday, this total started its dip by going down to 46, and by the end of the day Friday, it was down to 45. This number has even gone down to 44.5 on Saturday on the eve of this head-to-head. The theory here could simply be the Bears taking it slow with their rookie quarterback, who’ll be going up against a talented defense in the Browns.
The pick: Over 44.5. This number has been dragged down quite a bit with not a lot of faith being put in the Bears offense. While Fields could struggle in his first-ever start, I don’t envision a scenario where’s he completely incapable of moving Chicago’s offense down the field. Even if they can’t find the end zone just twice, the Browns offense is capable of taking us the rest of the way to hit this over.
Key trend: Over is 4-1 in Cleveland’s last five games.
Player props to consider
David Montgomery 16.5 rushing attempts: Over 16.5 (+100). There is a scenario where Fields chews into Montgomery’s touches, but I see Matt Nagy leaning on him early to allow his rookie quarterback to get his feet wet. Cleveland’s defense is pretty stingy against the run (77.5 yards allowed per game), but we’re looking for volume rather than efficiency here for Montgomery, who totaled 20 carries last week.
Odell Beckham Jr. 45.5 receiving yards: Over (-115). Welcome back, OBJ! The Browns receiver sat out Cleveland’s first two games of the year as he continued to recover from a torn ACL he suffered last season. Now, he has no injury designation should be a full go in Week 3. On top of Beckham returning to full strength, he could see an increased target share with Jarvis Landry on IR. In his seven games played last year, Beckham went over this total four times.
Baker Mayfield 19.5 completions: Over (-130). Mayfield has been highly efficient to begin the season, leading the league in completion percentage. This total toes the line of his season average of 20 completions per game, but I’m leaning towards him going over which he did seven times last season.
