The Packers and 49ers will put a bow on the third Sunday of the NFL season during a primetime showdown at Levi’s Stadium. Green Bay is coming into this head-to-head after earning its first win of the season during which both Aaron Rodgers and Aaron Jones accounted for four touchdowns. Meanwhile, the Niners enter their home opener at 2-0. However, the injury bug has continued to bite this team, particularly in the backfield. That’ll be a hurdle they’ll need to overcome if they want to remain undefeated on the young season.
Both teams enter this game 1-1 ATS on the season, and that is where we’ll be focusing our attention in this space. Below, we’re going to cover all the different betting angles that this game has to offer. Along with a breakdown of the line movement throughout the week, we give our picks for this contest and highlight a number of player props we’re circling for this NFC head-to-head.
All NFL odds via Caesars Sportsbook.
How to watch
Date: Sunday, Sept. 26 | Time: 8:20 p.m. ET
Location: Levi’s Stadium (Santa Clara, CA)
TV: NBC | Stream: fuboTV (try for free)
Follow: CBS Sports App
Odds: Packers -3, O/U 50
Line movement
Latest Odds: San Francisco 49ers -3
The 49ers opened as a four-point favorite in this matchup, and this number reached as high as -4.5 on Sunday evening. However, following Green Bay’s impressive win over the Lions on Monday Night Football, confidence seems to have been restored in the Packers, as this number has been dragged down to San Francisco -3 as of Saturday.
The pick: Packers +3. Even if it was against a lowly Lions defense, you have to like the way the Packers responded after a lackluster start to the year in Week 1. Aaron Rodgers and the rest of the Packers offense look like they are capable of being an elite unit and should pose a number of problems for the 49ers. Meanwhile, San Francisco’s offense — which is predicated on a strong running game — could see some hiccups Sunday with a number of their backs injured. I really liked this line at 3.5 earlier in the week, but I still think this will be a close enough contest to take the field goal advantage with Green Bay.
Key trend: 49ers are 10-25-1 in their last 36 games as a favorite.
Over/Under total
Points are expected to comes in bunches in this matchup. After opening up at 47.5 last Sunday, this number skyrocketed to 50 by the end of the week. Of course, there are a number of factors at play here. Not only are bettors more emboldened to take the Over after seeing the Packers offense on Monday night, but with the Niners having a hobbled backfield, it should create even more passing opportunities in this game.
The pick: Over 50. This is a big number, but we’re also talking about two potent offenses in the NFL. While the 49ers have the capability of grinding things to a halt with their running game, I’m not sure they’ll be able to do so simply due to the injuries at that position. Their season average in points allowed per game totals out to 49, but I think we’ll tick above that Sunday night.
Key trend: Over is 4-0 in Packers’ last four games following a straight-up win.
Aaron Rodgers props
- Passing touchdowns: 1.5 (Over -210, Under +170)
- Passing yards: 274.5 (Over -115, Under -115)
- Rushing yards: 6.5 (Over -120, Under -110)
- Longest pass completion: 36.5 (Over -115, Under -115)
- Interceptions: 0.5 (Over +140, Under -170)
There’s not a ton of value in Rodgers’ over in touchdown passes, although I think he throws for two scores in this matchup. I do like the Over on his passing yards total as well at -115. History has shown us that Rodgers plays at a high level against his hometown team, which passed on him during the 2005 NFL Draft. Against the 49ers in his career, Rodgers is 5-3 and has completed 65.7% of his throws for 292 yards per game, 18 touchdowns and just two picks.
Jimmy Garoppolo props
- Passing touchdowns: 1.5 (Over -120, Under -110)
- Passing yards: 242.5 (Over -115, Under -115)
- Pass attempts: 31.5 (Over -105, Under -125)
- Completions: 22.5 (Over +100, Under -130)
- Longest pass completion: 34.5 (Over -115, Under -115)
- Interceptions: 0.5 (Over +100, Under -130)
Given the lack of depth at running back, I expect the 49ers to be passing more in this game, which has me leaning towards the Over on Garoppolo’s pass attempts prop of 31.5. In his 32 regular season starts with San Francisco, Garoppolo has gone Over this total 13 times (40.6%).
Player props to consider
Deebo Samuel 5.5 rushing yards: Over (-125). With the 49ers thin at running back, it wouldn’t surprise me to see Kyle Shanahan utilize Samuel’s skills out of the backfield a bit more often in this game. Last week he rushed twice for eight yards and has been used sparingly in this role in the past. Even if San Francisco draws up one or two sweeps for Samuel, he would have a good chance to go over this number.
George Kittle anytime touchdown (+140). Kittle has started off the season a bit slower than most have expected, but this could be a spot where he can get his year back on track. With limited bodies in the backfield, the 49ers will likely lean even more heavily on Kittle in the red zone, giving him a great opportunity to score his first touchdown of 2021. Meanwhile, Green Bay’s defense struggled to contain T.J. Hockenson last week.
