After escaping with an 85-80 win over the Seattle Storm in the second round of the playoffs, the fifth-seeded Phoenix Mercury will now face the No. 2-seeded Las Vegas Aces in the second semifinal matchup in the WNBA playoffs. Game 1 of the best-of-five series tips off on Tuesday, but before then let’s dive into how each team got here and break down both sides of this matchup.
The Aces have been a title contender since the season began, and despite losing Angel McCoughtry to a torn ACL, Las Vegas has been dominant from start to finish this season. After getting swept in the WNBA Finals a season ago, the Aces are back with revenge on their mind, but first they’ll have to get past a battle-tested Mercury team coming off a thrilling overtime win over the Storm in their single-elimination playoff game. The Mercury have overcome a slow start to the regular season and key injuries to get to this point in the postseason, and they won’t be an easy matchup for the heavily favored Aces.
Ahead of Tuesday night’s Game 1, let’s take a closer look at this best-of-five series:
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(2) Las Vegas Aces vs. (5) Phoenix Mercury
(All times Eastern)
- Game 1: Mercury at Aces | Tuesday, Sept. 28, 10 p.m. | TV: ESPN 2 | Stream: fuboTV (Try for free)
- Game 2: Mercury at Aces | Thursday, Sept. 30, 10 p.m. | TV: ESPN 2 | Stream: fuboTV (Try for free)
- Game 3: Aces at Mercury | Sunday, Oct. 3, 3 p.m. | TV: ABC | Stream: fuboTV (Try for free)
- Game 4*: Aces at Mercury | Wednesday, Oct. 6, TBD | TV: ESPN 2
- Game 5*: Mercury at Aces | Friday, Oct. 8, TBD | TV: ESPN 2
*If necessary
Players to watch
Aces: Liz Cambage. After opting out of last season due to concerns over COVID-19, Cambage came back this season and performed at an All-Star level. Last season she watched at home while her team was swept in the WNBA Finals, and now she’ll have the chance to help her team win its first franchise title. She’s a dominant presence in the post on offense, and she’ll make life difficult for Brittney Griner on the Mercury. Speaking of which …
Mercury: Brittney Griner. In the first two playoff games for the Mercury the game plan has been clear: get Griner the ball and let her go to work. Both the New York Liberty and the Seattle Storm lacked the size to match up adequately with Griner, which meant she was double-teamed every time she touched the ball. It created open looks for her teammates on the wing, which contributed to Phoenix’s success. But that will change against Cambage, who is more than capable of keeping Griner in check during this series.
Three keys that will decide the series
1. Las Vegas’ depth. The Aces finished the 2021 regular season with seven players who averaged 10 or more points a game, which is the most in league history. So saying Las Vegas has depth would be a massive understatement. It has the reigning back-to-back Sixth Woman of the Year winner in Dearica Hamby on their bench, as well as the 2021 AP Sixth Woman of the Year in Kelsey Plum in its second unit. Plum returned this season after missing last year due to an Achilles tear and averaged a career-high 4.8 points and 3.6 assists.
Once the resident starting guard for the Aces, Plum embraced a bench role and thrived in her new position. Plum and Hamby average 26.4 points combined each game, which is the sole reason Las Vegas ranks second in the league in bench points. That kind of depth is crucial to have in the postseason, and it’s something that certainly gives it the upper hand against Phoenix.
The Mercury will be tasked with trying to either contain Plum and Hamby’s scoring off the bench, or get increased production from some of their bench players to match that output. Against the Liberty, that production came from third-year guard Sophie Cunningham, who put up a career-high 21 points, including 6 of 7 from deep. She played a significant role in Phoenix’s win against New York as franchise legend Diana Taurasi was sidelined with a left ankle injury. But Cunningham was far less impactful against the Storm, recording zero points on just two shot attempts in nine minutes of action.
Phoenix will need some support from the likes of Cunningham, Shey Peddy and Kia Vaughn to combat a versatile and deep Aces team, otherwise this could be a quick series.
2. Frontcourt battle. There’s really solid matchups all over the floor in this series, with Diggins-Smith and Taurasi going head-to-head in the backcourt against Jackie Young and Chelsea Gray, but the star attraction will be down in the frontcourt. The Mercury employ a frontcourt featuring Griner and Brianna Turner, both of whom made each of the All-Defensive teams this season. Turner has grown into a defensive stalwart in her three seasons in the league, and finished in fourth place for Defensive Player of the Year for the second consecutive season.
Though Turner doesn’t put up gaudy offensive numbers like Griner, she’s a workhorse on the other end of the floor. She averaged a career-high 9.5 rebounds a game this season in addition to 1.4 blocks, which ranks eighth in the league. Together with Griner, the Mercury limit their opponents to just 54.6 percent shooting within five feet of the rim, which ranks first in the league. That defensive pressure has remained true in the postseason so far, but against the Aces they’ll be tested for the first time against two opposing bigs who can wreak havoc on offense.
The Aces are led by last season’s MVP A’ja Wilson, and if it weren’t for the Connecticut Sun and Jonquel Jones being the overshadowing story of the year, her 18.3 points and 9.3 rebounds — the latter of which is a career high — would’ve gotten more widespread attention in the MVP race, which is expected to be won by Jones. Las Vegas only goes as far as Wilson can take it, and her versatility on offense makes her a difficult cover for opposing teams. On defense, she can act as a disruptor down in the paint and force turnovers to get her team out in transition for an easy bucket.
Then there’s Cambage, who like Wilson is a dominant presence on offense. She ranked 10th in the league in rebounds per game (Wilson ranks eighth), and averages the fourth most blocks in the WNBA (1.6). Their size alone causes headaches for opposing guards trying to drive toward the basket, and going against the Mercury they’ll make it difficult for Griner to get off a clean look at the rim.
This series could be won with frontcourt play, and the Aces have the edge here because of Turner’s lack of offensive development for Phoenix. But that doesn’t mean the Mercury can be written off so early, in large part due to the next player on this list.
3. How healthy is Diana Taurasi? In Phoenix’s win over Seattle on Sunday, Taurasi was seen grimacing around the floor and hobbling up and down the court. And yet she still finished the game with 14 points, six of which came in overtime to lift her team to a win. It’s just a testament to her legendary status, and even if she’s not at 100 percent with her ankle you still can’t give her space to get her shot off. That will play a big factor in this series against the Aces, because while Taurasi has battled with injuries all season long, she still can’t be discounted in her abilities. It was evident against the Storm that she can still be impactful, and Las Vegas can’t afford to forget that.
The days off between games will also only allow Taurasi to recoup for the next matchup, so she could be even closer to 100 percent in time for Game 3, which comes two days after Game 2. The Mercury showed in their game against the Liberty that they can win without Taurasi if needed, but during the regular season the team went 7-9 without her, compared to 12-4 when she was in the lineup. It’s clear the Mercury are far better when Taurasi is on the floor, and if she is able to stay healthy throughout this entire series, then it gives Phoenix a good shot at pulling off an upset with her and Diggins-Smith in the backcourt.
Prediction
The Mercury have pulled off two impressive wins so far in the playoffs, and there is something to be said about the rest vs. rhythm debate that often takes place in the WNBA postseason. However, Phoenix barely escaped with a win against the lowly Liberty, and it faced a Storm team that was without its best player in Breanna Stewart. Injuries and lack of experience won’t come into play against an Aces team that has beaten the Mercury twice already this season. With the amount of depth at Las Vegas’ disposal, and the 1-2 punch of Wilson and Cambage down low, the Aces should come out of this series. It just won’t be easy. Pick: Aces in five
