Many in the industry, including myself, speculated that there would be some pretty serious regression when it came to Fantasy production from NFL quarterbacks. After all, 2020 was historic, with four quarterbacks topping 29 Fantasy points and 12 scoring at least 25.6. Considering we didn’t have training camp and there were no fans in the stands, the natural thing was to assume that was the outlier.
That assumption appears to be incorrect.
Through three weeks in 2021, there are six quarterbacks averaging at least 29 Fantasy points per game. Russell Wilson is averaging 27 Fantasy points per game and ranks ninth at the position. There are a couple of surprises in those top nine, Derek Carr and Kirk Cousins to be precise. And maybe you view Matthew Stafford as a surprise too, we certainly didn’t think he’d be this good.
There are also some early disappointments, with Dak Prescott, Aaron Rodgers, Joe Burrow, and the rookies all well below where they were drafted. I mostly think the veterans will be okay, but I’m pretty worried about the younger guys.
But that’s not really the point of this discussion. The point is that the bar is still exceptionally high to be a starting quarterback in a one-quarterback league. And as Daniel Jones taught us last week, it’s a big ask for a below-average quarterback to hit the mark.
So what do you do if you’ve committed to streaming and Daniel Jones, Teddy Bridgewater, or Jameis Winston is the only quarterback on your roster? You have two choices, and it’s dependent on how deep the rest of your roster is. If you have the depth, especially at wide receiver, I’d try to deal for one of the dozen quarterbacks we actually feel good starting each week. it would be very helpful if you can find a team that has two good quarterbacks rostered. But if you’re thin everywhere else, I’m probably just going to keep playing the game, I’ll have more options below.
The one thing I wouldn’t do is trade a starting running back that I can’t replace for a good quarterback. No matter how much you dislike the streamers below.
Let’s get to the rest of the preview:
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Week 4 QB Preview
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Numbers to know
- 1,203 — Derek Carr has thrown for a league-leading 1,203 yards in victories over the Ravens, Steelers, and Dolphins.
- 47 — Tom Brady’s Tampa Bay Buccaneers lead the NFL with 47 pass attempts per game.
- 9 — Justin Fields was sacked nine times in his NFL debut.
- 23.3 — Kyler Murray rushing yards per game, less than half his 51.2 in 2020.
- 29.5 — Kirk Cousins is averaging nearly 30 Fantasy points per game and he’s currently QB5.
- 7 — Trevor Lawrence and Zach Wilson have each thrown seven interceptions in their first three NFL games. They’ve also combined to throw seven touchdown passes.
- 5 — Five teams have attempted fewer passes than the Ravens through three games. The Seahawks, Bears, Bengals, Browns, and Saints.
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Matchups that matter
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Waiver Wire Targets
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Heath’s projections