Prisco’s NFL Week 4 odds, picks: Rams win but Cardinals cover in thriller, Tom Brady reigns over Patriots

With one NFL game left in September this Thursday night (Jaguars-Bengals), let’s just say my NFL picks had a bad month.

Let’s go, October.

After three weeks of stumbling around, it’s time to pick it up. I went 7-9 against the spread last week, dropping my season record to 22-24-2, while my 10-6 straight up record brought my season mark to 26-22.

What really got me last week was the Best Bets on the Pick Six Podcast. I went 2-4 to drop my season record to 10-9. That, quite simply, isn’t good enough. How did the Vikings-Seahawks game not go over? 

Now that October is here, it’s time to get it going. The goal for Halloween is to be well above .500 with my Best Bets and against the spread overall.

Let’s get on with Week 4.

Jacksonville Jaguars (+7.5) at Cincinnati Bengals

The Bengals are 2-1 and have a real shot to go to 3-1 in this game. Cincinnati is playing solid defense and the offense is doing enough in the passing game. Look for Joe Burrow, last year’s top pick, to slightly outplay Trevor Lawrence, this year’s top pick. The Bengals are 6-2 against the spread in their last eight at home. But the number is too big here. They win, but it’s close.

Pick: Bengals 28, Jaguars 24

Tennessee Titans (-7.5) at New York Jets

The Jets have major issues on offense right now, but the Titans have defensive issues. So is this the game Zach Wilson gets it going? I don’t think so. The Titans will go into New York and win their third straight to get to 3-1 as Derrick Henry runs wild. 

Pick: Titans 30, Jets 10

Kansas City Chiefs (-7) at Philadelphia Eagles

The Eagles looked awful in losing to the Cowboys Monday night, while the Chiefs are coming off a turnover-plagued loss to the Chargers. The Eagles tried to get into a shootout with the Cowboys, and it backfired. They can’t do that here, but they will have no choice when they are forced into it. Patrick Mahomes will get back on track to lead the Chiefs to a big victory. 

Pick: Chiefs 34, Eagles 21

Carolina Panthers at Dallas Cowboys (-5) 

The Panthers are undefeated, but they haven’t exactly faced a tough schedule. This will be their proving ground. The Cowboys looked great in beating up the Eagles Monday night. Without Christian McCaffrey, the Panthers won’t be the same team. Dallas will force Sam Darnold into some turnovers that turn into points. Dak Prescott will play well again. 

Pick: Cowboys 27, Panthers 20

New York Giants at New Orleans Saints (-7.5) 

The Saints are finally playing a real home game after having their opener moved to Jacksonville, followed by two straight road games because of hurricane damage. They impressed last week winning at New England, while the Giants haven’t won a game yet. The Saints are great in October, winning 22 of their last 24 in the month. The Saints will have the Superdome rocking as they blow out the Giants.

Pick: Saints 27, Giants 13

Cleveland Browns at Minnesota Vikings (+2)

The Vikings are coming off their first victory, and the offense has been on fire the last two weeks. The Browns were impressive on defense last week against the Bears, but this is a much bigger challenge. I think the Vikings stay hot on offense and pull off a mild upset. 

Pick: Vikings 27, Browns 26

Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears (-3)

The Lions are coming off that heartbreaking loss to the Ravens, while the Bears stunk it up against the Browns. Rookie Justin Fields had a rough go of it. I think being back home against a Lions team that doesn’t rush as well as the Browns will help him get going a bit. Chicago is the better team. They will win it behind their defense. 

Pick: Bears 21, Lions 13 

Houston Texans at Buffalo Bills (-16.5)

This will be the first road start for Texans rookie quarterback Davis Mills. That’s a challenge any time, but even more so against this defense. The Texans also have defensive issues, which Josh Allen will abuse. This is ugly. 

Pick: Bills 33, Texans 10

Indianapolis Colts at Miami Dolphins (-1.5)

This is a must-win early game for both teams. The Colts are playing consecutive road game. But they do get a break facing their former quarterback in Jacoby Brissett, who starts again in place of Tua Tagovailoa. The Dolphins played well at times against the Raiders and I think they will here as well. 

Pick: Dolphins 26, Colts 20

Washington Football Team (-1.5) at Atlanta Falcons

The Falcons won on the road against the Giants, showing some life after being down in the fourth quarter. Washington has been the biggest disappointment so far this season. Their defense has been bad. At some point, you’d expect more from that unit. This will be that game. Washington will win behind a defense that comes alive — finally. 

Pick: Washington 21, Falcons 17

Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers (-2.5)

The Seahawks are playing consecutive road games and didn’t look good on defense again last week. The 49ers are coming off a tough loss to the Packers, losing on a field goal on the final play. The 49ers showed life on offense in the second half, only to fall short. This should be a high-scoring game. 49ers take it. 

Pick: 49ers 30, Seahawks 24

Arizona Cardinals (+4.5) at Los Angeles Rams

This is the game of the week, featuring two undefeated teams. The Rams are playing the better football, best in the NFL. They are also at home, so they have a big edge. But Arizona can score points in a hurry. Their offense will keep this close, but Matt Stafford will get the best of the Arizona defense.

Pick: Rams 37, Cardinals 33

Pittsburgh Steelers at Green Bay Packers (-6.5)

The Packers have won two straight, while the Steelers have lost two in a row. Pittsburgh’s offense has been dreadful the past few games. Green Bay’s offense has really come to life after a Week 1 stinker. The Steelers don’t have the same defense as they’ve had in recent years. Aaron Rodgers will get the best of the Steelers in this one. 

Pick: Packers 27, Steelers 17 

Baltimore Ravens at Denver Broncos (-1.5)

The Broncos are undefeated, but they haven’t defeated a team with a victory yet. This will be their first major challenge. But the Ravens are playing consecutive road games and barely hung on to beat the Lions last week. The Broncos defense will do a great job against Lamar Jackson to limit him some, and Denver will do just enough on offense. 

Pick: Broncos 23, Ravens 20

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-6.5) at New England Patriots

This is the Brady Bowl as Tom Brady faces his former team and former coach. The emotions will be high for Brady. But when it gets down to playing football, Tampa Bay is the much better team. They are playing consecutive road games, but it won’t matter. Brady gets the best of his former team and rookie quarterback Mac Jones struggles. 

Pick: Bucs 28, Patriots 19

Las Vegas Raiders at Los Angeles Chargers (-3.5)

The Raiders are 3-0, and have defeated three teams that each won 10 games a year ago. That’s impressive. Derek Carr is playing MVP football and the offense can be explosive. This has the makings of a shootout between Carr and Justin Herbert, who was outstanding against the Chiefs. I think that continues here as the Chargers give the Raiders their first loss of the season. 

Pick: Chargers 36, Raiders 30