Why tonight’s vital NL East battle will come down to pitching, plus other best bets for Wednesday

Happy Wednesday, everybody. I’ve decided to show my face around here again after taking an absolute bath with my picks on Monday night. While the NFC Least Principle lives on, it didn’t have its best showing on Monday as the Cowboys obliterated the Eagles. Still, in typical American fashion, I have decided that I will not accept any of the blame and instead shift it elsewhere.

Nice gameplan, Nick Sirianni. If I had a quarterback who isn’t known for being the best passing quarterback in the NFL, I’d definitely only run the ball twice myself. Now, you might say that there were a lot of RPOs called, and the way the Cowboys defended them dictated the pass option. To that, I’d say, just call a run play then, dummy.

Anyway, yeah, Monday night sucked. Watching Dak Prescott throw his third touchdown of the night late in the fourth quarter after the game was already over to give us an 0-3 night felt was like twisting the knife. 

• The Chicago Bears took a significant step toward moving to the suburbs.
• Richard Sherman has a new home.
• Any NBA player who chooses not to comply with local vaccine mandates will not be paid for games missed.
• If Clemson isn’t going to win the ACC, who will?

OK, let’s make some money.

All times Eastern, and all odds via Caesars Sportsbook

🔥 The Hot Ticket

⚾ Phillies at Braves, 7:20 p.m. | TV: MLB.TV

The Pick: Under 8 (-105): This is a massive game for both teams. Atlanta enters the evening with a magic number of three, and since it’s the Phillies chasing, a win tonight would reduce that number to one. Conversely, a loss for the Phillies would all but wipe out their dwindling hopes of an NL East title, which is their only path to the postseason. Tonight also presents us with an intriguing pitching matchup, as Max Fried will start for the Braves while Aaron Nola goes for the Phillies.

Fried never garners much national recognition, but he’s been one of the better pitchers in baseball all season long. He doesn’t strike many hitters out, and his walk rate is a bit high (part of the reason nobody mentions him when discussing top pitchers), but he’s always done an excellent job of getting groundballs and limiting hard contact. That’s how he’s able to maintain an ERA of 3.12. As for Nola, his 4.64 ERA is misleading, as he’s carrying an above-average strikeout rate of 30.3% and a strong walk rate of 5.1%. He’s just been snakebitten in a couple of bad starts that inflate his overall ERA.

But that works to our benefit a little tonight, as the total is too high. Given the quality of pitcher on the mound, the stakes at play, and the fact both offenses have been somewhat mediocre as of late, the under is the smart play.

Key Trend: The under is 5-2 in the last seven meetings

Here’s what SportsLine is saying about the game: Two of SportsLine’s top experts, Matt Severance and John Bollman, are on the same side of the money line for this game tonight.

💰 The Picks

⚾ MLB

Padres at Dodgers, 10:10 p.m. | TV: ESPN

The Pick: Dodgers -1.5 (-140) — To the Padres’ credit, they were extremely aggressive over the winter and during the season to try and build a contender in what is probably the toughest division in baseball. Unfortunately for the Padres, this isn’t the first time they’ve pushed all their chips into the middle of the table and gone bust. Now they’re playing out the string and face a Dodgers team that has won 101 games already but is still chasing the Giants in the division.

That means the Dodgers are desperately trying to avoid a one-game playoff against St. Louis to move on in the postseason because baseball continues to have the dumbest postseason set up in sports. Anyway, that’s what this pick boils down to more than anything. The Dodgers need to win and have Max Scherzer on the mound. The Padres want to get this disappointing season over with and are sending Ryan Weathers and his 5.01 ERA to the mound. It’s not always complicated.

Key Trend: The Dodgers have won 53 of the last 75 meetings.

⚽ Europa League

Sparta Prague vs. Rangers, Thursday, 12:45 p.m. | TV: Paramount+

The Pick: Rangers (+160) — Betting on the Europa League can be tricky. Often, you think you’ll just blindly bet the big name clubs from the bigger leagues against smaller sides because they’re so much better. What you have to consider, though, is that those teams don’t always want to be playing these matches and will often play reserves. But where you can often find value is in matches between teams like this that play in smaller leagues that don’t receive much attention.

Rangers play in the Scottish Premiership, but while Scotland’s top league isn’t one of the strongest in the world, Rangers are a quality team. If they played in the Premier League, Rangers would likely finish between 12th and 15th. They’re also a team that will approach this competition seriously, as it’s an excellent way to spread the club’s brand and make money. Sparta Prague plays in the Czech First League and would easily be relegation fodder in any of Europe’s top leagues. Rangers won the Scottish league last season and lead it again right now. They’re the much better team, and this price doesn’t accurately reflect how much better they are than Prague.

Key Trend: Rangers have not lost any of their last six matches as a favorite.

🔒 SportsLine Pick of the Day: The Advanced Computer Model’s favorite MLB play of the night is a money line play in tonight’s game between the Houston Astros and Tampa Bay Rays.

🏌 Sanderson Farms Championship Top 10 Props

We’re betting on each of the following five golfers to finish in the top 10 this weekend.

• Zach Johnson (+650)
• Joel Dahmen (+750)
• Nick Hardy (+1200)
• Alex Smalley (+1200)
• Brendan Steele (+1200)