2021 NFL Week 4 Odds, Picks: Three undefeated teams go down, Bucs thrash Pats in Belichick vs. Brady game

The 2021 NFL season is bringing the freaking gas! Have we had a truly bad day of football yet? These prime time games have been incredible all season long. Maybe you could complain about the Week 2 1 p.m. slate. Week 4 looks ready to deliver — there’s a bunch of spicy divisional matchups out west and this little matter of Bucs at Pats.

If you haven’t heard about this game, you should probably go pick up Seth Wickersham’s new book “It’s Better to Be Feared” (drops October 12) about the Patriots dynasty. Even if you have heard about this game, like the majority of human beings currently living on planet Earth, you should still buy the book.

It’s Tom Brady vs. Bill Belichick, in New England. The number of times we get to see a Hall of Famer with more than a decade of service for one team coming back to play his old team is pretty limited. Joe Montana with the Chiefs, Brett Favre with the Vikings and Peyton Manning with the Broncos all stand out. The former QB was 2-1 in those matchups (Manning lost to Andrew Luck and the Colts in 2012) and the motivation to beat your old team is very, very clear leading up to the game. It’s probably why Favre went to Minnesota. 

Brady didn’t seek out Tampa Bay for this game. But he knows the score. He left New England, won a Super Bowl and Bill missed the playoffs. The streets are talking and the chatter will get louder if Tahwmy rolls into town and torches the Pats defense. 

It’s the greatest player of all time versus the greatest coach of all time. It’s rare for an insanely-hyped game to justify the publicity but this one meets the mark. 

All NFL odds are via Caesars Sportsbook

NFL Week 4 Picks

Bengals at Jaguars

Thursday, 8:20 p.m. ET

TV: NFL Network | Stream: fuboTV (click here)

Follow: CBS Sports App

The Bengals seem TOO easy for a runaway win here. Jacksonville is on a short week on the road, the offense and defense have been bad and Cincy’s defense is playing much better than expected. There’s actually a fun future for this game: Zac Taylor to win Coach of the Year. He’s 29-1 or thereabouts. The Bengals have the Jaguars, Jets and Lions in the next six weeks and get five of seven games at home to close out the year. If Cincy wins nine or 10 games I don’t know how Taylor doesn’t take the hardware. It’s a pizza money bet so don’t get loose. You can get loose on deploying Joe Mixon here, though, as he should be the focal point of the Bengals offense. If the Bengals get an early lead, this game goes under as they run, run, run. I’m banking on that happening but I wouldn’t make Burrow and Co. a best bet as the Jags could storm through the back door. 

The pick: Bengals 28, Jaguars 17

Props, Best Bets: Joe Burrow completions under 21.5, Joe Mixon over rush yards 82.5, Zac Taylor COY 29-1

Browns at Vikings

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

TV: CBS | Stream: Paramount+ (click here)

A battle between two run-heavy teams might profile as boring, but there is a good shot of us getting a ton of points in this matchup between Mike Zimmer and old offensive coordinator Kevin Stefanski. The Vikings want to pound the ball and play defense, but such a strategy is problematic without, you know, a defense. The Browns should be able to sling the ball for play action shots from Baker Mayfield and Minnesota has shown a willingness this year to actually cut Kirk Cousins loose, with the oddly polarizing quarterback attempting 42, 32 and 38 pass attempts on the year. The Browns sport a top 10 defense on the year, but are substantially better at limiting the run than the pass and won’t be facing Justin Fields again this week. I like Minnesota to emerge from a shootout with a critical win.

The pick: Vikings 35, Browns 31

Props, Best Bets: Over 51.5

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Texans at Bills

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

TV: CBS | Stream: Paramount+ (click here)  

This is an absurd line this early in the season, but who is going to take the Texans? It would require a backdoor situation in my opinion and the Bills are an aggressive team late when it comes to keeping their foot on the gas. Josh Allen shook off some early season cobwebs with a five-touchdown performance last week and is poised for another monster outing against Houston. Only a blowout can prevent him from another MVP-level performance. Stefon Diggs has been kind of quiet this season — I would bank on a BIG game from him this weekend.

The Pick: Bills 35, Texans 10

Bets: Stefon Diggs over 6.5 receptions, Diggs over 83.5 receiving yards

Colts at Dolphins

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

TV: CBS | Stream: Paramount+ (click here)  

This line is ridiculous. The Colts are not currently a good football team. I don’t want to beat a dead horse (get it?) here but Carson Wentz has TWO SPRAINED ANKLES. Again, the max number of sprained ankles any person can have at any given time. After losing to the Titans, there is a good chance the Colts sit Wentz, reduce his snap count (anything under 70 percent and they don’t surrender a first-round pick for him), let him get healthy and try to make a run midway through the season. This line is Dolphins -5.5 minimum if Jacob Eason or Brett Hundley is out there. The Jacoby Brissett revenge game is heavily underrated too. Miami has a better defense and enough offense to win this one by double digits.

The Pick: Dolphins 21, Colts 13

Bets: Dolphins -1.5

Panthers at Cowboys

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

TV: FOX | Stream: fuboTV (click here)  

The Sam Darnold bounceback season has been incredible but the Cowboys are just a bad matchup for an injured Panthers team. When Christian McCaffrey went out with a hamstring injury against the Texans last Thursday, Carolina’s offense stagnated. He’s the perfect outlet for Darnold and also much better in pass protection than the rest of Carolina’s running backs. The Panthers are down Jaycee Horn. A C.J. Henderson trade won’t fix that in the first week. Carolina’s defense is good but if you want to beat it, you need a good offensive line and a plethora of pass catchers. Hello, Dallas. 

The Pick: Cowboys 35, Panthers 17

Bets: Cowboys -5, CeeDee Lamb over 72.5 receiving yards

Chiefs at Eagles

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

TV: CBS | Stream: Paramount+ (click here)  

The Chiefs are 1-2 three weeks into the year and below .500 for the first time since Week 10 in 2015, a crazy stat and a testament to how good a coach Andy Reid really is. Reid had a health scare at the end of last week but is cleared to coach in his old stomping grounds. KC should be able to throw up some big numbers against a banged up Eagles defense pretty easily, but it’s kind of hard to imagine the Chiefs being able to slow down Jalen Hurts and Co. completely. Nick Sirriani got roasted this week for failing to commit to the run, so one can reasonably expect more than two rushes for explosive playmaker Miles Sanders. This line is probably inflated after an ugly loss to the Cowboys on Monday night, so I’ll take some value with the Eagles here.

The Pick: Chiefs 31, Eagles 24

Bets: Travis Kelce over receptions, receiving yards

Lions at Bears

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

TV: FOX | Stream: fuboTV (click here)  

The Lions have so much backdoor cover promise to them this season. Dan Campbell has a bottom-five roster in the NFL and he’s getting top-five effort from his team. My biggest concern here is the emotional hangover from the brutal loss to the Ravens on that Justin Tucker record-breaking 66-yard field goal. The Lions defensive front has been sneaky good and the Bears offensive line is simply not good. It doesn’t matter whether Justin Fields, Andy Dalton or Nick Foles is starting — the offense isn’t working. Love the under in this fun little slopfest.

The Pick: Lions 17, Bears 14

Bets: Under 42.5, D’Andre Swift over receptions and receiving yards

Titans at Jets

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

TV: CBS | Stream: Paramount+ (click here)  

The Teaser Special Game of the Week here, with the Titans laying more than a touchdown in New York against the Jets. I don’t know if you can actually take the Titans, even though I think they cover. But you can tease the heck out of them this week: throw Tennessee in with the Chiefs/Bucs/Bengals and you can do some damage. I suppose the Titans would be a team the Jets could exploit from an offensive standpoint, but 20-25 carries from Derrick Henry should put the Jets defense to bed.

The Pick: Titans 28, Jets 14

Bets: Maybe Henry over receptions based on the usage

WFT at Falcons 

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

TV: FOX | Stream: fuboTV (click here)  

The Falcons are hot trash and absolutely miz on offense right now. I’m not sure how they found a way to win against the Giants, but they did. And while I have no interest in backing them at any point of this season, Atlanta as a home dog against a pretty terrible Washington defense makes a lot of sense. This becoming The Chase Young Game is petrifying, but the Falcons could slap together a pretty soft win streak over the next few weeks.

The Pick: Falcons 21, Washington 17

Bets: Falcons ML, Kyle Pitts over receptions and yards (buying low)

Giants at Saints

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

TV: FOX | Stream: fuboTV (click here)   

The new-look Saints are 2-1 and returning home for the first time since mother nature wrecked havoc on the Bayou. This Superdome crowd should be ROWDY. But this is not your usual Saints team: they are top five in defensive DVOA and merely average on offense. Jameis Winston has looked, well, like Jameis Winston. One week he’s throwing for five touchdowns, the next week he’s throwing horrific interceptions and the week after that he’s throwing touchdown passes while being bent in half and not being able to see where the ball is going. The Giants are just terrible and I’m worried about the environment here for Daniel Jones, but I’m not sure this should be a full touchdown.   

The Pick: Saints 24, Giants 20

Bets: Nope

Ravens at Broncos

Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET

TV: CBS | Stream: Paramount+ (click here)  

The Broncos look like a legit playoff contender, with a strong roster, a great defense, a good running game and Teddy Bridgewater playing the best football maybe of his career. But — and this is a big but — all of these platitudes are borne out of Denver slapping around the Jets, Giants and Jags. That’s maybe the three worst teams in football. Baltimore is not a bad team and should be able to run on a Broncos front seven dealing with a bunch of injuries. The defensive injuries for Denver are so bad (DL, LB) against this Ravens offense. It could be a big breakout day for Mark Andrews via Lamar Jackson.

The Pick: Ravens 28, Broncos 24

Bets: Nope

Cardinals at Rams

Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET

TV: FOX | Stream: fuboTV (click here)  

Huge early-season NFC West matchup between a pair of 3-0 teams with a jacked-up total (55) and the Rams getting an immense amount of respect fresh off their dismantling of the defending Super Bowl champs. Matthew Stafford and Kyler Murray join Patrick Mahomes as the top three MVP candidates per Vegas odds and the winner of this matchup probably surges into the lead. I’m not entirely sure how either team slows down the other here: the Cardinals have some serious question marks in their defensive backfield and you can bet Matthew Stafford will find a way to exploit those issues with Cooper Kupp/Robert Woods roaming and DeSean Jackson gunning for deep shots. The Rams defense looked a lot less dangerous against the Buccaneers but is still clearly an above-average unit. Jalen Ramsey following a banged-up DeAndre Hopkins around is concerning but the Cards have enough weapons available to push the ball down the field and I’m not sure Kyler is necessarily stoppable at this point. 

The Pick: Rams 35, Cardinals 28

Bets: DeAndre Hopkins under receiving yards

Seahawks at 49ers

Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET

TV: FOX | Stream: fuboTV (click here)  

Another massive NFC West matchup in the 4 p.m. hour. The 49ers fell to 2-1 after a tough loss to the Packers in Week 3, while the Seahawks dropped to 1-2 and causing a high level of concern in the greater Seattle area. Russell Wilson is playing great football but Tyler Lockett’s absence would be concerning for this offense. More concerning for the Seahawks? The defense. It’s a problem, particularly against the pass. If the 49ers can protect Jimmy Garoppolo, he should be able to find a dangerous group of weapons running free against a bad secondary. The same can be said for Russ too, which is why expecting a shootout here wouldn’t be a bad idea.

The Pick: 49ers 31, Seahawks 28

Bets: Brandon Aiyuk overs on a buy low

Steelers at Packers

Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET

TV: CBS | Stream: Paramount+ (click here)  

The Steelers are under a ton of scrutiny right now because of their struggles and, more importantly, Ben Roethlisberger’s appearing less than stellar from a physical standpoint. This shouldn’t be a shock given how many throws he’s attempted over the last few years, his age and/or just generally watching Pittsburgh over the last season and a half or so. Even if he could throw down the field, the Steelers can’t protect him long enough to give him the looks. Green Bay’s defense might not be as good as it was in the first half against the 49ers, but the Packers flashed enough to make me believe they’re better than their 26th ranking by DVOA. The Steelers are just average on defense, and below average if T.J. Watt is out of the game. 

The Pick: Packers 27, Steelers 17

Bets: Packers -6.5

Buccaneers at Patriots

Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET

TV: NBC | Stream: fuboTV (click here)  

Obviously it’s Tom Brady vs. Bill Belichick here. On Sunday night. In Foxborough. It’s the Game of the Century of the Week of the Year of the Millenium. I’m finding it increasingly difficult to predict anything other than a Buccaneers blowout: the Pats want to run and the Bucs are great against the run. New England has a good defense but they’ll need to be GREAT in order to slow down the Buccaneers. The Bucs defense can be exposed in the pass game but the Patriots aren’t exactly a team full of deep threats. Mac Jones will need to be perfect and limited in this game if the Pats want to win. It’s just too hard to envision, although if you want to be contrarian the Pats are a great play here. Public is going to mash the Bucs.

The Pick: Buccaneers 31, Patriots 17

Bets: Under

Raiders at Chargers

Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET

TV: ESPN | Stream: fuboTV (click here)  

This Week 4 slate is pretty loaded with the Brady/Belichick matchup and all the late western battles. Then we get this beauty of a Monday night matchup between Derek Carr and Justin Herbert. The Raiders offense looks the best it’s been under Jon Gruden and Derek Carr is a deserved MVP candidate three weeks into the season. Justin Herbert’s playing great football as well and this could end up in some second-half fireworks. Las Vegas will have a homefield advantage despite the location and the Raiders defense is much improved. But I’m buying into the Chargers as a legitimately good team ready to take a step with a coaching change.

The Pick: Chargers 31, Raiders 27

Bets: TBD Monday, listen to the pod