The Jaguars and Bengals will kick off Week 4 in the NFL when these two AFC squads square off at Paul Brown Stadium on “Thursday Night Football.” This matchup features the previous two No. 1 overall picks in the NFL Draft in Joe Burrow (2020) and Trevor Lawrence (2021). While both quarterbacks are extremely talented, the beginning of their pro careers have been a little choppy. Of course, Burrow missed the bulk of his rookie campaign last year due to a torn ACL but has responded well in 2021 as he’s led Cincy to a 2-1 record. As for Lawrence, his Jags are winless on the season and the former Clemson phenom has thrown more picks than touchdowns. He’ll look to try and right the ship to begin Week 4.
In this space, we’ll cover all the different betting angles that this game has to offer. We’ll detail the line movements leading up to this contest along with giving our picks for how we see this game unfolding and a few of our favorite player props.
All NFL odds via Caesars Sportsbook.
How to watch
Date: Thursday, Sept. 30 | Time: 8:20 p.m. ET
Location: Paul Brown Stadium (Cincinnati)
TV: NFLN | Stream: fuboTV (try for free)
Follow: CBS Sports App
Odds: Bengals -7.5, O/U 45.5
Line movement
Latest Odds: Cincinnati Bengals -7.5
This line has stood still at Bengals -7.5 since it opened up Sunday all the way until Wednesday afternoon leading into the Week 4 opener. On the moneyline, Jacksonville did bump up to +290 from +285, but that’s been the biggest shakeup thus far.
The pick: Bengals -7.5. On top of being winless to begin the year, Jacksonville is one of just four teams in the NFL to start the year 0-3 ATS. The Jaguars offense is only mustering 17.7 points per game and it leads the league in total giveaways. While the Bengals aren’t exactly a dynamo in the AFC, they are a better operation than what Urban Meyer is running down in Florida. Cincinnati also comes into this game fresh off a road victory against the Pittsburgh Steelers and boasts a defense that is allowing the eighth-fewest total yards per game in the NFL. The Bengals are also 6-2 ATS in their last eight home games.
Key trend: Jacksonville is 1-6 ATS in their last seven games.
Over/Under total
The total in this game did jockey a bit this week. After opening up at 46 on Sunday, it briefly dipped down to 45.5 before shooting back up to 46 on Monday. On Wednesday morning, however, it sunk back to 45.5.
The pick: Under 45.5. At the rate the Jaguars offense is going, it’s hard to see it carrying enough of the scoring load to bring this game over. If the Bengals gain a sizable lead, they could look to running back Joe Mixon to eat clock on the ground. Also, if Lawrence continues to turn the ball over, that creates a lot of empty possessions, which will hurt this total. The Under is also 4-1 ATS for the Jaguars in their last five games against teams with a winning record. Meanwhile, the Under is 7-3-1 for the Bengals in their last 11 games overall.
Key trend: Under is 5-2 for Jaguars following a straight-up loss.
Joe Burrow props
- Passing touchdowns: 1.5 (Over -170, Under +140)
- Passing yards: 246.5 (Over -115, Under -115)
- Rushing yards: 7.5 (Over -120, Under -110)
- Pass attempts: 30.5 (Over -125, Under -105)
- Completions: 20.5 (Over -135, Under +105)
- Longest pass completion: 36.5 (Over -110, Under -120)
- Interceptions: 0.5 (Over +140, Under -170)
I like the Over on Burrow’s touchdown passes in this matchup. The Bengals quarterback has a 140.3 passer rating in the red zone this season, which ranks first among all quarterbacks (per PFF). He’s also thrown for multiple touchdowns in every game he’s played this season, including last week when he had three against the Steelers. That said, I do lean more toward the Under on his passing yards prop of 246.5. He’s certainly capable of going over that mark, but I’m not sure he’ll be in a ton of throwing situations in this game, particularly in the second half.
Trevor Lawrence props
- Passing touchdowns: 1.5 (Over +120, Under -150)
- Passing yards: 254.5 (Over -115, Under -115)
- Rushing yards: 15.5 (Over -120, Under -110)
- Pass attempts: 37.5 (Over -115, Under -115)
- Completions: 22.5 (Over +105, Under -135)
- Longest pass completion: 36.5 (Over -110, Under -120)
- Interceptions: 1.5 (Over +120, Under -150)
I love the Over on Lawrence’s completions total of 22.5 at +105. The Bengals defense is allowing 68.2 percent of passes thrown against it to be completed and is averaging 30 completions allowed per game through the first three weeks. With the Jaguars expected to be trailing, that should only mean more pass attempts for Lawrence.
Player props to consider
Marvin Jones total receptions: Over 5.5. (+115). Jones has gone over this total with six catches in each of his last two games and leads the team in targets. He’ll get the volume to go over here so long as he’s efficient.
Joe Mixon rushing attempts: Over 20.5 (+100). Mixon is second in the league in rushing attempts, only looking up to Derrick Henry in Tennessee. With the Bengals expected to have a lead, the veteran back should have plenty of carries, particularly in the second half.
Ja’Marr Chase anytime touchdown (+105). Might as well ride this train until it slows down. Chase has four touchdowns through the first three weeks, including two last week in Pittsburgh.
