Why the Bengals offense will thrive against the Jaguars, plus other best bets for Thursday

Something has to give in the Ben Simmons situation soon. NBA teams have begun reporting for training camp, the season is right around the corner, and we still don’t know where Ben Simmons will play this season. The latest news coming out of the Simmons camp is that he’s willing to forfeit his salary for the season and sit out if he has to. For those unaware, Simmons signed a five-year, $177 million contract before last season. There are four seasons remaining on it, and he’s owed $33 million for the upcoming season.

That’s a lot of money to leave on the table, and I’m here to tell the Philadelphia 76ers right now that if Ben Simmons doesn’t want that $33 million, I will play for a tenth of it. I offer the same level of perimeter shooting that Ben does, and what I lack in every other aspect of his game, I make up for by being a good teammate. I’m a glue guy. I’ll keep the locker room loose and the vibes vibin’.

It’s a tremendous deal. Not only do you save roughly $30 million with me, but you can’t even put a price on those vibes. Just think about it. I could be the difference between a second-round playoff exit and an NBA title.

• The long history of NFL Revenge Games.
• The Bengals will be missing two starters tonight.
• Gerrit Cole’s struggles are a cause for concern.
• Lane Kiffin could change the entire perception of his coaching career this weekend.

Now let’s pick some games.

All times Eastern, and all odds via Caesars Sportsbook

🔥 The Hot Ticket

🏈 Jaguars at Bengals, 8:20 p.m. | TV: NFLN

The Pick: Bengals Over 27.5 (+100): If you are more interested in betting the spread tonight, I would consider buying it down to Bengals -7 or even Bengals -6.5 because, even if the Jaguars do stink, it’s a short week for everybody. I’m going to avoid the game spread and game total entirely because I’m not interested in trying to figure out what the Jaguars are capable of.

Instead, I’m focusing on the Bengals, who should have a solid night offensively no matter what the final score is. The Bengals will be without Tee Higgins again tonight, which sucks, but it stings a bit less when you still have Ja’Marr Chase and Tyler Boyd to throw to. Also, Joe Mixon and the Cincinnati run game has been solid, if unspectacular. Where the Bengals have shined, though, is in the passing game. They rank fifth in passing success rate and eighth in the league in yards per attempt.

Tonight that passing attack will face a Jacksonville defense that traded cornerback C.J. Henderson this week. Now a bad secondary has even less depth than before and didn’t have a full week to get ready for this one. So I think the Bengals will have a strong night offensively, which also helps explain the props parlay I have for tonight’s game at the end of this newsletter.

Key Trend: The Jaguars are allowing 30.3 points per game.

Here’s what SportsLine is saying about the game: SportsLine’s Mike Tierney is 25-12 in his last 37 ATS picks involving Jacksonville, and he’s posted a play for tonight’s game as well.

💰 The Picks

🏈 College Football

Virginia at Miami, 7:30 p.m. | TV: ESPN

The Pick: Virginia +5.5 (-110) — We are not there yet, but dearest reader, we could be approaching the birth of another HQ PM Newsletter Principle. The ACC has a nice NFC Least and NL Least vibe to it through the first month of the season. As September ends, we’ve seen underdogs go 6-2 ATS in ACC conference games. That’s what happens when Clemson is 2-2, and your only undefeated teams are Wake Forest and Boston College.

Virginia has some problems defensively, and it’s a legitimate concern, but Miami QB D’Eriq King is questionable, and there’s a real shot he won’t play tonight. Plus, neither of these teams is good in the red zone. Miami ranks 101st nationally in points per red zone possession, and Virginia isn’t far behind in 103rd. Maybe this screams under to you, and I don’t hate that either, but I find the Cavs to be the better value play.

Key Trend: The underdog has covered 14 of the last 17 meetings.

⚾ MLB

Padres at Dodgers, 10:10 p.m. | TV: MLB.TV

The Pick: Dodgers -1.5 (-115) — We took it last night, and we’re taking it again tonight. Sure, it was a wild ride, but it won. Tonight we’re getting a much better price because Max Scherzer isn’t starting, but this is still the same Padres team that is limping toward the finish line. Plus, Vince Velasquez is starting tonight, and he’s one of 14 pitchers who have started a game for the Padres this season.

Velasquez was released by the Phillies earlier this month and scooped up immediately by the Padres. Still, there’s a reason healthy starters are released in September by teams competing for a playoff spot, and it’s not because they’re good. And Velasquez isn’t! He has an ERA of 6.22 on the season and a walk rate of 12.1%. He’s allowed 19 homers in 89.2 innings, and his home run rate is 56% worse than the league average.

Key Trend: The Dodgers have won 54 of the last 76 meetings.

🔒 SportsLine Pick of the Day: SportsLine’s Advanced Projection Model, which is up almost $7,800, has five strong player prop bets for the Week 4 Thursday Night Football Game between the Bengals and Jaguars.

🏈 The Joe Burrow Prop Parlay

Just for fun, how about a three-leg prop parlay featuring nothing but Joe Burrow props. It pays +388.

• Joe Burrow Over 248.5 passing yards (-115)
• Joe Burrow Over 1.5 passing TD (-170)
• Joe Burrow Over 8.5 rushing yards (-110)