A staple on Friday for the past month-plus has been me checking in on the race for the Cy Young in each league. I’ve been sizing up how I think the voting body would collectively slot the pitchers, but this week we’re just going to post what my ballot in each league would look like.
For those who hate what follows, I have some good news for you. I don’t have a Cy Young vote this season (I have NL Manager of the Year). I still go through the process on every single award so I’m in practice, however, so this is exactly as it would have been had I received a vote this year in this category.
There are five spots in Cy Young voting, so it’s just a simple 1-5 in each league.
It’s a bit easier to sort out than MVP, in my opinion, because we have a much smaller pool of candidates, obviously, and there isn’t a “value” attached to make us quibble with how to judge that against team performance. No, the Cy Young is just for the best pitcher, so if his team is terrible, it doesn’t — or at least it shouldn’t — matter.
Now I’ll let you know what I care about. We’ll start with what I don’t: Wins and losses. But Matt, a pitcher’s job is to win. Nope. A pitcher’s job is to put his team in position to win as best he can. How?
- Most importantly, run prevention. Keeping runs off the board. That’s as simple as it gets. It’s ERA. Some prefer FIP, but I’m still an ERA guy. ERA+ helps adjust for ballpark, too.
- Workload. The best pitchers don’t simply help their team win when they pitch. They also eat up innings to save the bullpen. Innings pitched.
- Keeping runners off base, which lessens pressure on the defense and helps a pitcher work deeper. WHIP. Low walk rate. Low hit rate.
- Again, keeping pressure off his defense. This time by missing bats. Strikeouts. Strikeout rate.
I’ll also look at WAR (it’s a catch-all of the above) and win probability added.
Also, as noted in MVP watch, I don’t care about predictive stats here. It doesn’t matter if something seems unsustainable moving toward next season because it’s been sustained for this season and that’s all that matters in handing out awards.
American League
1. Robbie Ray, Blue Jays
2. Gerrit Cole, Yankees
3. José Berríos, Blue Jays
4. Frankie Montas, Athletics
5. Nathan Eovaldi, Red Sox
Ray leads the league in ERA, WHIP, ERA+, strikeouts and innings pitched. With that combination, it’s an incredibly easy decision for me, even if I’m not saying it’s a blowout. It’s decisive, unlike the NL.
Cole is also an easy second and would be the clear winner if not for Ray. Berríos and Montas have excellently combined ERA, WHIP, ERA+ and innings pitched like Ray, just not quite as well. Eovaldi is loved by WAR and FIP while helped by ERA+, painting the picture that he’s been hurt a lot by his defense and just bad fortune, yet he’s still eighth in ERA and seventh in WHIP.
Several White Sox were tough omissions, but no one combined excellent run prevention with a suitable workload. Lucas Giolito and Dylan Cease came closest.
Also close: Mariners ace Chris Flexen.
National League
1. Zack Wheeler, Phillies
2. Walker Buehler, Dodgers
3. Max Scherzer, Dodgers
4. Corbin Burnes, Brewers
5. Brandon Woodruff, Brewers
This was incredibly close and it’s tough to sort them out, but a lot ultimately came down to innings. For example, while Burnes has a much better ERA at 2.29 than Wheeler’s 2.78, Wheeler threw 58 1/3 more innings. He had more than 25 percent more innings. I don’t know where the line is, exactly, but I feel like with that much less workload, the gap in ERA and WHIP (where it was paper thin) has to be a lot more. Innings are the separation point on Buehler (2.49 ERA, 0.97 WHIP in 202 2/3 innings) and Scherzer (2.46 ERA, 0.86 WHIP in 179 1/3 innings). Burnes and Woodruff were both stellar, but were limited in innings.
These five were so close that I wouldn’t argue much with scrambling them a bit, though I feel like Woodruff is definitely five. I think what I’m saying is that you can put Woodruff fifth, put the top four in any order you want and I’d say it’s reasonable.
Kevin Gausman and Adam Wainwright were the toughest omissions, but we only had five spots. They’ll each get down-ballot votes and it’s notable because it’ll be the first time in Gausman’s nine-year career and the first time for the 40-year-old Wainwright since 2014.
