The most anticipated NFL game in Week 4 arrives on Sunday Night Football. Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers will visit the New England Patriots. The matchup marks Brady’s return to Gillette Stadium for the first time in an opposing uniform. New England is 1-2 this season, with Tampa Bay entering at 2-1 after a Week 3 loss to the Los Angeles Rams.
Kickoff is at 8:20 p.m. ET. Caesars Sportsbook lists the Buccaneers as seven-point favorites on the road, while the Over-Under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 49.5 in the latest Patriots vs. Buccaneers odds. Before you make any Buccaneers vs. Patriots picks and NFL predictions, see what SportsLine’s advanced computer model has to say.
The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up almost $7,900 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception six-plus years ago. It went a sizzling 24-14 on top-rated NFL picks last season, returning more than $800. The model also enters Week 4 of the 2021 season on an incredible 123-81 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season.
The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past five years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94 percent of CBS Sports Football Pick’em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.
Now, the model has set its sights on Buccaneers vs. Patriots. You can head to SportsLine to see its picks. Now, here are several NFL betting lines and trends for Buccaneers vs. Patriots:
- Patriots vs. Buccaneers spread: Buccaneers -7
- Patriots vs. Buccaneers over-under: 49.5 points
- Patriots vs. Buccaneers money line: Buccaneers -320, Patriots +250
- TB: Over has hit in all three Buccaneers’ games this season
- NE: Patriots are 1-2 against the spread this season
Why Tom Brady and the Buccaneers can cover
Prior to last week, the Buccaneers had not suffered a loss in almost 10 months, and they are a complete, dangerous team. Offensively, Tampa Bay leads the NFL in scoring with 103 points in three games and are in the top two in passing touchdowns and passing yards. The Bucs are also a top-eight team in first downs (24 per game) and total offense (406 yards per game), and Tom Brady is one of the best signal-callers in the NFL.
Tampa Bay has elite skill players, headlined by Chris Godwin, Mike Evans and Rob Gronkowski (doubtful, ribs), and they are also facing a Patriots team that has not been explosive offensively. New England is scoring only 18 points per game, with two touchdown passes in three games. Tampa Bay’s secondary has scuffled in 2021, but they have a top-four run defense by any measure, and the Buccaneers also have four interceptions in three games.
Why Mac Jones and the Patriots can cover
New England is likely better than their win-loss record indicates, and it starts with their defense. The Patriots are giving up only 17 points per game, a top-five mark in the NFL, and they are also a top-five unit in total yards allowed (282.3 per game), first downs allowed (18 per game), passing yards allowed (160 per game), touchdown passes allowed (three), interceptions (five), and net yards per pass attempt allowed (5.3). New England is forcing a turnover on more than 15 percent of its defensive possessions, an elite rate, and Matt Judon is a top-tier havoc creator with four tackles for loss and 3.5 sacks.
Tampa Bay is explosive through the air, but is averaging only 3.5 yards per carry offensively, and the Patriots can lay back to focus on the pass. On the other side, Patriots quarterback Mac Jones leads an offense that has excelled in avoiding turnovers and moving the chains. The Patriots have turned the ball over on only 16.1 percent of drives and are converting 44.7 percent of their third down chances, with both ranking in the top 10 this season.
How to make Patriots vs. Buccaneers picks
SportsLine’s model is leaning under on the total, with both teams projected to throw an interception. The model also says one side of the spread hits in well over 50 percent of simulations. Go here to see who to pick.
So who wins Buccaneers vs. Patriots on Sunday Night Football? And which side of the spread hits in well over 50 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of the Buccaneers vs. Patriots spread you need to jump on Sunday, all from the model that’s 123-81 on its NFL picks, and find out.
