College football bowl projections: Iowa jumps into playoff with Oregon loss; Cincinnati still on outside

No. 7 Cincinnati’s 24-13 victory over No. 9 Notre Dame in South Bend, Indiana, on Saturday could be the impetus for a historic event — the first team from the Group of Five qualifying for the College Football Playoff. First things first, though: The Bearcats will have to finish the season with a perfect 13-0 record.

The only other time a Group of Five team in this position came in 2016 when Houston opened the campaign ranked 15th with home games scheduled against preseason No. 3 Oklahoma and No. 19 Louisville.  A 13-0 season by the Cougars would have merited serious discussion for the CFP.  Houston won the two big nonconference games but suffered three losses in conference play, so we never got to find out how the CFP Selection Committee would have viewed them.

If Cincinnati can finish the job, there are scenarios that may put the Bearcats into the playoff. In short, the committee needs to be in a situation where there is no other viable candidate for the fourth spot. There is no guarantee that Cincinnati would get selected over a one-loss non-champion from the SEC or Big Ten. Even a two-loss SEC team with losses to Alabama and Georgia might be a contender to Cincinnati. The Bearcats should be favored over any other major conference team, champion or otherwise, with at least one loss.

Cincinnati, however, got some much needed help Saturday when No. 3 Oregon self-destructed late at Stanford, losing 31-24 in overtime. The Pac-12 would now need something of a chaos scenario to get back into playoff contention.

Oklahoma keeps playing with fire, but so far, it has not been burned. The No. 4 Sooners got out of Kansas State with a 37-31 victory. All four of their wins over FBS teams have been by seven points or fewer. Oklahoma faces Texas next week as it drops to the No. 4 seed in the playoff despite its victory and Oregon’s loss.

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The new projected No. 3 seed is Iowa. The Hawkeyes have been the best team in the Big Ten through the first five weeks of the season. Certainly, no other team in the Big Ten West has been anywhere near the quality of Iowa. The Hawkeyes destroyed Maryland 51-14 on the road on Friday night.

No. 1 Alabama and No. 2 Georgia posted dominant wins over No. 12 Ole Miss and No. 8 Arkansas, respectively, to remain the expected top two seeds in the CFP. However, the Crimson Tide have shifted to the Orange Bowl from their previous projection to the Cotton Bowl.

Let’s take a look at the new CFP projection. A updated slate of bowl projections will be available Sunday afternoon.

College Football Playoff