2021 MLB playoffs: Five bold predictions for postseason, including Wild Card Game walk-off and near no-hitter

The 2021 MLB regular season is in the books. We didn’t get tiebreaker chaos in the AL wild-card race, which is a bummer, but we did get an exciting final month with multiple postseason spots on the line on the season’s final day. Can’t ask much more than that, can you?

The postseason begins Tuesday night, with the AL Wild Card Game at Fenway Park. Here is the full postseason bracket:

• AL Wild Card Game: Yankees at Red Sox
• ALDS: Wild Card Game winner at Rays
• ALDS: White Sox at Astros
• NL Wild Card Game: Cardinals at Dodgers
• NLDS: Wild Card Game winner at Giants
• NLDS: Braves at Brewers

So even though the two Wild Card Games were unsettled going into Game 162, we still wound up with Yankees vs. Red Sox and Dodgers vs. Cardinals. It’s like the baseball gods know what the television networks crave.

My preseason bold predictions weren’t great (I nailed that Shohei Ohtani prediction though) and my second-half bold predictions were worse, but my motto is if you get a lot of bold predictions correct, you weren’t bold enough. Or at least that’s what I tell myself to feel better. Anyway, let’s do some postseason bold predictions, shall we? Let’s get to it.

1. There will be a Wild Card Game walk-off

This is the ninth year of the current postseason format and so far we’ve had only two Wild Card Game walk-offs: Salvador Perez’s grounder down the line against the Athletics in 2014, and Edwin Encarnación’s three-run homer against the Orioles in 2016. The Encarnación homer came when O’s manager Buck Showalter infamously left Zack Britton in the bullpen, unused.

For my money, that 2014 game between the A’s and Royals is the best Wild Card Game we’ve seen. It was a back and forth game with multiple lead changes, late-inning heroics, stolen bases, dingers, great defense, the works. The 2017 NL Wild Card Game between the Diamondbacks and Rockies was similar, though not quite as thrilling. The 2014 AL game is the gold standard.

Our first bold prediction this postseason calls for the third ever Wild Card Game walk-off. We know the matchups — Yankees at Red Sox and Cardinals at Dodgers — and Cardinals at Dodgers feels more chaos-y to me. We’ve seen enough Yankees-Red Sox games to know those two teams tend to play (very) long back-and-forth games, though there’s often a clear victor.

Cardinals-Dodgers oozes weird. That’s likely to be the Wild Card Game where something unexpected happens, and a walk-off win qualifies as unexpected. Since the Dodgers are the home team, I have to say sorry, Cardinals fans, but your team will be on the wrong end of the walk-off. It’s tough, but someone has to lose.

Here’s how it will play out: Max Scherzer and Adam Wainwright pitch well, and the game is tied going into the ninth. St. Louis goes to closer Giovanny Gallegos in the must-win game, he gives up a bloop single to Mookie Betts and Betts then steals second (yes, against Yadier Molina). Corey Seager walks, forcing Gallegos to pitch to Trea Turner, who doubles down the line to score Betts to win the game. It has been foretold.

(In case you’re wondering, no, the extra innings tiebreaker rule is not in effect in the postseason. It will be regular old extra innings in October.)

2. Doval is this postseason’s K-Rod

It has been nearly two decades since Francisco Rodríguez burst onto the scene as a September call-up with the 2002 Angels, and pitched so well that he was a trusted high-leverage reliever en route to the club’s World Series championship. We’ve seen others make similar rises (David Price with the 2008 Rays, most notably), but none has quite matched K-Rod.

This year’s breakout postseason reliever will be Giants righty Camilo Doval. He was not a September debut like K-Rod (Doval was first called up in May, then went up and down a few times before sticking for good in September), though he has pitched his way into a prominent late-inning role thanks to his electric arm and funky delivery.

Doval struck out 20 of the 52 batters he faced in September. He allowed only six singles, one double, and three walks in 14 1/3 scoreless innings, and even recorded three saves when Jake McGee was on the injured list. McGee is back now and it remains to be seen how the Giants deploy their top relievers (Doval, McGee, Tyler Rogers) in October, though Doval will be in the mix.

It’s not often a reliever is the breakout star of the postseason, but Doval has all the ingredients to do it this year. His stuff is just electric, and he fills a high-profile role on the league’s winningest team. Doval is far from a household name at this point and that’s understandable. He kind of came out of nowhere. But he’s very good, and October will be his coming out party.

3. There will be a near no-hitter

Over 1,000 postseason games have been played in MLB postseason history, yet there have only been two postseason no-hitters: Don Larsen’s perfect game in Game 5 of the 1956 World Series, and the late Roy Halladay’s no-hitter in Game 1 of the 2010 NLDS. No other pitcher has ever even taken a no-hitter in the ninth inning in October.

The last pitcher to take a no-hitter into the eighth inning in a postseason game was Aníbal Sánchez in Game 1 of the 2019 NLCS. He lost the no-hit bid with two outs in the eighth. Before Sánchez, the last pitcher to take a postseason no-hit bid into the eighth inning was Michael Wacha in Game 4 of the 2013 NLDS. He fell five outs short of history.

We’re not going to predict a postseason no-hitter for this bold prediction, that’s a little too bold, so instead we’ll say a team takes a no-hitter into the ninth inning at some point this October. Note I said “team” rather than “pitcher.” We’re predicting a combined no-hit bid, which is cheesy, but leashes are short in the postseason and managers use their bullpen aggressively.

Rays skipper Kevin Cash is the manager most likely to pull a pitcher from a postseason no-hitter, but I’ll instead say Brewers skipper Craig Counsell does it. Corbin Burnes threw 100 pitches only six times in the regular season and was famously pulled from a no-hitter after eight innings. I boldly predict it happens again in the NLDS, and this time the no-hitter is lost in the ninth.

4. MLB will set another postseason home run record

Every year, like clockwork, it is said you can’t rely on home runs in the postseason, because the pitching is too good and you can’t hit home runs against good pitchers. Then, every postseason, it’s Home Run Derby in October. Good pitchers give up home runs all the time! What they usually don’t give up are long rallies on multiple base hits and walks. Homers are the lifeblood of October.

Last year was, by far, the most home run happy postseason on record. Teams averaged 1.50 homers per game last postseason, which is bonkers. It was an unusual year with the pandemic and expanded postseason field and all that, but they were postseason games, and the ball flew out of the park at a record pace. Some numbers:

Run scoring tends to drop significantly in the postseason. The home run rate though? Not so much. In a few cases the home run rate actually went up even though run scoring went down, meaning homers take on added importance in October. They might be your only way to score in some cases. If you get a pitch to hit, you better really hit it.

For this bold prediction, I’m going to say MLB will set a new record postseason home run rate this year, eclipsing last year’s 1.50 per team per game rate. That sounds astronomical, and it is, but that’s what makes it bold, right? Teams averaged 1.22 homers per game during the regular season. Why can’t it jump to, say, 1.52 per game in October? It nearly did last year.

The great unknown is the baseball itself. There were indications the ball was different in the postseason in 2019 than it was during the regular season, and who’s to say it won’t change again? It is crazy that the performance of the baseball, the single most important piece of equipment in the sport, varies so much from year to year (or even month to month), but that’s the world we live in. Maybe we’ll get a juiced ball this postseason and the ball will really fly. Even more than last postseason.

5. There will be a postseason trade

October trades are rare, but they do happen. Once the regular season ends, teams are eligible to make trades again, though most business waits for the winter months. October trades are usually very minor. A fringe 40-man roster guy for cash among two non-postseason teams. Something along those lines.

The last notable big leaguer traded in October was righty Kyle Barraclough. He spent four productive years in the Marlins bullpen before being sent to the Nationals for international bonus money on Oct. 10, 2018. That was an off-day between the LDS and LCS. The last player-for-player October trade involving notable big leaguers went down on Oct. 20, 2012. The deal:

• Athletics get: OF Chris Young
• D-Backs get: RHP Heath Bell and IF Cliff Pennington
• Marlins get: IF Yordy Cabrera

Yep, a three-team trade in the middle of the postseason. Bell went to three straight All-Star Games from 2009-11 and Young had an All-Star Game selection to his credit as well. They weren’t nobodies. That trade was made on an off-day between Games 5 and 6 of the NLCS (the ALCS was already over). MLB would be very upset with any teams that make a trade on a postseason gameday and steal headlines.

Our final bold prediction calls for an October trade. An actual player-for-player trade involving a big leaguer of note. Let’s get more specific: I’ll say the Orioles trade lefty reliever Tanner Scott to the Angels for a prospect on an off-day between the LDS and LCS. That’s a very “Barraclough for international bonus money” trade, no? An October trade, coming soon.