The Cup Series will head to Talladega Superspeedway on Monday for the second race in the Round of 12 after Sunday’s run was postponed due to rain. The 2021 YellaWood 500 is the fifth race in the 2021 NASCAR Playoffs and will be contested over 188 laps on the tri-oval asphalt of Talladega. Current points leader Kyle Larson has no wins in 13 starts and failed to finish in his last two appearances here. As a result, his 2021 YellaWood 500 odds don’t place him among the top five NASCAR at Talladega favorites to capture the checkered flag.
Larson is 12-1 at Caesars Sportsbook, while the driver just behind him in the standings, Denny Hamlin, is the 8-1 favorite. Brad Keselowski, who was a NASCAR at Talladega winner earlier this year, comes in at 10-1 along with Chase Elliott and Ryan Blaney. The green flag drops at 1 p.m. ET. Before scouring the 2021 YellaWood 500 starting lineup and making any NASCAR at Talladega predictions, be sure to see the latest 2021 YellaWood 500 picks from SportsLine’s proven projection model.
Developed by daily Fantasy pro and SportsLine predictive data engineer Mike McClure, this proprietary NASCAR prediction model simulates every race 10,000 times, taking into account factors such as track history and recent results.
The model began the 2020 season paying out big by picking Denny Hamlin to win his second consecutive Daytona 500 at 10-1. The model also called Kevin Harvick’s win at Atlanta and nailed a whopping nine top-10 finishers in that race. McClure then used the model to lock in a 10-1 bet on Hamlin for his win at Miami.
At the Brickyard, the model called Harvick’s fourth victory of the season. Then during the 2020 NASCAR Playoffs, the model nailed its NASCAR picks in back-to-back races, calling Denny Hamlin to win at 17-2 at Talladega and Chase Elliott to win at 7-2 at the Charlotte Roval.
In the 2021 season, McClure nailed Martin Truex Jr. to win at Martinsville for a strong 3-1 payout. The model also nailed Kyle Larson winning the NASCAR All-Star Race at 5-2 and hit Larson again at the Ally 400 for another 5-2 payout. It also called Chase Elliott to win at Road America for a 5-2 payout and then correctly predicted the top five drivers at Watkins Glen before nailing at least seven of the top 10 three of the last four weeks. Anyone who has followed its lead on those plays has seen huge returns.
Now, the model simulated the 2021 YellaWood 500 10,000 times. Head to SportsLine to see the complete 2021 YellaWood 500 projected leaderboard.
Top 2021 YellaWood 500 predictions
One surprise: the model is high on Aric Almirola, even though he’s a 20-1 long shot in the latest NASCAR at Talladega odds 2021. He’s a target for anyone looking for a huge payday. Almirola was eliminated from championship contention after the Round of 16, but he’s been on a run lately. He’s one of three drivers to finish in the top 20 in the last nine races, joining Larson and Kevin Harvick.
Almirola also has experienced NASCAR at Talladega success like few others, winning at the track in 2018. That race was one of eight straight top-10 finishes for Almirola at Dega, which is clearly his favorite track. He has more top-fives (five) and more top-10s (nine) at the track than at any other driver and also had a 2017 victory there on the Xfinity Series. Almirola is a steal at his long NASCAR at Talladega odds so he should heavily factor into your 2021 YellaWood 500 bets, according to the model.
And a massive shocker: Chase Elliott, one of the Vegas favorites at 10-1, stumbles big-time and fails to crack the top five. There are far better values in this loaded 2021 YellaWood 500 starting grid. The 2020 NASCAR Cup Series champion is coming off a second-place finish in Las Vegas last week, but he’s currently sixth in the NASCAR standings and 35 points back of Larson.
Elliott has had two finishes of 25th or worse in his last four starts and he finished 24th at Talladega earlier this season in the GEICO 500. Elliott also finished 38th at the 2020 GEICO 500 and has two other finishes outside the top 30 in 11 career Cup starts at Talladega.
How to make 2021 NASCAR at Talladega picks
The model is also targeting two other drivers with 2021 NASCAR at Talladega odds of 14-1 or longer to make a serious run at winning it all. Anyone who backs these drivers could hit it big. You can see all of the model’s NASCAR picks over at SportsLine.
So who wins the 2021 YellaWood 500? And which long shots do you need to back? Check out the latest 2021 NASCAR at Talladega odds below, then visit SportsLine now to see the full projected 2021 YellaWood 500 leaderboard, all from the model that has predicted at least seven of the top 10 finishers three of the last four weeks.
2021 YellaWood 500 odds
Denny Hamlin 8-1
Joey Logano 9-1
Chase Elliott 10-1
Brad Keselowski 10-1
Ryan Blaney 10-1
Kyle Larson 12-1
William Byron 12-1
Kyle Busch 14-1
Kevin Harvick 15-1
Martin Truex Jr. 18-1
Alex Bowman 18-1
Aric Almirola 20-1
Matt DiBenedetto 25-1
Christopher Bell 25-1
Austin Dillon 25-1
Kurt Busch 25-1
Bubba Wallace 25-1
Tyler Reddick 25-1
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 28-1
Michael McDowell 40-1
Ryan Newman 40-1
Chris Buescher 50-1
Ross Chastain 50-1
Justin Haley 50-1
Cole Custer 60-1
Chase Briscoe 60-1
Daniel Suarez 60-1
Erik Jones 75-1
Ryan Preece 75-1
Corey Lajoie 125-1
Justin Allgaier 150-1
Anthony Alfredo 200-1
Landon Cassill 300-1
Quin Houff 1000-1
Josh Bilicki 1000-1
Garrett Smithley 1000-1
Cody Ware 1500-1
B.J. McLeod 1500-1
David Starr 2000-1
Joey Gase 2000-1
2021 NASCAR standings
1. Kyle Larson 3096 points
2. Denny Hamlin 3082
3. Kyle Busch 3074
4. Martin Truex Jr. 3070
5. Ryan Blaney 3063
6. Chase Elliott 3061
7. Joey Logano 3045
8. Brad Keselowski 3043
9. William Byron 3039
10. Kevin Harvick 3036
11. Alex Bowman 3030
12. Christopher Bell 3018
