Week 4 was, at the very least, another data point for those of us trying to figure out exactly what the new normal in the NFL was. And, for the most part, at running back, that centers around two-back backfields. Heading into Monday Night Football, Joe Mixon, Derrick Henry, and Najee Harris are the only three running backs to account for more than 62% of their team’s total rush attempts.
As this trend continues to grow, we have to decide which backfields, like the Browns, now have two starting Fantasy running backs and which, like the Dolphins, may have zero. We’ll start with the Arizona Cardinals, who have looked much more like the former than the latter.
James Conner and Chase Edmonds are both starting Fantasy RBs
The Case: Heading into Monday Night Football, Edmonds is the No. 11 running back in full PPR while James Conner ranks 24th. In non-PPR Conner ranks 18th and Edmonds is 25th. Regardless of format, both running backs have been solid Fantasy starters because of very different roles.
Edmonds’ 20 receptions ranks third at running back behind only Najee Harris and D’Andre Swift. And while he hasn’t scored a touchdown, Edmonds has been very efficient on the ground, averaging 5.9 yards per carry, which is first amongst running backs with at least 40 carries.
Conner’s value has come almost entirely from touchdowns, but those are pretty valuable. And it looks somewhat sustainable. Conner ranks fifth in red zone carries and only Jonathan Taylor has more carries inside the five than Conner this season.
No matter which Cardinals back you have on your roster, they should be a starter.
The Verdict: Don’t believe it.
Edmonds is definitely a starter in full PPR, but those red zone stats for Conner are terrible news for Edmonds. I’m sure he’ll score a touchdown eventually, but as their roles are currently defined, Edmonds projects to have one of the worst touchdown rates in the league. That makes him more of a Flex in non-PPR.
Non-PPR is still the only place I want to start Conner. Because besides the scores he’s been pretty awful. He’s averaging 3.2 yards per carry and Week 4 was his first game with more than 53 total yards. He also hasn’t played more than 50% of the snaps in a game yet this season.
Start Edmonds in full PPR, and flex him in non. As for Conner, he’s a high-end flex in non-PPR and a low-end flex when catches count. In the PPR leagues where I have Conner, I’m really hoping I have a better option.
Kenneth Gainwell is the best Eagles RB rest of season
The Case: For the season, the rookie has more catches, receiving yards, touchdowns, and Fantasy points than Miles Sanders. Considering Gainwell has still only played four NFL games, and that he was someone the coaching staff chose, and not inherited like Sanders, you should only expect Gainwell’s role to grow as the season moves forward. Neither of them is a “start” in their current role, but Gainwell is more likely to trend that direction.
The Verdict: Don’t believe it.
Not yet, anyway.
Gainwell still hasn’t played even 40% of the snaps in a game yet, while Sanders has played at least 60% in every game. And Sanders has been better on a per carry, per target, and per reception basis. If anything, Sanders has been a little unlucky not to score a touchdown.
The one part I do believe is that you should try to avoid starting either Eagles back until this offense starts functioning a little bit differently.
Noah Fant is the only Fantasy starter on the Broncos
The Case: Through three weeks, the Broncos highest ranked running back in Fantasy is Melvin Gordon, the No. 26 running back in Fantasy. Courtland Sutton ranks 24th at wide receiver, but over half of his production came in one game against the Jacksonville Jaguars. And if Teddy Bridgewater misses any time with a concussion, this offense only figures to get worse.
Fant is still a starter because of his role and his position, but you’re better off benching the rest of the Broncos.
The Verdict: Believe it.
The Broncos visit the Steelers in Week 5, and while the Pittsburgh defense may not be what it was, it’s still a stiff challenge for this offense.
Gordon, Sutton, and Javonte Wiliams are all touchdown-dependent flexes in a bad matchup on the road. If Fant was a receiver, he would be as well. But tight end remains a wasteland for Fantasy production with only 11 tight ends topping 40 Fantasy points in the first month of the season. Considering Fant has scored at least 12 Fantasy points in three of four outings, that pretty much makes him must-start at this point.
Cordarrelle Patterson is a must-start player
The Case: First, LOL.
Cordarrelle Patterson is currently the No. 2 running back in PPR scoring. He ranks No. 5 at wide receiver. He has scored more than half of the Falcons touchdowns this season and ranks second on the team in rushing yards and receiving yards. Until something changes, we have to start Patterson.
The Verdict: I want to be clear, I still don’t really believe this will last all year. Patterson has scored once every nine touches. He’s averaging 10.7 yards per target, which is nearly two yards higher than his career best. Yes, I’ll give Arthur Smith some credit for getting Patterson in space, but there’s no way he keeps this up.
Still, he’s a must-start in his current role. If you just looked at Patterson’s role and gave him his career efficiency and scoring rate he would have 15 catches, 309 total yards, and two touchdowns. That would give him the same number of Fantasy points as Alvin Kamara, who is currently RB14.
So yes, expect regression for Patterson, but keep starting him anyway.
