The Las Vegas Raiders and Los Angeles Chargers will put a bow on Week 4 in the NFL when they go head to head at SoFi Stadium during “Monday Night Football.” The Raiders come into this AFC West head-to-head undefeated on the season at 3-0, while the Chargers are coming off an impressive win over the Kansas City Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium in Week 3. Even though these two teams head into this matchup with different records, they have enjoyed a similar season when working against the spread, both holding at 2-1 ATS mark to begin the year.
That’s what we’ll primarily be covering in this space. Below, we’ll cover all the different betting angles that this matchup has to offer, including a look at how the lines have shifted throughout the week. We’ll also hand out picks for this matchup and highlight a number of player props that catch our eye.
All NFL odds via Caesars Sportsbook.
How to watch
Date: Monday, Oct. 4 | Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
Location: SoFi Stadium (Inglewood, California)
TV: ESPN | Stream: fuboTV (try for free)
Follow: CBS Sports App
Odds: Chargers -3, O/U 51.5
Line movement
Latest Odds: Los Angeles Chargers -3
This number opened at Chargers -3, but did jump up to -3.5 early last the week and held leading into the weekend. After being able to lay the points with Los Angeles at +100 from Wednesday to Friday, this spread dipped back down to Chargers -3 on Saturday and has held as of Sunday.
The pick: Chargers -3. Los Angeles was extremely impressive in its road win over the Chiefs last week. Not only was Justin Herbert sensational throwing four touchdown passes, but the L.A. defense was able to force four turnovers, including two picks off Patrick Mahomes The Raiders offense has been impressive to start the year, but Brandon Staley’s defense has shown that it can stop opposing quarterbacks through the air. Against the run? That’s a different story, but if Herbert and Co. are able to create a lead, that could force Jon Gruden to move away from the run. As strong as the Las Vegas front seven has been to start the year, slowing down Herbert is a lot different than Ben Roethlisberger and Jacoby Brissett, the two quarterbacks they’ve most recently faced.
Key trend: Chargers are 6-1 ATS over their last seven games.
Over/Under total
Bettors seemingly like the Under in this matchup as this total has been dragged down throughout the week after opening at 53.5. It feel an entire point on Monday and has only continued to fall further, now sitting at 51.5 as of Sunday.
The pick: Over 51.5. Both of these offenses have the capability of lighting up the scoreboard with the Raiders averaging 30 points per game and the Chargers averaging 22.3. In both of their contests last year, this total would have gone over by an average of 5.5 points. Meanwhile, the Over is 7-1 in the Raiders last eight games coming into this matchup. The Over is also 5-2 in the Chargers last seven games following an ATS win.
Key trend: Over is 5-1 in Raiders last six games vs. AFC West.
Derek Carr props
- Passing touchdowns: 1.5 (Over -170, Under +140)
- Passing yards: 282.5 (Over -115, Under -115)
- Pass attempts: 35.5 (Over -125, Under -105)
- Completions: 24.5 (Over +100, Under -130)
- Longest pass completion: 39.5 (Over -115, Under -115)
- Interceptions: 0.5 (Over -115, Under -115)
Carr has come out of the gate hot through the air, leading the NFL in passing yards entering Week 4. That may have folks blindly betting the Over on his passing yards prop, but I tend to lean under. While the Los Angeles run defense is certainly spotty, they have been able to hold the likes of Mahomes and Dak Prescott under this number over the last two weeks. Meanwhile, the Chargers secondary is allowing nearly a 70 completion percentage to opposing quarterbacks through the first three weeks, so the Over on his 24.5 completions — a number he’s eclipsed in each game this season — certainly catches the eye at +100.
Justin Herbert props
- Passing touchdowns: 1.5 (Over -210, Under +170)
- Passing yards: 299.5 (Over -115, Under -115)
- Pass attempts: 36.5 (Over -125, Under -105)
- Completions: 27.5 (Over -105, Under -125)
- Longest pass completion: 37.5 (Over -120, Under -110)
- Interceptions: 0.5 (Over +130, Under -160)
While I like the Over on Herbert’s Over 1.5 touchdowns, there’s not a ton of value there at -210. I’d be more prone to lean toward the Over on his 27.5 completions prop at -105. The Raiders are averaging 26 completions per game through the first three weeks, but did just allow Brissett to complete 32 of 49 in Week 3. Meanwhile, Herbert has gone over this mark in two of his three games played this season.
Player props to consider
Hunter Renfrow total receptions: Over 4.5 (-130). Renfrow has gone over this total in all three of his games played this season and is currently second on the team in targets, only looking up to Darren Waller.
Austin Ekeler total receiving yards: Over 37.5 (-115). This is a really strong play at this number for Ekeler, who has seen 15 targets over the last two weeks and is averaging 56.5 receiving yards over that stretch.
Bryan Edwards total receiving yards: Over 34.5 (-115). The target volume isn’t massive, but Edwards is averaging 21 yards per reception this season, meaning he’ll only need one or two grabs for this to hit.
