Italy puts its record 37-game unbeaten streak on the line on Wednesday when it takes on Spain in the UEFA Nations League semifinals at the San Siro in Milan, Italy. This is a rematch of a Euro 2020 semifinal in June, where the teams played to a 1-1 draw before the Azzurri won in a shootout. The Italians went on to beat England on penalty kicks to take the European championship. Spain is 2-0-1 since that Euro 2020 meeting, with a 2-1 loss to Switzerland and easy wins against Georgia and Kosovo.
Kickoff is set for 2:45 p.m. ET. Caesars Sportsbook lists Italy as the +125 favorite (risk $100 to win $125) in its latest Italy vs. Spain odds, with Spain the +250 underdog. A draw is priced at +210 and the over-under for total goals scored is set at 2.5. Before you make any Spain vs. Italy picks or UEFA Nations League predictions, you need to check out what European soccer insider Martin Green has to say.
After working in the sports betting industry for several years, Green became a professional sports writer and handicapper. Since then, his European soccer picks have hauled in stunning profits. Green has generated well over $36,000 for $100 bettors since the 2017-18 season.
Now, Green has taken a close look at Spain vs. Italy from every possible angle. You can visit SportsLine now to see Green’s picks. Here are several UEFA Nations League odds and betting trends for Italy vs. Spain:
- Italy vs. Spain spread: Italy -0.5 (+120)
- Italy vs. Spain over-under: 2.5 goals
- Italy vs. Spain money line: Italy +125, Spain +250, Draw +210
- Italy: The Azzurri is 11-4-0 in 2021, with a 31-5 goal differential
- Spain: La Roja is 7-6-1 in 2021, with a 30-11 advantage in goals
Why you should back Italy
The Italians have home-field advantage and are stronger on defense. With both teams being without key forwards — and Spain already lacking bite in attack — the Azzurri’s back line could make the difference. Captain Giorgio Chiellini’s leadership in the back is almost unparalleled, and Leonardo Bonucci is also a steady presence. The defense went 11 games without allowing a goal before the Euro Round of 16 and hasn’t yielded more than one goal in an official match since 2017. Italy has posted consecutive clean sheets, against Lithuania and Switzerland.
The attack will miss striker Ciro Immobile, but Moise Kean scored twice in the rout of Lithuania. Federico Chiesa, who scored the goal in the matchup against Spain at Euro 2020, and Lorenzo Insigne also are among those who could trouble the Spain defense. The midfield is led by UEFA Player of the Year and Ballon d’Or candidate Jorginho, and Nicola Barella, Marco Verratti and Manuel Locatelli are all versatile playmakers. Spain has won just once in the last five meetings in all competitions and has not won on Italian soil since an international friendly in 1971.
Why you should back Spain
Spain dominates possession with its midfield of Sergio Busquets, Koke and Pedri, and it held the ball for 71 percent of the meeting at Euro 2020. Ferran Torres and Mikel Oyarzabal are able scoring options with striker Alvaro Morata out with injury. Morata scored the equalizer in the Euro meeting but had been under fire because of his struggles to finish. Italy’s 5-0 rout of Lithuania last time out was its first win in 90 minutes in five matches, and it struggled at times in draws with Bulgaria and Switzerland in last month’s World Cup qualifying matches.
Spain’s possession and attacking style put pressure on the defense on counter-attacks, but it is a talented group. Chelsea’s Cesar Azpilicueta, Villareal’s Pau Torres and Man City’s Aymeric Laporte hold the line in front of Unai Simon, who is expected to start in net ahead of David de Gea. The Spaniards have posted consecutive clean sheets in outscoring Georgia and Kosovo 6-0.
How to make UEFA Nations League picks for Italy vs. Spain
Green has analyzed Wednesday’s Italy vs. Spain match from every angle, and he is leaning under on the goal total. He also has revealed a confident best bet with a plus-money payout and has a complete analysis of this UEFA Nations League match. He’s only sharing his picks and best bets at SportsLine.
Who wins Spain vs. Italy? And where does all the betting value lie? Visit SportsLine now to see the best bets for Italy vs. Spain, all from the European soccer expert who has generated more than $36,000 for $100 bettors over the past four seasons, and find out.
