SEC college football picks, odds in Week 6: Alabama cruises again, Auburn keeps it tight with Georgia

A big week lies ahead in the SEC with three massive matchups that will drastically define the landscape of the conference. No. 1 Alabama will make the trek to College Station to take on Texas A&M, though this game doesn’t carry the same kind of hype considering the two-loss Aggies — a preseason top-10 team — haven’t lived up to their end of the bargain. Despite that, Kyle Field will certainly be rocking on Saturday night in the hopes of wrecking the Crimson Tide’s dream season. 

Meanwhile, No. 2 Georgia will travel to the Plains to square off against No. 18 Auburn in the Deep South’s Oldest Rivalry. The Bulldogs are fresh off a demolition of previously unbeaten Arkansas and could make another statement on the road against a top-20 Tigers team. Auburn is coming off a dramatic win over LSU — its first win in Baton Rouge since 1999.

The remaining game between two teams ranked in the AP Top 25 is in Oxford, where No. 17 Ole Miss will host No. 13 Arkansas in a game that will establish who is the second-best team in the SEC West … at least for now. 

Let’s break down the hottest stories in the SEC as well as make picks straight up and against the spread.

Appetizer: Bo Nix is focused, having fun

The meme that dominated Auburn Twitter since its spring game came to fruition on Saturday in one of the wildest performances in recent memory. Bo Nix’s first touchdown pass of the evening was very Johnny Manziel-ish, which was the precursor to a final two-plus quarters that saw the junior make magic with pressure in his face on a consistent basis.

Georgia coach Kirby Smart knows that his defense, while incredible, might have its hands full.

“His ability to extend plays is elite,” Smart said during his Monday press conference. “The play he had last week is basically all you need to show for the scout report. To do what he did against a really good SEC defense with a lot of tremendous athletes on it, to avoid and escape and keep your eyes downfield — it puts a lot of pressure on a defense to be able to cover people that long.”

What should Georgia do? Pressure up the middle with nose guard Jordan Davis is a good start. Even if Davis can’t get to Nix, he’s very likely to bail quickly, which will give those talented edge defenders a good chance to get to Nix before he has the opportunity to work his Houdini magic.

Main course: Texas A&M’s real problem

The Aggies entered this season with four holes to replace on its offensive line, and it’s clear that coach Jimbo Fisher can’t fix the issue. Yes, it’s the offensive line, not the fact that starting quarterback Haynes King got hurt in Week 2 and Zach Calzada has been inconsistent since taking over. 

The Aggies have given up 32 tackles for loss, which matches the worst mark in the conference. They’ve also given up 12 sacks, which is tied for 12th in the SEC. The Aggies rushing attack ranks 10th in the conference at 3.85 yards per attempt with Isaiah Spiller and Devon Achane back there trying to run the rock. If both of those superstars can’t get going, it should give you a strong indication that the offensive struggles of the Aggies are a much deeper problem.

If you can’t block, you can’t run the football. If you can’t run the football, you’re putting your quarterback in an extremely untenable situation heading into the biggest game of the season. Fisher is supposed to be an offensive genius, but he’s anything but this year. Elite teams are able to recruit and develop players who are ready to step in when stars depart. Recruiting hasn’t been an issue for Fisher, but development clearly is. 

Dessert: Elimination game

The Razorbacks and Rebels are coming off disappointing losses to SEC powers last week and will tee it up in Oxford on Saturday in what amounts to an elimination game in the race for the SEC West title. Yes, that’s easier to say for the Rebels since they don’t hold a tie-breaker over Alabama anymore. But it’s been a crazy five weeks, so you never know what will actually happen.

Who has the edge? These two teams are polar opposites in terms of how they want to operate. Arkansas is built to run the football, grind the clock and limit big plays on defense. Ole Miss coach Lane Kiffin would rather run a wide-open offense, use tempo and try to get at least a few stops defensively in an attempt to maximize its scoring opportunities. 

In this day and age of college football, it is probably Ole Miss. Offense drives the bus in our sport nowadays, and Kiffin’s ability to force his philosophy on opponents is the biggest reason why he will work out long term in Oxford. Maybe he should have done that after the first drive last week. Just a thought.

Week 6 picks

Straight up: 45-10 | Against the spread: 23-22

No. 13 Arkansas at No. 17 Ole Miss

There’s no doubt that Kiffin is embarrassed about last week’s “get your popcorn ready” quote, which should bring him back down enough to get back to doing what he does best: establish the tempo with the run and work from there. He got away from that last Saturday, but that won’t be the case this week against an Arkansas team that got obliterated on the ground last weekend. Kiffin cranks up the tempo, runs the ball and the passing game will explode over the final three quarters. Pick: Ole Miss (-6)

Vanderbilt at No. 20 Florida 

Congrats to the Commodores for their thrilling win over UConn last week, but good luck this week against a Florida team that is angry after falling to Kentucky last weekend. The Commodores defense has been awful so far, and Gators coach Dan Mullen will use this opportunity to open up his offense in the hopes that it catches fire down the stretch. Pick: Florida (-38.5)

South Carolina at Tennessee 

The Volunteers offense cranked up in a big way last week against Missouri to a point that, let’s be honest, they could have scored 100 points. Wide receiver Velus Jones moving to the slot more than in previous weeks paid off in a big way, and that foundation will be used by Josh Heupel to continue building his offense into a juggernaut. The Gamecocks defense won’t be able to hold the Vols under 30, and the offense won’t be able to keep up in a shootout. Pick: Tennessee (-10.5)

No. 2 Georgia at No. 18 Auburn

Georgia’s defense has been lights out this year. After what Auburn quarterback Bo Nix did to LSU last week, it’s likely that he’ll be able to work at least a little magic, even when the Bulldogs’ pressure gets him off of his mark. With that said, Georgia’s offense has shown the ability to crank things up no matter who’s taking the snaps, and that will be enough lead coach Kirby Smart’s crew to a 10-point win. But since a two-touchdown win by the Dawgs won’t win money, I’ll take the Tigers to keep it relatively close. Pick Auburn (+14.5)

North Texas at Missouri

The Tigers got torched by Tennessee so badly that coach Eli Drinkwitz fired his defensive line coach. The coaching move won’t be the reason that the Tigers will cruise, but the defensive line will get some credit. The Mean Green are 12th in Conference USA in yards per play at 4.74 and won’t have a chance to keep this one close. Pick: Missouri (-19)

LSU at No. 16 Kentucky

The Wildcats offense wasn’t great last week despite the fact that they pulled off the upset over Florida. Their defense, however, was. LSU can’t run the football, has given up even trying and won’t be able to break double-digits this weekend. With that said, as long as quarterback Will Levis doesn’t make mistakes, Mark Stoops’ crew should cruise. Pick: Kentucky (-3)

No. 1 Alabama at Texas A&M

Not many people expected a spread this big before the season started. Now that the game is here and we’ve seen what these two teams are made of, it’s clear that it isn’t big enough. Texas A&M can’t run the football which has made its passing game as painful as a toothache. Alabama is going to exploit that for a full four quarters and win this one by at least 20. Pick: Alabama (-17.5)

Which college football picks can you make with confidence in Week 6, and which national title contender will go down hard? Visit SportsLine to see which teams will win and cover the spread — all from a proven computer model that has returned almost $3,400 in profit over the past five-plus seasons — and find out.