There are few sporting events that compare with a heavyweight world championship fight in Las Vegas. That’s exactly what’s on tap Saturday night when Tyson Fury defends the WBC and lineal heavyweight championships in a third fight with Deontay Wilder.
After a controversial draw in their first fight, Fury dominated Wilder before scoring a seventh-round stoppage in the rematch. The rematch included a stipulation that the loser could initiate an immediate third fight, which Wilder did. After failing to make the fight for more than a year, Fury moved on to try and unify all four recognized heavyweight titles with Anthony Joshua only for Wilder to force the trilogy fight to happen after going to arbitration.
The two bitter rivals will now clash at T-Mobile Arena in Vegas after more than 20 months of Wilder claiming his loss was a result of a conspiracy that included his own corner working against him and Fury cheating after tampering with his gloves and using performance-enhancing drugs. Wilder has also claimed he suffered extreme fatigue after wearing an elaborate costume during his ring walk that weighed more than 40 pounds.
The pay-per-view card is made up of three heavyweight bouts ahead of the championship clash.
Can’t get enough boxing and MMA? Get the latest in the world of combat sports from two of the best in the business. Subscribe to Morning Kombat with Luke Thomas and Brian Campbell for the best analysis and in-depth news.
Just as there are few things as exciting as a heavyweight championship bout, there are few ways to add a little extra spice than to hit up the window at the sportsbook. With that in mind, let’s take a look at some of our choices for the best plays to make on the card with odds from Caesars Sportsbook.
Adam Kownacki (-220) vs. Robert Helenius (+180)
Helenius and Kownacki are meeting in their own rematch. Helenius scored a major upset in their first meeting with a fourth-round knockout. He was brought into the fight to serve as an opponent to set up Kownacki for a championship opportunity but took advantage of Kownacki’s reckless aggression to score the stoppage. The victory breathed new life into Helenius’ career after being viewed as well past his prime before upsetting Kownacki in front of his home crowd.
With all that in mind, there are two ways the fight is likely to play out: either Kownacki remains reckless with his offense and Helenius is able to pick him apart once again or Kownacki buttons up his attack a bit and is more effective in hurting and finishing a much older opponent. The latter seems like the more likely option, but either way it feels like a stoppage is coming. The fight ending in under 6.5 rounds is -125 while under 7.5 rounds is -137. Give up a little bit to give your bet the extra three minutes. Pick: Under 7.5 rounds (-137)
Frank Sanchez (-180) vs. Efe Ajagba (+155)
Ajagba vs. Sanchez is an interesting fight. Both fighters enter the ring undefeated and with a prospect label. Sanchez is a Cuban fighter with a style that makes his background clear, with technique coming before power, though the power is there. Ajagba is a Texas-based Nigerian fighter who hasn’t been perfect, despite his undefeated record. What Ajagba does have, however, is good power that has allowed him to overcome some mistakes, including when he suffered a knockdown against Iago Kiladze in a 2019 bout.
This is a big step up for both men and prospect vs. prospect fights can bring out many truths, for better or worse. The odds here on both men are intriguing without being wide enough to scare away a straight bet on a winner. Sanchez’s technical prowess likely controls the fight and Ajagba has stumbled against worse fighters. Sanchez is +175 to win by stoppage and +220 to take a decision. A decision could be the better bet there if Sanchez decides to simply outbox Ajagba and avoid trading power. Still, the safe bet is to just make a play on Sanchez to win on the moneyline. Pick: Frank Sanchez (-180)
Tyson Fury (-270) vs. Deontay Wilder (+220)
Fury is the better boxer. We have 19 rounds of data to prove this. No one in the game has the one-punch power of Wilder, very few people in boxing history have. That power means Wilder is automatically “in” every second of every fight. Wilder’s mentality is either a weakness or a strength. Either the stream of excuses is the sign of a man broken by having to suffer the harsh reality that he’s a mere mortal. Or, Wilder is so overwhelmingly confident that he can’t fathom a loss by any fair means and is unaffected by having been so thoroughly dominated.
The problem with this is if Wilder doesn’t see the flaws he brought to the ring in the first two fights — and especially the rematch — he may not have taken any steps to address them. There’s been a lot of talk that Wilder will focus on a body attack in the rematch, but it’s easy to see Fury taking advantage of Wilder trying to become a different fighter. Fury’s style is a tough one to replicate in the gym and it’s just hard to imagine this fight plays out too differently unless Wilder is able to land some fight-changing bombs.
The break-even point for round bets is 7.5, with the over and under both sitting at -120. Given Wilder’s power and Fury having even more data on Wilder than he had when he scored the seventh-round stoppage in the rematch, the under seems like a good play there. The question becomes: How low of a round total are you willing to move? Under 6.5 is +120 and under 5.5 is +175. It wouldn’t seem a smart play to go any lower than that. The most interesting play may be to combo two grouped round bets for Fury, understanding his likelihood to win and proven ability to hurt Wilder. Pick: Combine Fury in Round 4-6 (+400) with Fury in Round 7-9 (+400)
Who will win Fury vs. Wilder III? And which huge 30-1 prop bet should you be all over? Visit SportsLine now to see Brandon Wise’s best bets, all from the CBS combat sports specialist who has crushed his picks, and find out.
