The Chicago Bears (2-2) finally made the decision to go with Justin Fields as the starting quarterback moving forward, no matter the status of Andy Dalton’s health. Bears head coach Matt Nagy saw enough out of Fields last week to go with the rookie quarterback, as Fields looks to ignite an offense ranked 30th in points scored in 32nd in total yards.
Of course, Fields’ first start as the No. 1 quarterback for the Bears (he was listed as the No. 2 on the depth chart yet started two games while Dalton sat with a knee injury) will come against a resurgent Las Vegas Raiders defense that comes after the quarterback. Despite blitzing just 13.3% of the time, the Raiders have 45 pressures (eighth in the NFL) while compiling nine sacks. The Bears allow their quarterback to be sacked 13.7% of the time, by far the highest rate in the NFL.
The Raiders (3-1) are coming off a tough loss on “Monday Night Football” to the Los Angeles Chargers, losing their unbeaten start and sole possession of first place in the AFC West. Derek Carr and the passing offense couldn’t get going for four quarters as the Raiders couldn’t erase a 21-point halftime deficit. Chicago may be just what Vegas needs to get back on track this week.
How will Fields fare in his first start as QB1 for the Bears? Can Carr and the Raiders get back on track? This is one of the more intriguing AFC-NFC matchups in Week 5 and here’s what to expect in Sunday’s showdown.
How to watch
Date: Sunday, Oct. 10 | Time: 4:05 p.m. ET
Location: Allegiant Stadium (Paradise, NV)
TV: CBS | Stream: Paramount+ (click here)
Follow: CBS Sports App
Odds: Raiders -5.5, O/U 44
Key matchups
Damien Williams vs. Raiders run defense
The Bears are going to be without David Montgomery for the next month with a sprained left knee, leaving the workload at running back to Damien Williams. Chicago is still expected to pound the football with Fields starting, as his mobility will open up the run game even more. Williams is averaging 4.6 yards per carry (16 carries for 73 yards), which is good for 17th among the 62 running backs with 15 carries on the year.
Having Montgomery would have been a huge advantage for the Bears. Montgomery has 309 rushing yards this season and 176 of those yards have come after contact — the third-most in the NFL. Williams can be the bruiser Montgomery has been for the Bears if he gets the same amount of reps.
The Raiders allow 4.9 yards per carry, which is the third highest in the league. For the Bears to upset the Raiders, pounding the football and continuing to feed Williams is their strongest bet.
Derek Carr vs. Bears pass rush
Joey Bosa said after the Chargers beat the Raiders last week Carr “gets shook” once he gets hit a few times. Bosa is onto something as Carr has completed just 44.9% of his passes when under pressure, throwing for just three touchdowns to two interceptions (74.6 passer rating). When Carr has no pressure, he completes 71.9% of his passes with five touchdowns to one interception (107.7 rating).
There’s a strong chance Carr will be facing pressure from a tenacious Bears defense that is tied for the league lead in sacks (14) and third in the league in sack percentage (10.1%). Despite finishing off the play, the Bears only have 45 pressures (tied for 22nd in the NFL), but pressure the quarterback 31.3% of the time (14th in NFL).
The Bears certainly know how to get pressure in an opposing quarterback’s face, but can they do it consistently enough that Carr can’t beat them on downfield throws?
Prediction
Latest Odds: Las Vegas Raiders -5.5
Caesars Sportsbook has the Raiders as 5.5-point favorites with an over/under of 44. Both are tough to bet on as the Bears offense is still an unknown with Fields starting. Chicago’s offense looked better last week, but how much stock can one put in a win over the Lions?
The Raiders own the NFL’s worst point differential (-23) and punt the ball on 61.5% of their 1st quarter drives (third-most in NFL), so a strong start is imperative for Vegas. Against a Bears offense that has scored the third-fewest points in the league, getting an early two score lead may be all Vegas needs — if the Raiders can start out games better.
The Raiders should take care of business this week, enough to cover the spread. Stay away from the over/under, especially since Fields and how he performs is up in the air.
