While the stakes are not as high as they were when these two squads last met in the AFC Championship a season ago, this primetime showdown in Week 5 between the Kansas City Chiefs and Buffalo Bills has the potential to be the best game of this regular season. That’s how talented both clubs are. In that playoff head-to-head, the Chiefs were victorious and moved on to Super Bowl LV, but both teams are looking to be contenders in the conference yet again in 2021.
In this space, we’re going to dive into all the different betting angles that this game has to offer. Of course, we’ll give our predictions on the spread and total of this matchup along with a few of our favorite player props. We’ll also take a look a how the lines have shifted throughout the week to get a sense of which way the public is sizing this game up.
All NFL odds via Caesars Sportsbook.
How to watch
Date: Sunday, Oct. 10 | Time: 8:20 p.m. ET
Location: Arrowhead Stadium (Kansas City)
TV: NBC | Stream: fuboTV (try for free)
Follow: CBS Sports App
Odds: Chiefs -2.5, O/U 56.5
Line movement
Latest Odds: Kansas City Chiefs -2.5
The Chiefs opened as a 3.5-point favorite on Sunday, but confidence in the Bills has driven this number below a field goal margin to Chiefs -2.5. As of Friday morning, you could also take the points with Buffalo at +100.
The pick: Bills +2.5. You’re probably feeling much better if you were able to get this at +3 or higher, but I simply look at Buffalo as the better team as currently constructed and should be able to win this game outright. The Bills offense has been white hot under Josh Allen in recent weeks and is now going up against a Chiefs defense that is allowing a league-high 6.9 yards per play entering Week 5. Meanwhile, Buffalo’s defense is the highest-graded overall unit in the NFL and eighth-highest graded at applying pressure, according to Pro Football Focus. If this game forces both quarterbacks to trade blows, Allen will have a much easier time than Patrick Mahomes.
Key trend: Bills are 5-1 ATS in their last six road games.
Over/Under total
Bettors are expecting points in this showdown. After opening at 56.5 earlier in the week, the total in this game did jump up to 57 on Monday and held at that number until falling back down to its original spot on Friday. Nevertheless, this continues to be the highest total on the Week 5 slate.
The pick: Over 56.5. It’s hard to bet against two quarterbacks that have the talent that Mahomes and Allen possess to go Under even if this total is pretty lofty. They cruised over this number in the AFC title game a season ago and I do expect there to be some fireworks in this matchup. The are averaging 39.3 points per game over their last three contests and the Chiefs seemed to find a rhythm last week after dropping 42 points against the Eagles.
Key trend: Over is 4-1 in the Bills last five road games.
Patrick Mahomes props
- Passing touchdowns: 2.5 (Over +105, Under -135)
- Passing yards: 306.5 (Over -115, Under -115)
- Pass attempts: 37.5 (Over -125, Under -105)
- Completions: 26.5 (Over -105, Under -125)
- Rushing yards: 17.5 (Over -110, Under -120)
- Longest pass completion: 38.5 (Over -110, Under -120)
- Interceptions: 0.5 (Over +110, Under -140)
The Over on Mahomes’ rushing yards prop of 17.5 is intriguing. He’s gone over that number in three of his four games played this season and Buffalo did allowed Taylor Heinicke to go over this number back in Week 3. The Chiefs quarterback has also thrown for three or more touchdowns in all of his games played this season and tossed three against Buffalo in the AFC Championship, so the Over 2.5 passing touchdowns at +105 could be another interesting lean.
Josh Allen props
- Passing touchdowns: 2.5 (Over +150, Under -180)
- Passing yards: 303.5 (Over -115, Under -115)
- Pass attempts: 39.5 (Over -125, Under -105)
- Rushing yards: 32.5 (Over -120, Under -110)
- Completions: 26.5 (Over -115, Under -115)
- Longest pass completion: 38.5 (Over -115, Under -115)
- Interceptions: 0.5 (Over -110, Under -120)
The over on Allen’s passing yards prop of 303.5 at -115 is where I’m looking. Kansas City is allowing 291.8 yards through the air per game this season on a 8.8 yards per pass clip, which is the third highest in the league. I’d also lean Over on his 26.5 completions in this game as well.
Player props to consider
Emmanuel Sanders total receiving yards: Over 51.5 (-120). Sanders has found a groove in this Buffalo offense over the last two weeks, totaling 94 and 74 yards respectfully. He’s also seeing a ton of looks from Josh Allen down the field with his average depth of target sitting at a staggering 16 yards.
Darrel Williams rushing/receiving yards: Over 30.5 (-110). Williams has carved himself out a role in the Chiefs backfield, logging roughly 35% of the offensive snaps over the last two weeks. In that time, he’s received 21 touches for an average of 48.5 scrimmage yards per game.
Dawson Knox anytime touchdown (+250): The Bills tight end has come on strong as of late, scoring four touchdowns in his last three games. Knox also has had success against the Chiefs in the past, catching six passes for 42 yards and a touchdown in the AFC Championship last year.
