You’re thinking this matchup should be a wash for Week 5, and that Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are going to roll over the Miami Dolphins fairly easily, but tug the reins on your horses a bit. This is still the NFL, and anyone can defeat anyone else on any given Sunday, and that’s something even the super-competitive Brady can attest to. That said, while the defending champs will and should enter this matchup having a decided edge, they’re not whole at the moment, and the Dolphins defense will try to take advantage of that in any way they can.
Contrarily, the Dolphins offense is fractured itself, with Tua Tagovailoa still out due to a rib injury and, as such, backup quarterback Jacoby Brissett will see another start for Miami, and it’s led to the Bucs being listed as 10-point favorites to take the win, via Caesars Sportsbook. What this game might boil down to, however, is the mind of Brady versus the mind of Brian Flores — the latter being a talented defensive coach who knows Brady very well from their time spent together with the New England Patriots.
Expect a chess match of the highest order when these two mentally square off on Sunday.
How to watch
Date: Sunday, Oct. 10 | Time: 1 p.m. ET
Location: Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)
TV: CBS | Stream: Paramount+ (click here)
Follow: CBS Sports App
Odds: Buccaneers -10, O/U 48
Preview
As noted above, Brady and Flores know each other quite well. The two spent time together in New England and, in practice, it was a part of Flores’ job to dissect Brady’s every nuance in an attempt to stop him. For Brady, it was about constantly outsmarting Flores and his own defense, and now it’s about doing the same against a Dolphins team led by Flores — in an interconference matchup that pits Central Florida against South Florida in Week 5. Flores won’t have his starting quarterback in Tagovailoa, but that’s not where the game could be won even if the latter were playing. This matchup is all about the weapons the Dolphins present on defense, in a game that will either see future Hall of Fame tight end Rob Gronkowski absent with a handful of injuries, or available and extremely vulnerable.
Either way, you can sign up cornerbacks Xavien Howard and Byron Jones as the two defensive leaders in the secondary who are willing and very capable of containing anyone’s high-flying passing attack. Keep an eye on Jones though, because he’s battling a quad and Achilles injury that held him out of practice on Wednesday, but he returned in a limited capacity one day later. But if both are on the field, Brady will have his hands full.
Flipping the coin to Brissett and the Dolphins offense, well, it’ll be a much tougher go. Even if safety Antoine Winfield Jr. doesn’t clear concussion protocol this week, asking the Dolphins offensive line to hold up against a Bucs defensive front that is nothing short of animalistic might simply be too much to ask — seeing as better offensive fronts have tried and failed.
Key matchup
This game will really come down to a game of football chess between Brady and Flores, and the Dolphins defense will need to turn Brady over more than once if they’re going to keep this one close enough to potentially land a narrow upset on the road. Will Flores try to disrupt Brady’s timing with early blitz packages and, if he does, will Brady commit to his usual scheme of getting the ball out quickly to set up the deep ball later in the game?
There is much to figure out on Sunday for the Dolphins, but they’ve marched into hostile territory before as underdogs and walked away with a win, so don’t count them out here.
Prediction
That said, while the Dolphins are expected to put up a fight like the talented, scrappy bunch they are — led by a never-say-die head coach in Flores — it feels like there’s too much working against them this week. They’ll make it competitive and probably give the Buccaneers a real scare, but one too many big plays by Brady late in this game will secure it for Tampa Bay.
Buccaneers 27, Dolphins 14
