We’re on a major roll here to start the playoffs. We’ve hit two of three props bets here each of the three days, good for a 6-3 record at +610 (special thanks go out to Nelson Cruz and Yordan Alvarez for homering on Wednesday). If you hadn’t yet been paying attention, hopefully that figure perks you up. There are three more live game picks over on SportsLine, where I’ve gone 4-1-1 thus far in the playoffs, so hop on over there and subscribe. When there’s money to be made, there’s no time to waste. Here we go!
All odds courtesy of Caesars.
Corbin Burnes over 8.5 strikeouts, -115
Burnes reached nine strikeouts in 14 of his 28 starts this season, topping out at 15 with six starts of 11-plus. If we toss out his last outing — a two-inning tune-up last weekend just to get some work in — he had 50 strikeouts in 32 innings in his last five starts. He has 124 strikeouts in 88 1/3 innings at home this season. The Braves are not a contact-heavy team and they are coming off their most prolific month of striking out this season. My hunch is Burnes dominates here, but even if he gets knocked around a bit, he’s still going to record outs. A lot of the time, those are via the strikeout.
Randy Arozarena home run, +400
Arozarena had one of the best postseasons in history last season. He homered and stole home Wednesday night and he just seems to have an extra swagger to him. The supreme confidence is just oozing and, in a game of failure like baseball, that matters. Anyone who says otherwise hasn’t played above Little League.
The Red Sox are sending lefty Chris Sale to the mound. Arozarena feasted on lefties this season (.302/.386/.535). Sale got knocked around in his last two starts (against the Orioles and Nationals) and coughed up six homers in just over 40 innings this season.
The two faced each other six times this season. Arozarena got hit by a pitch, struck out four times and then singled. He’ll carry that single over, mentally, along with his playoff confidence and park a high Sale fastball.
Walker Buehler over 5.5 strikeouts, +105
Buehler struck out at least six batters in 19 of his 33 outings and averages more than a strikeout per inning. Last time he faced the Giants, he was shelled and struck out only one hitter in three innings. That seems to be what keeps this figure down at underdog odds. The previous two times he faced the Giants, he struck out nine and eight, respectively. Also, he’s struck out 83 in 61 1/3 innings in his career in the playoffs. The Giants have a powerful offense, but they will swing and miss. Only eight teams struck out more often this season.
