NFL odds, Vegas lines, picks, spreads, bets, predictions for Week 5, 2021: Model high on Patriots, Packers

The Cleveland Browns have won three straight after dropping their season-opener to the Chiefs, but now they’ll face a challenge on the Week 5 NFL schedule: A date with the Los Angeles Chargers. The Chargers are two-point home favorites in the latest NFL odds from Caesars Sportsbook after soundly defeating the Raiders on Monday Night Football, and their lone loss came to the Cowboys in Week 2. At not even a field goal, it’s one of the slimmest NFL spreads of the week.

Cleveland’s 3-1 record puts the Browns in a three-way tie with the Ravens and Bengals for first place in the AFC North standings. The Ravens are seven-point favorites against the Colts, one of the largest NFL Vegas odds this week, while the Bengals are three-point underdogs against the Packers. All of the NFL lines are listed below, and before making any Week 5 NFL picks on these games or others, be sure to see the Week 5 NFL predictions from the proven computer model at SportsLine.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up almost $7,900 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception six-plus years ago. It went a sizzling 24-14 on top-rated NFL picks last season, returning more than $800. The model also enters Week 5 of the 2021 season on an incredible 124-82 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season.

The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past five years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94 percent of CBS Sports Football Pick’em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

Now, it has turned its attention to the latest Week 5 NFL odds from Caesars and locked in picks for every NFL matchup. Head here to see every pick.

Top Week 5 NFL predictions

One of the top Week 5 NFL predictions the model recommends: The Patriots (-9) cover the spread against the Texans in almost 60 percent of simulations. All eyes were on New England’s game last Sunday against Tampa Bay, and the Patriots lost a close one, 19-17. New England head coach Bill Belichick is now 1-3 this season, and a weak Texans side gets to face his wrath after he lost to former Patriots quarterback Tom Brady.

The Patriots are 8-7 against the spread after a loss since 2019, but last Sunday wasn’t just any loss. Houston was shut out by Buffalo, 40-0, and Belichick will smell the blood in the water. The Texans pressure opposing quarterbacks at the second-lowest rate in the league, and have just seven sacks this season. Patriots quarterback Mac Jones continues to be the most efficient and productive rookies in 2021, and he’s projected to top 280 yards passing and is a threat for another two touchdowns. SportsLine’s model predicts that New England covers the nine-point spread in just over 50 percent of simulations.

Another one of its Week 5 NFL predictions: The Packers (-3) cover on the road against the Bengals in a matchup of 3-1 teams. After scoring just three points in the opener against the Saints, Green Bay is averaging 30.6 per game over its last three contests. Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers has been sensational during Green Bay’s three-game winning streak, throwing eight touchdowns and zero interceptions during that span. In addition to an efficient offense, the Packers feature a formidable defense, giving up 311.5 yards per game on average, the sixth-best mark in the NFL.

Plus, the Packers have been a tough out on the road, winning 10 of their last 14 games away from home. The model has also taken into account that Green Bay is 9-4 against the spread in its last 13 games against opponents from the AFC North. SportsLine’s model shows Rodgers throwing for 266 yards and two touchdowns, resulting in the Packers covering the spread in over 50 percent of simulations. 

How to make Week 5 NFL picks 

The model has also made the call on who wins and covers in every other game on the Week 5 NFL schedule, and it’s calling for a Super Bowl contender to go down hard. You can only get every pick for every game at SportsLine.

So what NFL picks can you make with confidence? And which Super Bowl contender goes down hard? Check out the latest NFL odds below, then visit SportsLine to see which teams win and cover the spread, all from a proven computer model that has returned almost $7,900 since its inception, and find out.

Week 5 NFL odds, spreads, lines

Sunday, Oct. 10

Jets at Falcons (-2.5, 45)

Dolphins at Buccaneers (-10, 48)

Eagles at Panthers (-3, 45)

Saints at Washington (+2, 43.5)

Titans at Jaguars (+4.5, 48.5)

Lions at Vikings (-10, 49)

Broncos at Steelers (PK, 39.5)

Packers at Bengals (+3, 50.5)

Patriots at Texans (+9, 39.5)

Bears at Raiders (-4.5, 44)

Browns at Chargers (-2, 47)

Giants at Cowboys (-7, 52)

49ers at Cardinals (-6, 49)

Bills at Chiefs (-2.5, 56.5)

Monday, Oct. 11

Colts at Ravens (-7, 45.5)