It’s expected to be a slugfest on Saturday when Big Ten foes face off with the third-ranked Iowa Hawkeyes hosting the No. 4 Penn State Nittany Lions at Kinnick Stadium in Iowa City. The defenses rank second and third in the nation in scoring, with Iowa (5-0) giving up just 11.6 points per game and the Nittany Lions (5-0) yielding 12. The Hawkeyes thrashed Maryland 51-14 last Friday, while Penn State eased to a 24-0 victory against Indiana on Saturday. Iowa won the last meeting between the teams, blowing out the Nittany Lions 41-21 in State College in November. Penn State leads the all-time series 17-13.
Kickoff is set for 4 p.m. ET. The Hawkeyes are 1.5-point favorites in the latest Penn State vs. Iowa odds from Caesars Sportsbook, while the over-under for total points scored is 41. Before making any Iowa vs. Penn State picks, make sure to check out the college football predictions and analysis from the proven SportsLine Projection Model.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every FBS college football game 10,000 times. Over the past five-plus years, the proprietary computer model has generated a stunning profit of almost $3,400 for $100 players on its top-rated college football picks against the spread. It also enters Week 6 of the 2021 season on a 12-4 run on all top-rated college football side picks. Anyone who has followed it has seen huge returns.
Now, the model has locked in on Iowa vs. Penn State and just released its picks and analysis. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model’s CFB picks. Here are the CFB odds and betting lines for Penn State vs. Iowa:
- Penn State vs. Iowa: Hawkeyes -1.5
- Penn State vs. Iowa over-under: 41 points
- Penn State vs. Iowa money line: Nittany Lions +110, Hawkeyes -130
- PSU: The Nittany Lions are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games overall
- IOWA: The Hawkeyes are 6-2 ATS against ranked opponents since 2019
Featured Game | Iowa Hawkeyes vs. Penn State Nittany Lions
Why the Hawkeyes can cover
The defense has carried the team so far. It ranks seventh in the nation in total yards allowed (271.4) and is tied for most in the nation with 16 takeaways. The Hawkeyes have 12 interceptions, led by Riley Moss with three, and seven other players have recorded at least one. They forced seven turnovers in last week’s rout, and the defense will come in buzzing off that performance. Linebacker Jack Campbell has made plays all over the field, leading the team in tackles with 46, posting a sack and recovering two fumbles, returning one for a touchdown.
The Hawkeyes forced four turnovers in last year’s matchup and rushed for 175 yards. The favorite is 4-1 against the spread in their last five meetings. Iowa’s offense has been an afterthought, but quarterback Spencer Petras is experienced and cautious. He has seven TDs and just one interception, and tight end Sam LaPorta is the top receiver with 22 catches for 263 yards. Running back Tyler Goodson has rushed for 430 yards and five TDs. The Iowa offense averages just 320 total yards, but it is still averaging more than 33 points per game.
Why the Nittany Lions can cover
Before last year’s loss, the Nittany Lions had won six straight meetings, and they turned the ball over too often in that game. They have three turnovers this year, and QB Sean Clifford has been more efficient. He is completing more than 67 percent of his throws, with 1,336 yards, 11 TDs and three interceptions. Receiver Jahan Dotson has 35 catches (T-13 in FBS) and has scored six times. Parker Watson also is a reliable target with 25 receptions, and both receivers average more than 12.5 yards per catch. PSU is 5-2 against the spread in the last seven meetings.
Defense has also been the signature of Penn State, which is allowing 313.4 yards per game and rarely lets teams score. It faces an Iowa offense that is 96th in FBS in passing and 99th in rushing. The Nittany Lions have forced nine turnovers, led by safety Ji’Ayir Brown’s three interceptions. Linebacker U has its usual playmakers at the position, including Brandon Smith (32 tackles, one sack), Ellis Brooks (30 tackles, one sack) and Jesse Luketa (22 tackles, one interception).
How to make Penn State vs. Iowa picks
The model is going under on the total, projecting the teams will combine for 38 points. It also has generated a point-spread pick that is hitting in well over 60 percent of simulations. You can only get the model’s Iowa vs. Penn State ATS pick at SportsLine.
So who wins the Iowa vs. Penn State matchup on Saturday? And which side of the spread is hitting well over 60 percent of the time? Visit SportsLine right now to see which side of the Penn State vs. Iowa spread to back Saturday, all from the advanced model on a 12-4 run on its top-rated college football picks, and find out.
