Two reeling AFC South teams meet this Sunday, as the Tennessee Titans travel to Jacksonville to take on the Jaguars. These two teams are struggling for different reasons. While the Jags have yet to win a game, they are also dealing with some off-field noise after Urban Meyer’s interesting weekend. The Titans on the other hand are very banged up, and just suffered a loss to the lowly New York Jets.
The Titans have won the past three games against the Jaguars, but we saw how much injuries affected them in Week 4. Additionally, rookie quarterback Trevor Lawrence has been improving each week, and he even helped Jacksonville secure a double-digit lead on the road against the Cincinnati Bengals last week before it all came crumbling down. He’s gaining confidence each week. Tennessee gave Zach Wilson his breakout performance last Sunday, could it be Lawrence’s turn to find the win column in Week 5?
Below, we will break down this matchup from a gambling perspective and examine the line movement, Over/Under and player props to consider. First, here’s how you can watch Sunday’s matchup.
All NFL odds are via Caesars Sportsbook.
How to watch
Date: Sunday, Oct. 10 | Time: 1 p.m. ET
Location: TIAA Bank Field (Jacksonville, Florida)
TV: CBS | Stream: Paramount+ (click here)
Follow: CBS Sports App
Odds: Titans -4.5, O/U 48.5
Line movement
Latest Odds: Tennessee Titans -4.5
This line reopened TEN -7 last Tuesday, but suffered a huge tumble on Sunday night after the Titans’ loss to the Jets, falling to TEN -3.5. It bumped back up to TEN -4 on Monday, and then went up another half-point to TEN -4.5 on Thursday.
The pick: Titans -4.5. This is not a spread I recommend splurging on, but if I had to pick, I’m leaning toward the Titans. The main reason is because of Derrick Henry. He leads the NFL with 510 rushing yards and four touchdowns. It appears going for 2,000 yards in two straight seasons is on the table. He’s also known as the Jaguars killer, as two of Henry’s three best performances in the regular season have come against the Jags. In 2018, he rushed for 238 yards and four touchdowns against Jacksonville, and then 215 yards and two touchdowns last season. The Titans will be getting A.J. Brown back out wide, which should help the offense as well.
Over/Under 48.5
Latest Odds: Over 48.5
The total reopened at 52 last Thursday, but fell to 48.5 on Sunday, where it remained.
The pick: Over 48.5. I’m leaning Over in this matchup. The Over is 18-9 (+738) in games where the Titans played with a standard seven or eight days off. The Over is 7-0 (+637) in games where the Jaguars played with extra rest.
Player props
Dan Arnold receiving yards: Over 22.5 (-115). Arnold, the new addition for the Jags, caught two passes for 29 yards in his debut for Jacksonville. It felt like he was a legitimate part of the passing game, so I’ll take the Over here.
Anthony Firkser receptions: Over 2.5 (+100). Firkser has played in just two games so far this season due to injury, but he’s caught at least three passes in both contests. He is the starting tight end for the Titans now and was targeted five times last week.
Derrick Henry receptions: Over 2.5 (+155). Last week was the first time I lost on this prop. Henry was targeted just twice in the passing game, which marked a season low. I’ll take another flier on the Over this week, especially at plus money. Henry has caught at least three passes in three out of four games so far this season.
