The Ravens are huge favorites against the Colts and are still worth taking, plus other best bets for Monday

One of the best parts of being a sports fan is coming up with dumb ideas that might be brilliant, and I was struck over the head with one on Sunday night. I was watching Game 3 of the ALDS between the Rays and Red Sox when Tampa’s Manuel Margot tried to steal second base. Margot beat the throw, but as often happens, his momentum carried him off the bag while sliding, and he was ruled out as Xander Bogaerts kept his glove on him. It was pretty cut and dry.

But what if it wasn’t? MLB commissioner Rob Manfred has tried all sorts of rule changes to make baseball more entertaining, and he’s hired Theo Epstein to figure out possible changes, too. Well, gentlemen, if you’re reading this (and why wouldn’t you be), I have one: What if we treat second and third base the same way we treat first base and home plate? What I’m saying is, what if a baserunner only has to touch the base to earn safety. They can slide through it or run through it. It’s standard practice at first where it’s always a force-out, and the runner can run 100 feet past the bag and down the first base line if he chooses. It’s only when he makes a move toward second that he’s “live” again.

Do the same thing at second and third! It would encourage more aggressive baserunning, which would increase scoring and provide more actionable moments during a game.

Think of the incredible slides you see at home plate when a player is trying to avoid a tag, and now imagine those same slides being commonplace at second and third. A baserunner wouldn’t have to worry about sliding in a way to stay on the base but instead could just focus on beating the ball and the tag.

All I’m saying is that MLB should try it at the minor league level or in an independent league, like it has tried other drastic rule changes. It’s an easy change that might significantly impact the entertainment value.

• The Steelers have lost one of their top receivers for the rest of the season.
• Has Carolina become a potential destination for Deshaun Watson?
• It has been zero days since an MLB player accused the Astros of cheating.
• The Big Ten has a better shot of getting two teams in the playoff right now than the SEC does.

OK, now that I’ve improved baseball, it’s time to improve your retirement fund.

All times Eastern, and all odds via Caesars Sportsbook

🔥 The Hot Ticket

🏈 Colts at Ravens, 8:15 p.m. | TV: ESPN

The Pick: Ravens -7 (-110): Let me start by saying how loathe I am to bet favorites of this size in NFL games. It goes against nearly everything I believe about betting the NFL. And that’s why you should be confident in the selection. I wouldn’t be here publicly touting a play I hate if it wasn’t the right play, and based on everything I’ve seen, it’s the right play.

The Ravens are legitimate Super Bowl contenders. They’ve won three of their first four games and were an overtime away from a 4-0 start. The Colts are a team that began the season with the hope that playing in a terrible division would offer them a path to the playoffs, where they’d likely lose to a good team. Instead, that no longer seems possible after a 1-3 start to the season. The best player on the Colts offense is Jonathan Taylor, and he’s dealing with a knee injury that’s kept him limited in practice all week. Carson Wentz will play, but he’s Carson Wentz.

OK, that last sentence was cruel, but the biggest problem this Colts offense has faced in 2021 has been the red zone. This season, the Colts have had 15 drives into the red zone and have reached the end zone on only six of them. Their 40% TD rate in the red zone is the worst in the NFL, and their overall score rate of 73.3% ranks 28th. Tonight they face a Ravens team that has scored on every red zone possession it’s had and has found the end zone eight times in 11 trips. Baltimore has been above average defensively in the red zone, ranking 13th in the league in score rate against. The Colts rank 23rd. The Colts will need big plays to stay in this game, but they’re bad at that too. Through four weeks, the Colts have had 13 plays of 20 yards or more, which ranked 26th in the league heading into Week 5 (it ranks 30th following Sunday’s games). It’s hard to find a path to victory or a cover for the Colts here.

Key Trend: The Ravens have covered in nine of their last 12 games.

Here’s what SportsLine is saying about the game: SportsLine’s Mike Tierney is 19-10 ATS in his last 29 picks involving the Baltimore Ravens, and he has a pick posted for tonight’s game.

💰 The Picks

⚾ MLB Playoffs

Rays at Red Sox, 7:07 p.m. | TV: FS1

The Pick: Rays (+101) — I know Rays fans woke up angry this morning over the way Game 3 ended Sunday night, but I think they’ll go to bed tonight a lot happier. This series seems destined to go five games, as the Red Sox will be sending Eduardo Rodriguez to the mound. Rodriguez started Game One and faced only nine batters before getting pulled. In that time, he walked two, allowed two runs, and looked ineffective. In other words, he looked a lot like the same guy he looked like against Tampa all season long. In four starts against Tampa during the regular season, Rodriguez had an ERA of 4.71 and allowed four homers in 21 innings as Rays hitters slashed .277/.310/.506 against him.

Rodriguez doesn’t miss enough bats to overcome his high walk rate, which is a more serious problem for him against a Tampa offense that has swing-and-miss to its game but takes walks and hits for power. Collin McHugh starts for Tampa, but he won’t stick around long. McHugh pitched only 12 innings across his seven “starts” for the Rays this season. Tampa will hope to get two innings from him before turning the ball over to its bullpen to play matchups for the final seven. Considering how effective the Rays pen is, it’s not a bad strategy.

Key Trend: The Rays are 35-31 as underdogs this season.

Giants at Dodgers, 9:37 p.m. | TV: TBS

The Pick: Under 7.5 (-115) — I told you last week that if the total in a baseball playoff game is 7.5 or higher, I start with the under and try to talk myself out of it. I was able to do that in the Rays-Red Sox game. I’m not able to do it here. How could I? We’re talking about a night game at Dodger Stadium, and, while Dodger Stadium has been home run friendly in recent years, it does not yield a lot of hits that stay in the ballpark.

That’s important because tonight’s pitching matchup features two pitchers who are well below the league-average walk rate.

Max Scherzer is Max Scherzer. He’s going to strike a lot of people out and occasionally allow a solo shot. San Francisco’s Alex Wood has a much different approach. While Scherzer is trying to blow you away with lightning stuff, Alex Wood is more your prototypical “crafty southpaw.” Wood doesn’t strike nearly as many hitters out, but he doesn’t allow hard contact or fly balls, either. That plays well with one of the best defenses in baseball working behind him. This one will be tense and low-scoring.

Key Trend: The under is 5-2-1 in the last eight meetings. 

🔒 SportsLine Pick of the Day: The favorite MLB play of the day from SportsLine’s Projection Model is on tonight’s ALDS game between the Red Sox and Rays.

 🏈 Monday Night Football Props

• Lamar Jackson Under 66.5 rushing yards (-110)
• Marquise Brown Over 55.5 receiving yards (-115)
• Mark Andrews to score a TD (+145)