The Atlanta Braves are one win away from their second straight trip to the National League Championship Series. On Monday, the Braves topped the Milwaukee Brewers in Game 3 of the National League Division Series thanks to Joc Pederson’s pinch-hit three-run home run (ATL 3, MIL 0). Historically, the team that wins Game 3 when a best-of-five is tied at a game apiece has gone on to win the series 72 percent of the time. The odds are in Atlanta’s favor.
Game 4 is set for Tuesday evening at Truist Park. You can view the full postseason schedule by clicking here. With that throat-clearing out of the way, let’s get to the important stuff for Game 4.
How to watch
Date: Tuesday, Oct. 12 | Time: 5:07 p.m. ET
Location: Truist Park (Atlanta, Georgia)
TV: TBS | Stream: TBS app
Odds: TBD (via Caesars Sportsbook)
Starting pitchers: TBA vs. TBA
Preview
Neither team has announced their Game 4 starter, though it is likely to be lefty Eric Lauer (7-5, 3.19 ERA) vs. righty Huascar Ynoa (4-6, 4.05 ERA). They were rotation staples this summer and neither club seems likely to bring their Game 1 starter back on short rest. In fact, Brewers manager Craig Counsell confirmed Game 1 starter Corbin Burnes will not start Game 4, so Lauer is the obvious candidate. In all likelihood Counsell will have a quick hook anyway.
For the Braves, the story of the NLDS has been run suppression. They pitched back-to-back shutouts in Games 2 and 3, and the Brewers have scored only two runs in the series, both on Rowdy Tellez’s two-run home run in Game 1. Pederson has driven in more runs with pinch-hit homers (four) than Milwaukee has scored all series (two). The Brewers are 0 for 16 with runners in scoring position in the NLDS. The offense must show up in Game 4 to extend the season.
Prediction
The pitching has been excellent — Burnes, Brandon Woodruff, and Freddy Peralta have combined to allow three runs in 16 innings in the series — but the bats have completed disappeared for the Brewers, and I’m not particularly confident they will show up with the season on the line in Game 4. Every postseason there seems to be that one team that inexplicably stops hitting, and it looks like the Brewers are that team this year. The NLDS ends Tuesday.
Pick: Braves 5, Brewers 1
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