SEC college football picks, odds in Week 7: Georgia handles unbeaten Kentucky, Alabama bounces back

It’ll be an all-SEC Saturday this weekend as every team will play a conference game for the first time this season. The headliner is the SEC East showdown between undefeated foes Georgia and Kentucky in Athens. The Bulldogs are ranked No. 1 in the nation during the regular season for the first time since 1982, while the Wildcats are fresh off of a dominating win over LSU to push their record to 6-0.

It isn’t the only big-time game in the conference, though. No. 17 Arkansas will host Auburn, which fell to Georgia last weekend while suffering its first conference loss of the season. Basically, it’s do-or-die for both of these teams considering the Razorbacks already have two SEC losses on their resume. 

No. 5 Alabama, meanwhile, will look to rebound from last weekend’s stunning loss to Texas A&M as the Crimson Tide travel to raucous Starkville to face a Mississippi State team that beat those same Aggies just two weeks ago. 

Let’s break down this coming weekend of SEC action and make picks straight up and against the spread. 

Appetizer: Ed Orgeron’s last chance

LSU coach Ed Orgeron’s seat is hotter than spicy jambalaya following last week’s loss to Kentucky, and No. 10 Florida could be the final nail in the coffin. The Tigers looked completely uninspired against the Wildcats, have lost two straight and are sitting on the brink of three straight rivalry games vs. the Gators, Ole Miss and Alabama. 

Orgeron led the program to its first national title since 2007 just two years ago but knows that last year’s .500 record, this year’s struggles and off-the-field issues aren’t what athletic director Scott Woodward expects.

“The best thing for me to do is be very positive. Understand the expectation of LSU,” Orgeron said on Monday. “I will say this and I will say it again: no one has to tell me the LSU expectation. I know them, I was born with them, so I understand. I understand this is not the LSU standard of performance. I understand my job. I get it totally, I know exactly where I’m at and I’m going to go to work as hard as I can today and don’t blink.”

If Woodward doesn’t want to scar the program any further, pulling the plug after the first of those three — assuming the Gators take care of business — could be a last resort to prevent further embarrassment. 

Main course: Kentucky is going to have to change

The mood is jubilant in Lexington as the Wildcats have started 6-0, but that doesn’t mean things are as perfect as they sometimes seem. The Wildcats are 10th in the SEC in total offense at 411.8 yards per game, ninth in scoring offense at 31 points per game and eighth in plays of 40 or more yards with six. 

That won’t cut it if they intend to be an elite program and will be a massive problem this week vs. Georgia. We’ve all heard about just how great the Bulldogs are, but they’ve only given up two plays of 40 or more yards, held opponents to 27.59% on third down and have only allowed opponents to enter the red zone eight times in six games. 

“I really haven’t put much thought into other great defenses,” Kentucky coach Mark Stoops said. “We certainly have played a lot of great defenses through our time here. I didn’t put any thought into that, but you watch these guys on film, it’s another level. It’s another level of good. It’s really impressive what they’re doing defensively.”

Can the Wildcats adapt? They’re going to have to in Athens. Otherwise, this dream season is going to come crashing to a halt faster than a poorly-conceived bet at Keeneland.

Dessert: The weakness of the Tide defense

The Crimson Tide’s defensive deficiency reared its ugly head in the loss to Texas A&M last week when the front seven, particularly the linebackers, were dominated by the Aggies. Henry To’o To’o and Christian Harris were wildly out of position at times in the loss, which allowed the Aggies running game to heat up in a way that was supposed to be its identity all year. The previously-hapless Aggies offense averaged a whopping 6.53 yards per play in one of the most surprising outcomes in recent college football history.

Is that a trend or just a blip on the radar? It’s a trend … at least on the road. 

The only other true road game that they’ve played was against Florida, where they gave up 6.18 yards per play to a Gators team that isn’t exactly an offensive juggernaut. A defense that gives up big plays on the road screams “communication issues,” which is something that coach Nick Saban referenced going into halftime on Saturday night. 

If Alabama is going to stay in the national title race, it’s going to have to clean up those communication issues. After all, road trips to Mississippi State and Auburn await.

Week 7 picks

Straight up: 51-11 | Against the spread: 26-26

Auburn at No. 17 Arkansas

Auburn quarterback Bo Nix figured out how to solve his road woes two weekends ago in Baton Rouge, so he should have plenty of confidence going into an 11 a.m. local time kickoff in Fayetteville. Expect the Tigers to take a page out of Georgia’s game plan vs. the Hogs, pound the rock and work off play-action to take advantage of one-on-one situations downfield. Arkansas quarterback KJ Jefferson is a beast, which means that Auburn offensive coordinator Mike Bobo will do everything he can to keep him on the sideline. Take the Tigers straight up. Pick: Auburn (+3.5)

No. 20 Florida at LSU

I’m stunned that the Gators are only 10.5-point favorites over a broken LSU team that not only has an embattled coach but just lost its best player for the season, wide receiver Kayshon Boutte. The Gators got right last weekend against Vanderbilt and will light up a Tiger defense that wasn’t even able to slow down Kentucky’s offense last weekend. Yeah, it’ll be played in Death Valley, but the combination of an 11 a.m. kickoff and a disinterested fan base will make this one a blowout. Pick: Florida (-10.5)

No. 21 Texas A&M at Missouri

The Aggies are 8.5-point road favorites over a Tigers defense that, quite frankly, has been one of the biggest disappointments of the SEC season — especially over the last three games. I get that there’s the opportunity for the Jimbo Fisher’s squad to be hungover after celebrating last week’s win over Alabama, but the confidence that the offensive line gained against the Crimson Tide combined with Missouri’s woes up front should make this one a blowout. Pick: Texas A&M (-8.5)

No. 11 Kentucky at No. 1 Georgia

It seems crazy to see a battle between two 6-0 teams have a spread as big as this, but there’s a very good reason that Georgia is a 23.5-point favorite over Kentucky in Athens. The Bulldogs are the most complete team in football and the Wildcats are way too inconsistent on offense. As mentioned above, there is going to have to be some sort of drastic change in how their offense operates to even have a chance, but their defense will still have to find a way to shut down the Bulldogs’ rushing attack, even if some sort of offensive renaissance occurs. This will be a 30-point win for Kirby Smart’s squad. Pick: Georgia (-23.5)

Vanderbilt at South Carolina

The battle for the bottom of the SEC East has the Gamecocks installed as 18.5-point favorites over the Commodores. Seriously, that’s how bad the season has been for Vanderbilt. While I like Gamecocks coach Shane Beamer and think that he will get that team going in the right direction over the next couple of seasons, they aren’t good enough to be nearly three-score favorites over another conference foe. This has more of a 21-10-type feel to it with very little offense on either side. Pick: Vanderbilt (+18.5)

No. 5 Alabama at Mississippi State

Alabama struggled with assignments and run fits against Texas A&M, but that won’t be an issue against a Bulldogs team that doesn’t really try to run the ball. Because of that, the Crimson Tide secondary will force multiple mistakes from quarterback Will Rogers and put quarterback Bryce Young in short fields. At that point, it’ll be all over. Brian Robinson will have three or more scores, top 150 yards on the ground and the Crimson Tide will get out of Starkville with an easy win. Pick: Alabama (-17.5)

No. 13 Ole Miss at Tennessee

Tennessee’s offense has found life under quarterback Hendon Hooker, who, quite frankly, should have been starting from the outset. With that said, Ole Miss’ offense has been explosive for two years under coach Lane Kiffin, and that won’t change this season. It’s hard to peg what Rebels defense will show up on Saturday, but it’ll do enough to get one or two stops, which will be enough to earn the Rebels a seven-point win on Rocky Top. Pick: Ole Miss (-3)

Which college football picks can you make with confidence in Week 7, and which top-10 team will get a huge scare? Visit SportsLine to see which teams will win and cover the spread — all from a proven computer model that has returned almost $3,800 in profit over the past five-plus seasons — and find out.