The divisional round of the 2021 Major League Baseball playoffs is nearly complete. Our one-and-only Game 5 awaits on Thursday night at 9 p.m. ET in San Francisco’s Oracle Park. It’s two of the 23 106-plus win teams in the history of baseball squaring off in the Giants and Dodgers.
As has been and will continue to be the case, I’m doing the game picks over on SportsLine. I’ve gone 13-3-1 thus far in the playoffs — and that was after an 0-1-1 (moneyline and over/under pick) start in the AL wild card game — so hop on over there and subscribe.
In this space, we’ll focus on props, the over/under and other fun.
All odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook.
Under 7, -120
Giants starter Logan Webb had a 2.40 ERA in his last 20 starts in the regular season and threw 7 2/3 scoreless innings against this lineup in Game 1 of the series. He had a 1.96 ERA in the regular season in Oracle, too. If there are concerns about him seeing the Dodgers again with such a quick turnaround, we’ll alleviate those by pointing out he faced the Dodgers twice in a row in late July and only allowed one run in six innings in the second start.
On the other side, the Dodgers are going to open with right-handed reliever Corey Knebel before turning things over to southpaw Julio Urías. This is because the platoon-heavy Giants usually configure their lineup based upon whether the opposing pitcher is a righty or lefty. Regardless, Urías was very good in Game 2 and has been excellent for months. He showed his ability to effectively get length as a reliever last postseason, too.
We’re in for a duel.
Giants score first, +115
I believe Webb is going to deal again. There’s a part of me that hates the concept of the opener, but on paper — see above — it actually makes sense against a team like the Giants. Still, I can’t shake the feeling that the Giants scratch one across early, maybe even off of Knebel in the first inning, clearing the way for a lot of hot takes on the strategy.
Logan Webb over 5.5 strikeouts
Including Game 1, Webb has now faced the Dodgers four times this season. He has a 1.52 ERA and 27 strikeouts in 23 2/3 innings.
The Dodgers have a very good offense, but it can be stifled and struck out. They struck out 11 times (10 by the starter) in Game 1 and nine times (seven by the starter) in Game 2.
I believe the perfect game plan for Gabe Kapler would be to get six innings from Webb and one each from top relievers Tyler Rogers, Jake McGee and Camilo Doval.
In six innings, Webb only then needs to strikeout one hitter per inning. In his last 13 starts, including Game 1 of this series, he’s topped 5.5 strikeouts 11 times.
