Aaron Rodgers did it to me again. That sadistic so-and-so stuck a dagger in my heart on Sunday just like he’s done on so many Sundays, and this time he even made a point to remind me and my fellow Bears fans who’s really in charge around here.
And I couldn’t even get angry about it. I wanted to, I really wanted to, but when you’re right, you’re right. Aaron Rodgers does own the Chicago Bears. So much so that when he’s enshrined in the Pro Football Hall of Fame one day — hopefully soon! — I almost wonder if he should have a bunch of former Bears give his induction speech as a way of thanking them for making it all possible.
I hate you, Aaron. So, so, so much. Please just leave my family and me alone. We did nothing to you, and we don’t deserve to be treated like this. All we want is to wake up and enjoy a Sunday, yet at least twice a season, you just show up in our living room and make our lives a living hell. And for what? I think you need to take some time to self-reflect and ask yourself what’s inside you that makes you such an evil person. Maybe go on a spiritual journey of growth that takes place very far away from a football field.
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All right, let’s focus on winning money while hopefully Aaron Rodgers focuses on getting the help he needs.
All times Eastern, and all odds via Caesars Sportsbook
🔥 The Hot Ticket
Astros at Red Sox, 8:08 p.m. | TV: Fox
The Pick: Astros (+101): I can tell you right now, any time the Astros are underdogs in this series, I’m going to be betting the Astros. I know that the Red Sox jumped out to the early 8-0 lead on Saturday thanks to two grand slams, but I take that game to be something of a flukish result. Boston is a team with mediocre pitching, lousy defense, and an offense capable of hitting grand slams in consecutive innings. But it’s hard to rely on your offense scoring a bunch of runs every game in the postseason, even if tonight’s not a terrible matchup against Jose Urquidy.
The problem Boston faces is similar to the one it faced in Game 1. Eduardo Rodriguez gets the start tonight, and while he doesn’t have the same strikeout rate Chris Sale has, he does rely on them a bit. Unfortunately, his walk rate is higher at 7%, but he makes up for it slightly by avoiding too much hard contact. The problem is — as we’ve gone over before — this Astros lineup destroys lefties. This season, it led MLB in wRC+ against lefties and had a league-low strikeout rate of 18.3% against them.
The Coach, Jonathan Coachman, is joined by Allie O’Neill, Zack Cimini and Larry Hartstein to dish out Monday’s best bets. Download and follow The Early Edge on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.
The Astros don’t strike out, and they hit with power. Even if Rodriguez can limit the home run power, he still has to rely on a bad defense to run down all the balls that will be flying across Fenway. I don’t think Boston can win tonight without scoring at least six runs, which, again, it’s capable of. It’s still a lot to ask, though.
Key Trend: The Astros are 11-5 in their last 16 playoff games as an underdog.
Here’s what SportsLine is saying about the game: SportsLine’s Projection Model, which simulates every game 10,000 times, has generated picks for Monday’s Game 3 matchup between the Houston Astros and Boston Red Sox.
💰The Picks
🏈 Monday Night Football
Bills at Titans, 8:15 p.m | TV: ESPN
The Pick: Derrick Henry Under 96.5 rushing yards (-115) — I’m staying away from the spread and total for tonight’s game because I worry about Buffalo being valued a little too highly after last week’s win over Kansas City. At the same time, Tennessee’s defense gives me a few too many concerns to want to trust it to slow down the Bills offense enough to stay within range.
Instead, I’ll attack some props, starting with Derrick Henry. Buffalo has the best defense in the NFL. Whether you want to use traditional stats, or newer, more advanced metrics, they’re all going to tell you the same thing. Buffalo enters the night ranked fourth in the league in yards allowed per carry (3.66), second in defensive rush EPA against, and first in defensive success rate against the run. You can be sure that the Titans will want to lean on Henry tonight, but that doesn’t mean he will find much success.
Last season, Henry managed only 57 yards on 19 carries against this Buffalo defense. In his career, Henry has faced Buffalo three times and averaged 3.82 yards per carry and 63.7 rushing yards per game against them.
Key Trend: Derrick Henry has never rushed for more than 78 yards in a game against Buffalo.
Bills at Titans, 8:15 p.m | TV: ESPN
The Pick: Josh Allen Over 31.5 rushing yards (-110) — Quarterback rushing props remain one of my favorites to bet, particularly for QBs like Josh Allen. Allen is huge with a rocket arm, but you get the sense he doesn’t even feel like he’s in a football game until he gets hit, and sometimes he goes looking for it by scrambling. Allen is averaging 37.6 rushing yards per game and is at 35.7 per game during his career. Tonight he faces a Tennessee defense that has been pretty good against rushing QBs so far — and it has faced Kyler Murray, Russell Wilson and Trevor Lawrence — but will still be susceptible tonight.
Part of what makes Allen rushing totals a good bet is that he’s capable of scrambling for long gains, but that runs for first down conversions often seem like part of Buffalo’s plan. You’ll see a lot of vertical routes that lead to one of two outcomes. Either somebody like Stefon Diggs gets open deep, and Allen unleashes a laser-guided missile or the receivers drag the coverage with them and leave Allen plenty of room to scramble. It’s the reason why 48.6% of Allen’s rushes result in first downs. He scrambles with a purpose, which means it’s part of the game plan.
Key Trend: Allen has rushed for at least 32 yards in four of Buffalo’s five games this season.
🔒 SportsLine Pick of the Day: SportsLine’s Larry Hartstein is 20-7-1 in his last 28 ATS picks involving the Titans, and he has a play posted for tonight’s game.
⚽ Champions League Parlay
A three-leg moneyline parlay paying +128 for Tuesday’s Champions League action.
- Manchester City (-360)
- Inter Milan (-560)
- Paris St. Germain (-195)
