Hello, I am writing this to you from a barge currently sailing through the streets of Chicago, where it has been raining for seemingly 36 hours. I have spotty internet coverage here, so I will not waste your time with an exceedingly long introduction. I have picks I must share with you, and I’d like to make sure you get them before I float away into the sea and disappear forever.
I hope your weekend was good, and I hope you enjoy these stories.
- Make sure you enjoy the World Series, because it looks like there’s a strike coming.
- Jets QB Zach Wilson is out two to four weeks.
- One simple tweak would improve college football’s overtime format immensely.
OK, let’s make some money to help build a new underwater society.
All times Eastern, and all odds via Caesars Sportsbook
🔥 The Hot Ticket
Saints at Seahawks, 8:15 p.m. | TV: ESPN
The Pick: Seahawks +4 (-110): OK, so I can already hear you pulling back from your screen yelling, “I don’t want to bet on Geno Smith!” I get it, but Smith has played somewhat better than you realize. Since replacing the injured Russell Wilson, Smith has completed over 67% of his passes for 340 yards. Sure, he’s only averaging 6.9 yards per attempt, but he’s doing a good job of being a game manager and not making stupid mistakes.
Besides, you shouldn’t think of this as betting on Geno Smith. You should think of it as betting against Jameis Winston as a road favorite. Jameis Winston makes a lot of stupid mistakes! While Sean Payton has helped him clean some things up, Winston is still completing only 60.3% of his passes and has an interception rate over 2.6%, which is higher than the league average. He’s also been much worse on the road.
In two home games, Winston has a passer rating of 138, a completion rate of 72.1% and six touchdowns to … zero interceptions. In three road starts, his rating drops to 86.4, his completion rate plummets to 53.4% and he has six touchdowns to three interceptions. He’s also been sacked nine times on the road, compared to none at home.
Finally, we have to consider the weather. It’s not just raining in Chicago! While it’s not as likely to be as bad as it was in San Francisco Sunday night, the forecast in Seattle calls for rain and a lot of wind. Which team do you think will be more impacted by that? The one from Seattle that spends 99% of its life in rain and wind or the team that usually plays in a dome? If you want to bet on Jameis Winston on a wet, windy night on the road, more power to you. I’ll be on the other side.
Key Trend: Seattle is 13-5 ATS in its last 18 as an underdog.
Here’s what SportsLine is saying about the game: SportsLine’s Larry Hartstein is 25-9 in his last 34 NFL ATS picks and has a play on tonight’s Monday Night Football matchup.
💰 The Picks
🏀 NBA
Celtics at Hornets, 7 p.m. | TV: NBA.TV
The Pick: Celtics (-110) — The Celtics won’t have Jaylen Brown tonight, and I think that’s skewing the spread on this game just a little too much. After all, the Hornets will be without Terry Rozier, and, while he’s not Jaylen Brown, Rozier’s an important part of Charlotte’s rotation. Also, in an Eastern Conference with plenty of contenders, I think the Hornets have been a bit lost in the shuffle. This is an ascending team.
However, that doesn’t mean I’m ready to buy them against the Celtics just yet. The Hornets are 3-0 to start the season and are playing very well, but, even if I’m higher on them than most, I don’t think this roster is built to sustain this level of play. I suspect we’ll see both teams regress to the mean tonight because Boston isn’t as bad as it has looked so far. Through three games, the Celtics rank 24th in the league in true shooting percentage, 23rd in effective FG% and 25th in offensive rating. I don’t think this is an elite Boston offense, but it’s not nearly as bad as it has looked.
Key Trend: The Celtics have covered 19 of the last 26 meetings.
Blazers at Clippers, 10:30 p.m. | TV: NBA TV
The Pick: Under 230.5 (-110) — This is another instance where I think early results are skewing the numbers a bit too much. Neither of these teams has been good defensively to begin the year, as Portland is 19th in defensive rating while the Clippers are 28th. Also, while Portland has the highest offensive rating in the league right now (122.6 points per 100 possession), that’s way above league average, so unless you think the Blazers can continue shooting 51.3% from the field, it’s likely to come down.
As for the Clippers defense, it’s a concern, but it’s also to be expected without Kawhi Leonard. Plus, we need to consider that the Clippers have opened the season with two challenging games against Golden State and Memphis. Damian Lillard isn’t any easier a defensive assignment than Steph Curry or Ja Morant, but there’s still wiggle room below this total.
Key Trend: The over has hit in four straight between these two teams, so the under is due?
🔒 SportsLine Pick of the Day: The Projection Model’s favorite NBA play of the night is in the game between the Toronto Raptors and Chicago Bulls.
🏈 Monday Night Football Same Game Parlay
A three-leg parlay paying +360 to further whet your appetite.
- Seahawks +14.5 (-500)
- Jameis Winston Under 201.5 passing yards (-120)
- Tyler Lockett Over 46.5 receiving yards (-115)
