The Astros are going to stay nearly unbeatable at home, plus other best bets for Tuesday

What’s going on everyone? It’s Chris Bengel back with you and ready to lead us to the promised gambling land.

I’ve said this once before, but I’m going to repeat it: large parlays are the devil. Two or three legs are fine if there’s a few games that you really like, but that’s where it needs to stop. I made the mistake of trusting Clemson with an alternate spread of +7.5 against Pittsburgh over the weekend as part of a five-leg parlay. The payout would’ve been huge and it turned out that the Clemson leg was the only one on the parlay that didn’t hit.

Don’t get into the habit of adding extra games just to boost the odds on a parlay. You never know what can happen, especially if points spreads are involved.

With the World Series getting underway on Tuesday, we have a phenomenal night of sports on tap. Let’s get to the picks!

All times Eastern, and all odds via Caesars Sportsbook

🔥 The Hot Ticket

⚾ Braves vs. Astros, 7:30 p.m. | TV: FOX

The Pick: Astros (-135): This is the one that you don’t need to overthink. While I do believe this year’s World Series will be evenly matched, the Astros have been nearly unstoppable at home during the 2021 postseason. Houston has only lost at home on one occasion, which came in Game 2 of the American League Championship Series against the Red Sox.

Astros starter Framber Valdez had a rocky start to the postseason, but really settled in during his last start against the Red Sox in Game 5 of the ALCS. Valdez tossed eight strong innings and surrendered just one run on three hits while striking out five batters. In addition, Valdez has received tremendous run support in each of his three postseason starts. The Astros have scored a grand total of 23 runs and have come away victorious in all three of those contests. 

It’s also hard to go against the Astros’ very dangerous lineup. They scored at least five runs in five of the six ALCS games against the Red Sox. While the Braves can’t be counted out, the Astros have been easy money at home throughout the playoffs and I don’t see that changing.

Key Trend: The Astros are 6-1 in their last seven playoff home games

💰 The Picks

🏀 Warriors at Thunder, 8 p.m. | TV: NBA.TV

The Pick: Warriors -9 (-110) — The Warriors have looked like one of the more dominant teams that the NBA has to offer so far this season. Over the team’s first three games, the Warriors have taken down the likes of the Clippers and Lakers. They look like a juggernaut once again. Stephen Curry has been carrying the load as he normally does to the tune of 31 points-per-game and a 38.9 percent shooting clip from three. 

The Thunder haven’t exactly enjoyed the same success as their Western Conference counterparts. Oklahoma City has lost each of their first three games by at least 12 points and one of those came against the lowly Rockets, who figure to be one of the worst teams in the league during the 2021-22 season. Yes, Shai-Gilgeous Alexander has carried the offense, but there hasn’t been much else to speak of. When you only have two scorers that are averaging double figures and one of them is journeyman forward Mike Muscala, you’re in trouble.

I was honestly surprised that this spread wasn’t in the double digits, so you’re getting a great number here. Even if the Warriors are up big and resting their starters in the fourth quarter, the team’s bench should be able to hold off the Thunder with ease in this one.

Key Trend: The Warriors are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games as a favorite

🏒 Golden Knights vs. Avalanche, 8 p.m. | TV: ESPN

The Pick: Avalanche (-175) — This one is pretty simple. The Golden Knights are struggling to start off the season with only a win over the expansion Kraken thus far. Vegas is without arguably their top two forwards in Max Pacioretty and Mark Stone, who both figure to be out for an extended period of time. Due to the loss of their top two playmakers, the Golden Knights are averaging just two goals-per-game through five games and are coming off of a shutout loss to the Islanders.

Meanwhile, the Avalanche have one of the most dynamic offenses in the league when they’re at full strength. Gabriel Landeskog and Nathan MacKinnon are both back in the lineup and it showed in the Avalanche’s most recent win against the defending Stanley Cup champion Lightning. Landeskog and MacKinnon combined to record five points with each player scoring a goal. Colorado’s offense shouldn’t have to do a ton to take down Vegas and I think this one makes for some easy money.

Key Trend: The Avalanche are 39-16 in their last 55 home games