It’s crunch time in the FCS as we enter Week 9. Teams are starting to jockey for at-large bids to the NCAA Division I Playoffs, while some are battling for conference titles. This week has it all.
A few teams like Northern Iowa, South Dakota State, Rhode Island and South Dakota find themselves in must-win situations. Because of the depth of quality teams with one or two losses — many of them in the Big Sky Conference — we could see a situation in which some really good squads get squeezed out of the playoff picture altogether.
You also have a unique situation bubbling in the SWAC, where Jackson State, Florida A&M and Prairie View A&M continue to win impressively. The latter two are hoping to make a strong enough case to snag a potential at-large bid. It’s a long shot, but it makes this a high-stakes week in the FCS.
Here’s how the FCS Power Poll looks heading into Week 9 …
1. Sam Houston (6-0): Quarterback Eric Schmid had a better performance in a 42-7 win over Jacksonville State. This offense is still one of the most dangerous in the subdivision with a stout defense to match.
2. Montana State (7-1): The Bobcats beat you up front on both sides of the line of scrimmage. If no one will talk up Montana State, I will. The Bobcats are a legit contender.
3. Villanova (6-1): It’s been a really impressive season for the Wildcats. They look as good as the 2009 team, and that group won a national championship.
4. North Dakota State (7-0): You are what your record says you are, and the Bison are undefeated. No matter how it looks at times, no opponent has been able to knock them off.
5. Southern Illinois (6-1): Football’s Kid Icarus, the Salukis have won their last three games by five points combined. They can’t keep living like that, right?
6. James Madison (6-1): The Dukes are going to line up and engage in a physical football game with you each week. Opponents should be wary.
7. Eastern Washington (7-1): The Eagles were upset 35-34 by Weber State. What made it such a shock was how well the Eagles were playing up until last week. For their sake, last week’s loss was hopefully just an aberration.
8. Southeastern Louisiana (6-1): In a rare in-season rematch game, the Lions take on McNeese State. When these two met a month ago, the Lions led 31-14 before sliding by the Cowboys 38-35. They will be on upset alert for sure this weekend.
9. UT-Martin (6-1): The Skyhawks play Austin Peay in an underrated matchup this week. It’s a huge opportunity for their defense to make a statement.
10. UC-Davis (7-1): The Aggies are a solid team and one of four Big Sky Conference teams in the Top 10.
11. Montana (5-2): Missoula’s finest got back on the winning track last week after knocking off Idaho 34-14. The Griz hope they can get on a nice run before meeting up with Montana State at the end of the regular season in the Brawl of the Wild.
12. Jackson State (6-1): Hear me loud and clear when I say no one wants to face this Tigers defense. Jackson State is on fire and true freshman QB Shedeur Sanders seems like a lock to win the Jerry Rice Award, given to the top freshman in the FCS.
13. South Dakota State (5-2): Losers of two out of their last three games, the Jackrabbits better catch their second wind or they could continue to stumble down the stretch.
14. East Tennessee State (7-1): Running back Quay Holmes is my favorite back to watch in the FCS. He runs with power, burst, vision and balance. He’s a big reason why the Bucs are going to be a problem in the postseason.
15. Kennesaw State (6-1): The Owls are peaking right now. Their defense is lights out and their offense is a consistently tough matchup for any opponent.
16. Princeton (6-0): The Tigers found a way to win last week in five overtimes against undefeated Harvard. No matter how they got it done, a win is a win.
17. Incarnate Word (5-2): UIW got caught slipping in a 28-20 loss to McNeese State in their rematch game. Earlier in the season, the Cardinals beat the Cowboys 31-0.
18. Sacramento State (5-2): There is a log jam of excellent teams in the Big Sky, and it’s time to start taking the Hornets seriously. QB Jake Dunniway has Sacramento State on a four-game winning streak.
19. VMI (5-2): Wide receiver Jakob Herres is a Sunday player and gives the Keydets a legitimate threat in the passing game. He is capable of winning anywhere on the field.
20. South Dakota (5-3): After beating Northern Iowa, the Coyotes dropped a 20-14 head-scratcher to Illinois State. That loss puts them in a bit of a bind for an at-large bid if they can’t win two out of their last three games.
21. Eastern Kentucky (5-2): The Colonels are 2-0 in the AQ7 and have a good opportunity to take the makeshift conference title, as they still have Sam Houston left on the schedule.
22. Rhode Island (5-2): The Rams have dropped two in a row and will more than likely have to run the table to strengthen their case for an at-large bid.
23. Prairie View A&M (6-1): The Panthers got a big win at Southern and will now have two weeks to prepare for Alabama State on Nov. 6.
24. Northern Iowa (4-3): It’s hard to figure out this Panthers team, but what I do know is that they’ve knocked off Sacramento State and South Dakota State. A win this week against Southern Illinois could rubber stamp their ticket to at least an at-large bid come playoff selection time.
25. Harvard (5-1): The Crimson had that game won last weekend against Princeton — both figuratively and literally, according to the Ivy League office. But, it counts as a loss and now they have to avoid a letdown as they take on 5-1 Dartmouth.
Just Missed the Cut: Fordham, Dartmouth, Norfolk State, Mercer, Holy Cross & William & Mary
The Czar’s Game of the Week
Davidson at Morehead State: It’s been a highly competitive season in the Pioneer League. As we enter Week 9, Davidson and Morehead State have a matchup with first place on the line. Neither team is great defensively, and both offenses are high-octane units that have set up prime real estate in opposing end zones. However, if there is one defense I can count on to make a few more stops, it would be the Wildcats. The point total is set at 75 and, yeah, we’re going over. In the end, Davidson will be left standing atop the Pioneer League. Pick: Davidson 42, Morehead State 38
The Czar’s Upset Pick of the Week
Southern Illinois at Northern Iowa: Someone must have summoned the prayers of 1,000 grandmothers to Carbondale. The Salukis have been finding ways to win in the most dramatic fashion. Credit goes to their offense to score when needed and their defense for either getting a key stop or crucial turnover at the right time. But, for whatever reason, Northern Iowa seems to play its best depending on the opponent. This is a huge game that could easily be a knockout blow to their playoff hopes. Expect to see the best of Northern Iowa, in what should be another thriller in the Missouri Valley Football Conference. Pick: Northern Iowa 24, Southern Illinois 21
The Czar’s SportsLine Lock of the Week
Holy Cross at Lehigh: This is an unprecedented down year for the Mountain Hawks as they’ve struggled to get out of their own way. They face a surging Holy Cross team that’s looking to keep pace with Fordham in the Patriot League. Will that sense of urgency help Lehigh cover? You can find my pick for that game, along with all my Week 9 picks, on Sportsline.
