So far so good. Another strong week, brings us to 12-5 on the season. No terrible weeks yet. Not trying to overextend anything. Slow and steady and calculated wins the race.
I’m not going too crazy this week, either. The bye is now firmly in play. We are seeing some massive point differentials in these games and some wild trends. More huge spreads. More teams that look as if they are in for a long, long season.
But these three stand out for me:
Lions +3.5 vs. Eagles
Latest Odds: Detroit Lions +3.5
Full disclosure — I love this as a moneyline play. The Lions are overdue for a win, they play with passion and emotion and they have endured several improbable losses at home. Dan Campbell’s offensive staff has some issues but his program looks better than Nick Sirianni’s and it will show on Sunday.
The Lions can run the ball and control the game with Deandre Swift. They can get some pass rush with four. That’s all they will need against an Eagles team that has almost nothing going for it right now. Losing Miles Sanders is crushing and Philly’s defense is leaking all over the place. My fear betting against the Eagles is that they will backdoor cover most weeks; but here I am getting points. And I don’t even think I will need them.
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Rams -14 at Texans
Latest Odds: Houston Texans +14.5
Yeah, it’s a huge number but the Texans are beyond cooked. Every veteran who hasn’t been dealt wishes he was. They have an overwhelmed QB and just gave their lead back away. Even when they play well for a while — like they did with a hot start last week — a collapse surely follows.
They aren’t playing with the same zeal they were to start the season. Not close. They have massive issues on both sides of the ball and no answers for Cooper Kupp. Mathew Stafford will pad his MVP credentials and Aaron Donald is good for three sacks and this will end up as lopsided as the Texans’ loss was last to Arizona, no matter how it starts.
Colts -1.5 vs. Titans
Latest Odds: Indianapolis Colts -2.5
The Titans have run some gauntlet. Wild win over Buffalo in a back-and-forth and grueling affair. Absolutely crushed the Chiefs from the first snap last week in a blowout win. Riding high.
But the schedule has been a bear and they are due for regression and this is a Colts team that can get as physical as they can. Indy can dictate on the ground and Carson Wentz is playing good ball and the Colts understand the challenge of facing Derrick Henry. The Colts are turning their season around and are better than their record and they got Quenton Nelson back and Kwity Paye is turning into a thing and DeForest Buckner is playing great ball and this Titans O-line has been ravaged at times this year.
Colts know they need a win here to make a push for the division title. And they’ll get it by a field goal or more.
