The Kansas City Chiefs and New York Giants will put a bow on Week 8 in the NFL when these two clubs square up during “Monday Night Football.” This has been a very uncharacteristic start to the season for the Chiefs, who enter this game under .500 at 3-4 and are on the outside looking in on the playoffs. They are also looking to bounce back from a Week 7 loss to Tennessee where Patrick Mahomes and the offense were only able to put up three points.
Meanwhile, New York is coming off a win against Carolina, but Joe Judge’s team has continued to battle with injuries to begin the year. Two key offensive players have already been ruled out in this game in Saquon Barkley (ankle) and Kenny Golladay (knee), so Daniel Jones will need some folks to step up in their absence to improve to 3-5.
In this space, we’ll specifically be looking at the different betting angles that this game has to offer. Along with the spread and total, we’ll also take a look at a number of player props and hand in our picks for how we see this prime-time matchup unfolding.
All NFL odds via Caesars Sportsbook.
How to watch
Date: Monday, Nov. 1 | Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
Location: Arrowhead Stadium (Kansas City, Missouri)
TV: ESPN | Stream: fuboTV (try for free)
Follow: CBS Sports App
Odds: Chiefs -10, O/U 52
Line movement
Latest Odds: Kansas City Chiefs -10
This spread originally opened with the Chiefs nearly sitting as a two-touchdown favorite at -13.5, but that advantage has dwindled following their loss to Tennessee. This number dipped as low as Chiefs -9.5 but sits at -10 on the eve of this head-to-head.
The pick: Giants +10. Kansas City hasn’t been the team we’ve come to know over the last few seasons and has struggled mightily on the defensive side of the ball. Entering Week 8, the Chiefs are allowing 6.6 yards per play, which is the highest mark in the NFL. I do expect Mahomes and the offense to bounce back after putting up just three points last week, but this defense leaves the back door wide open. The Chiefs are also 2-5 ATS this season, which is tied for second-lowest in all the entire NFL.
Key trend: Giants are 20-6 ATS in their last 26 road games.
Over/Under total
Similar to the spread, the total for this game has also decreased as the week has gone on. It opened at 54 but quickly dipped down to 52 by the end of the day on Sunday and has held at that number since.
The pick: Under 52. This number does feel a little high when considering that New York will be down multiple high-profile weapons on offense and the fact that Kansas City continues to look lost from top to bottom. On top of the Chiefs managing just three points last week, turnovers continue to be a problem for them as they gave the ball away three times as well. While the Giants do have a strong matchup going against a poor Chiefs defense, their offense hasn’t exactly blown clubs away and ranks 27th in the NFL in DVOA.
Key trend: Under is 4-0 in the Chiefs last four Monday games.
Patrick Mahomes props
- Passing touchdowns: 2.5 (Over +105, Under -135)
- Passing yards: 303.5 (Over -115, Under -115)
- Rushing yards: 19.5 (Over -120, Under -110)
- Passing attempts: 37.5 (Over -125, Under -105)
- Longest pass completion: 37.5 (Over -115, Under -115)
- Completions: 26.5 (Over -130, Under +100)
- Interceptions: 0.5 (Over +130, Under -160)
Mahomes has gone over this rushing yards prop in five straight games heading into Monday night and seems to be the most solid bet in this game. The Under on his 303.5 passing yards prop at -115 is also intriguing as the Giants are allowing 243.1 passing yards per game this season. Mahomes has also only topped 300 yards passing three times this season entering Week 8.
Daniel Jones props
- Passing touchdowns: 1.5 (Over +115, Under -145)
- Passing yards: 246.5 (Over -115, Under -115)
- Rushing yards: 21.5 (Over -110, Under -120)
The skill position group around Jones has been banged up for quite a while, but it looks like he may be getting back Kadarius Toney (questionable, ankle) and Sterling Shepard (questionable, hamstring) for this game after both practiced on a limited basis for the bulk of the week. With that in mind, Jones should be able to go over his passing yards prop at -115. After all, the Chiefs are allowing 275.7 passing yards per game this season. Jones has also gone over this rushing yards prop in five of his seven games played this season.
Player props to consider
Mecole Hardman total receptions: Over 3.5 (-120). Hardman has played in roughly 65% of the offensive snaps over the last three weeks and has seen a solid target share over that stretch (22 total targets). He’s also caught at least four passes over the previous three games. As long as he keeps on that trajectory, he’ll have a good chance to go over.
Travis Kelce total receiving yards: Over 78.5 (-115). Kelce has received double-digit targets in four of his last five games and the Giants are allowing 9.2 yards per reception to opposing tight ends this season. If Kelce continues to be the go-to weapon for Mahomes, he’ll jump past this mark.
