The final game of Week 8 pits the Kansas City Chiefs against the New York Giants on “Monday Night Football.” The Chiefs are coming off the most disappointing game of their disappointing season, having been blown out by the Tennessee Titans last week. The Giants, meanwhile, are coming off only their second win of the year, having defeated the Carolina Panthers in Week 7.
Kansas City will attempt to even its record at 4-4 on Monday night, while the Giants will attempt to inch their way closer to .500 themselves. Can Patrick Mahomes and Co. get back in the win column, or will Daniel Jones lead his team to an upset? We’ll find out Monday night. But first, here’s how you can watch the game.
How to watch
Date: Monday, Nov. 1 | Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
Location: Arrowhead Stadium (Kansas City, Missouri)
TV: ESPN | Stream: fuboTV (click here)
Follow: CBS Sports App
Odds: Chiefs -10, O/U 52
When the Giants have the ball
New York’s offense has been ravaged by injuries for much of the season. Saquon Barkley and Kenny Golladay will each miss their third consecutive game here, while Andrew Thomas remains on injured reserve. Sterling Shepard, Darius Slayton, and Evan Engram have each previously missed time before returning to the lineup. Kadarius Toney could come back from the ankle injury he aggravated back in Week 6, but he got in only a limited practice on Friday and is listed as questionable for the contest.
Nevertheless, the Giants can actually move the ball a little bit. (Their 5.5 yards per play mark is right around league average.) Daniel Jones was horrendous against the Rams in Week 6 with nearly all of his wide receivers out due to injury, but has otherwise been slightly below average. That counts as an improvement on “dreadful,” which he was for much of last season.
Particularly if Toney can suit up, Jones has some weapons who can challenge Kansas City’s defensive backs. He has tended to lock in mostly on Toney and Shepard if they’re in the lineup, and they’ve produced at a high level when peppered with targets.
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Toney caught 16 of 22 passes for 267 yards in Weeks 4 and 5 once he finally got playing them, then caught three passes on four snaps in Week 6 before exiting due to injury. He’s electric with the ball in his hands, and his route-running has been better than expected. Shepard has played three full games this year, and has receiving lines of 7-113-1, 9-94-0, and 10-76-0. (He was injured after just 24 snaps in Week 3.)
The Chiefs have hemorrhaged yards through the air so far this season. They rank 30th in net yards per attempt and 31st in pass defense DVOA, with equal struggles against short (24th) and deep (28th) throws. Their linebackers have been extremely vulnerable in coverage, which could leave some openings for dump-offs to Devontae Booker out of the backfield.
It would be easier to envision the Chiefs stopping the Giants offense if they could get any pressure on opposing quarterbacks, but that has been a consistent struggle for them. Only one of seven passers to face Kansas City (Jalen Hurts) has been under pressure on more than 29 percent of his dropbacks, according to TruMedia. Considering the league average is over 32%, that is, uh, not great. Jones typically does not respond well to pressure, and even though his offensive line is not in great shape, it’s tough to count on the Chiefs being able to get after him all that much.
Instead, it seems likely that New York will actually be able to move the ball — though it may end up stalling in or around the red zone, given the team’s struggles in that area. The Giants rank dead last in the percentage of their red-zone drives that have turned into touchdowns. Settling for field goals is not a recipe for beating the Chiefs, but the Giants are one of the most conservative teams in the league when it comes to that type of decision-making, so we should expect to see several kicks go up in the air.
When the Chiefs have the ball
OK, so let’s talk about what happened to the Chiefs last week against Tennessee.
They finished with a season-low 334 total yards, and that number is not at all representative of how well they played for most of the game. Their three points were the fewest in any game started by Mahomes, with the previous low having been 13. It was just the fourth time in 53 career starts that Mahomes has not thrown a touchdown pass. The 62.3 passer rating he registered was the lowest of his career, and his 4.6 adjusted yards per attempt were the second-lowest behind only his Week 5 game against the Bills.
Should we expect anything like that from Kansas City in the future? Considering the Chiefs had been leading the NFL in points per drive despite turning the ball over on more than 20% of their possessions heading into that game against the Titans, I would say we probably should not.
They should seemingly get right back on track on Monday night; because as bad as Kansas City’s defense has been, the Giants’ defense might actually be a bit more disappointing. That’s because this was actually expected to be a good unit this season. Instead, the Giants ranked 20th in yards and 23rd in points allowed, and a below-expectation 19th in Football Outsiders’ defensive DVOA heading into Week 8.
The Giants have specifically been vulnerable to passes to tight ends (18th in DVOA) and the slot (26th), indicating the potential for big games from Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill on Monday night. Kelce has been banged up over the last several weeks and does not appear to be generating as much separation as we’ve come to expect from him, but the Giants losing Jabrill Peppers for the season could be especially damaging in their efforts to cover him over the middle.
Hill has had two monster games this season (11-197-1 against the Browns in Week 1 and 11-186-3 against the Eagles in Week 4) but most other teams have been able to take away his big games by playing a heavy dose of two-high coverages designed to take away the Chiefs’ trademark deep throws. Hill was held to 3-14-0, 5-56-0, 7-63-0, 9-76-1, 6-49-0 in his other five games. New York’s top corners have been pretty beatable in coverage this season, but it would not be surprising if Giants defensive coordinator Patrick Graham played some more Cover-2 and encouraged Mahomes to repeatedly check down throughout the game.
Of course, the best way to disrupt Kansas City’s offense is with the pass rush. The Chiefs’ revamped offensive line has been struggling of late, allowing opponents to repeatedly get pressure on Mahomes, and quite quickly. New York’s pressure rate is slightly below average so far this season, but Leonard Williams and Dexter Lawrence are plenty capable of pushing the pocket up the middle. If they have success in that department, perhaps the Chiefs will be thrown off their game once again.
Latest Odds: Kansas City Chiefs -10.5
Prediction: Chiefs 33, Giants 27
