SEC college football picks, odds in Week 10: Auburn over Texas A&M, LSU covers in Alabama showdown

No. 13 Auburn will visit No. 14 Texas A&M this weekend in a massive SEC West showdown that will be featured as the SEC on CBS Game of the Week. The Tigers are tied atop the SEC West standings, and a win over the Aggies would be the final big hurdle toward an Iron Bowl showdown with Alabama that could decide the division.

Elsewhere, No. 2 Alabama will look to stay hot against an LSU team that has had more ups and downs this year than mile-long roller coaster. With that said, it’s still a heated rivalry, and the Tigers would love nothing more than to wreck Alabama’s College Football Playoff chances by handing the Tide their second loss of the season. 

Let’s now take a spin around the conference and makes picks straight up and against the spread for the SEC games in Week 10. 

Appetizer: Watch out for LSU’s passing game

The LSU offense has been decidedly one-dimensional outside of the Florida game when Tyrion Davis-Price ran for 593 miles. Despite that, it’s had success through the air. Quarterback Max Johnson was averaging 8.5 yards per attempt and tossed 15 of his 20 touchdown passes in September, but things tailed off in October — especially when the Tigers lost star wide receiver Kayshon Boutte for the season on Oct. 9 vs. Kentucky.

Johnson has averaged just 6.2 yards per attempt over the last two games and managed just 146 against the porous Ole Miss defense his last time out. That’s going to have to change if LSU is going to have a chance this weekend against an Alabama defense that gave up 10.8 yards per attempt and three touchdowns against Tennessee two weeks ago.

Crimson Tide coach Nick Saban has had two weeks to fix his pass defense, so expect Johnson to be challenged in a variety of ways on Saturday night.

Main course: What to make of Zach Calzada

The backup-turned-starting quarterback of the Aggies became the talk of the college football world when he threw for 285 yards and three touchdowns on 21-of-31 passing (67.7%). But that was, by far, his best passing performance. He completed just 52% of his passes and averaged 5.9 yards per attempt vs. Missouri, 50% of his passes and 7.8 yards per attempt against South Carolina and is last in the conference among qualified quarterbacks at 6.6 yards per attempt for the season.

Auburn is allowing just 3.29 yards per rush this season, and it’ll likely slow down Isaiah Spiller and Co. enough to force Calzada into situations where he has to win with his arm. Can he do that? Aggies coach Jimbo Fisher knows just how good that secondary is.

“Outside, [Roger] McCreary is a great corner on the edge,” he said. “Smoke Monday, great there. [Zion] Puckett’s a great player. [Nehemiah] Pritchard is a great player.

This game will be on Calzada. If he completes 60% of his passes, the Aggies will win going away. If not, things will get sketchy in Aggieland. 

Dessert: It doesn’t matter who is Georgia’s quarterback

Stetson Bennett IV didn’t play well against Florida last week, but it’s not like he had to. Georgia basically throttled down to first gear in the second half and went on the Kirby Smart death march in the fourth quarter. Bennett is still averaging 11.5 yards per attempt and has developed a critical chemistry with multiple receiving targets, including star tight end Brock Bowers. He also brings the running element to his game in a way that JT Daniels can’t.

Daniels, on the other hand, has the bigger arm, can make all of the throws and is more likely to have a long-term NFL career. 

Here’s the thing, though. Georgia’s stellar defense re-defines the definition of the word “shootout”. If it falters, it’s not going to be like Bennett or Daniels are going to have to put up 45 points to win. It’ll be more like a high-20s or low-30s affair, and both of those guys can manage that. Plus, Smart can just make a change if his starter has an off day. It really isn’t that big of a deal.

Picks

Straight up: 64-14 | Against the spread: 34-33

Missouri at No. 1 Georgia

Missouri’s rush defense is flat out atrocious and Georgia’s rushing attack led by Zamir White and James Cook is brutal, punishing and versatile. With that said, 38 points is just an insane spread considering that Georgia will likely run the ball 50 times and drain the clock. Give me the Tigers to cover but the Bulldogs to cruise to an easy win. Pick: Missouri (+38)

Liberty at No. 16 Ole Miss

This game was dubbed the “Hugh Freeze Bowl” when it was announced that Freeze, the former Ole Miss coach, will return to his old stomping grounds for the first time since losing the job before the 2017 season. Now that it’s here, nobody cares. Flames quarterback Malik Willis hasn’t lived up to unrealistic expectations while Freeze’s squad has fallen out of the national spotlight. There’s a reason for that. Ole Miss quarterback Matt Corral and the receiving corps will make this a shootout and Willis won’t be able to keep up. Pick: Ole Miss (-9.5)

No. 13 Auburn at No. 14 Texas A&M

Tigers quarterback Bo Nix has found a nice balance between being a fundamentally sound passer and the backyard wild card since he got benched vs. Georgia State. That will be too tough for the Texas A&M defense to deal with. Nix, combined with a newfound dedication to the running game, will be too much for the Aggies and Calzada. Take the points, but you won’t need them because Auburn will win straight up. Pick: Auburn (+4.5)

No. 17 Mississippi State at Arkansas

Bulldogs quarterback Will Rogers has quietly emerged as one of the conference’s best passers, and that won’t change this week against a Razorbacks defense that has allowed conference foes to complete 66% of their passes and average 8.5 yards per attempt. Rogers will have a field day through the air — which has become quite common these days — and lead Mike Leach’s team to the minor upset. Pick: Mississippi State (+5.5)

LSU at No. 2 Alabama

The Crimson Tide will win with ease, but I’ll grab those four touchdowns and take the Tigers to cover. LSU quarterback Max Johnson will hit two or three big plays through the air to at least get the Tigers in the high teens or lower 20s. At that point, it’ll be all about how many mistakes Bryce Young makes and when coach Nick Saban decides to take his foot off of the gas. Saban will want to get out of this as quickly as possible and won’t cover the number. Pick: LSU (+28.5)

Tennessee at No. 18 Kentucky

The Wildcats were demoralized by Mississippi State last week when they were officially eliminated from the SEC East race. That disappointment will continue this week when they are upset by a Tennessee team that has quickly become one of the more entertaining teams in the country. Quarterback Hendon Hooker will put up 350 total yards and the Wildcats offense won’t be able to keep up. Pick: Tennessee (+1)

Florida at South Carolina

The Gators are an absolute mess, but not enough of a mess to be stunned by the Gamecocks. With that said, you’d have to be out of your mind to lay 18 points with a Gators team that not only has a mess at quarterback, but has a head coach who’s teetering on the brink of landing on the hot seat. Florida might not break 20 points, which should make a Gamecocks cover stress-free. Pick: South Carolina (+18)

Which college football picks can you make with confidence in Week 10, and which Top 25 team will get stunned? Visit SportsLine to see which teams will win and cover the spread — all from a proven computer model that has returned almost $3,700 in profit over the past five-plus seasons — and find out.