The first round of the College Football Playoff rankings are out and, finally, teams know where they stand in the eyes of the selection committee. While No. 1 Georgia has a clear path to the top of the field, as many as 12 teams can still play their way in.
There is only one top-25 matchup on the schedule in Week 10 and none between top-10 teams. At the same time, this sport thrives on low expectations; more than 30 ranked teams have been upset by unranked opponents thus far. Furthermore, a handful of games will give us “common opponent” context that will play a role when the season comes to a close.
Here are the games to follow that will affect the playoff race following the first round of rankings.
No. 6 Cincinnati vs. Tulsa
Whether you think Cincinnati’s ranking is fair or not (it’s not), all it has to do is dominate the rest of the schedule. Luckily, Tulsa is a rare common opponent. The Golden Hurricane played against both No. 5 Ohio State and No. 11 Oklahoma State. Both of those games were too close for comfort for the favorites, which means Cincinnati can make a legitimate statement to the committee by coming out strong and putting together a complete performance.
No. 3 Michigan State at Purdue
Is there a team in college football that enjoys wreaking havoc more than the Purdue Boilermakers? Michigan State is lucky that it landed at No. 3 and not No. 2, because Purdue has pulled twice as many upsets over No. 2 teams as an unranked squad as any team in college football history. The Spartans will be favored in this game — and taking care of business is enough, no style points are needed in the Big Ten — but Michigan State has to avoid a letdown after one of the biggest wins in program history.
No. 13 Auburn at No. 14 Texas A&M
The chances of either of these teams going to the playoff are slim, but this game could have a significant impact on how the SEC shakes out. If Auburn wins, it could help set up a top-10 Iron Bowl against Alabama to add another potential résumé boost. If Texas A&M wins, it could make Alabama’s lone loss look just a little bit better. Whichever team wins this game will be in a great spot to make the New Year’s Six, too.
No. 5 Ohio State at Nebraska
Being a Cornhuskers fan has been absolutely miserable. Nebraska is 1-6 against Power Five opponents, but the losses have been close. Scott Frost’s team lost to No. 8 Oklahoma, No. 3 Michigan State and No. 7 Michigan by a combined 13 points. The Huskers have found ways to muck up games, but it will be interesting to see if their underrated defense lands some shots early against Ohio State’s offense.
No. 9 Wake Forest at North Carolina
With a few opportunities left on the schedule to earn résumé points, Wake Forest travels to North Carolina for a matchup with potential first-round quarterback Sam Howell on the other sideline. UNC’s defense has been shaky, which opens the door for QB Sam Hartman to have another big game. But, perhaps more importantly, it’s an opportunity for the Demon Deacon’s defense to earn some style points of their own.
More Week 10 games to watch
- No. 2 Alabama vs. LSU: It’s been a while since this game hasn’t had legitimate national championship implications, but don’t bet against outgoing LSU coach Ed Orgeron, who could pull out all the stops to try and end his tenure with a sensational win.
- No. 4 Oregon at Washington: Many expected this to be the premier matchup in the Pac-12, but the Huskies didn’t keep up their end of the bargain thanks to some truly confounding offensive issues. Still, they’ve held every opponent since Michigan to fewer than 30 points, so it should be a good test for the Ducks offense.
- No. 11 Oklahoma State at West Virginia: Morgantown isn’t nearly as much fun for opponents once the weather changes, so a brisk afternoon in Appalachia will test whether the Cowboys’ success is legitimate or the product of lighter competition.
- No. 1 Georgia vs. Missouri: Do you remember the scene from “Game of Thrones” when Jon Snow pulls his sword as the entire opposing army converges on him on horseback? That’s what this game will look like, but with Mizzou running back Tyler Badie against one of the best defenses in the history of football.
