The New York Jets and Indianapolis Colts will get us started in Week 9 as these two AFC squares are set to go head to head during “Thursday Night Football” from Lucas Oil Stadium. The Jets come into this matchup after a shocking upset win over the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 8 where backup quarterback Mike White put together a record-setting performance in his first career start, totaling 405 yards through the air to go along with three touchdowns and two interceptions. Meanwhile, the Colts have been hot over the last month but did stumble against the Titans on Sunday, falling to 3-5 on the season.
In this space, we’ll specifically be looking at the different betting angles that this game has to offer. Along with the spread and total, we’ll also take a look at a number of player props and hand in our picks for how we see this prime-time matchup unfolding.
All NFL odds via Caesars Sportsbook.
How to watch
Date: Thursday, Nov. 4 | Time: 8:20 p.m. ET
Location: Lucas Oil Stadium (Indianapolis)
TV: Fox | Stream: fuboTV (try for free)
Follow: CBS Sports App
Odds: Colts -10.5, O/U 45.5
Line movement
Latest Odds: Indianapolis Colts -10.5
Indianapolis opened at as a 14-point favorite against New York, but that number quickly dropped to 10.5 after Sunday once the Colts fell to the Titans and Jets were able to upset the Bengals. While that number did take a dip initially, it has held firm throughout the week, sitting at Colts -10.5 on the eve of this matchup.
The pick: Colts -10.5. This is a massive number to lay for a team that’s under .500 on the season. That said, I have a much easier time projecting the Colts turning things around following their Week 8 loss than White repeating his astonishing start against the Bengals, who I think were caught sleeping going against an inferior opponent in New York. Indianapolis is a far more talented team from top to bottom and I expect White to come back down to earth in this matchup, setting up a solid bounce-back opportunity for Carson Wentz and Co.
Key trend: Colts are 4-1 ATS in their last five games.
Over/Under total
This total has fluctuated a bit as the week has progressed. After opening at 44.5, this number dipped down to 44 leading into Sunday before shooting up as high as 47. It has since settled at 45.5 as of Wednesday evening.
The pick: Over 45.5. The Colts have the No. 1-ranked run defense in the NFL in DVOA, but the Jets don’t really lean on the running game much. Instead, they’ll elect for a short passing game, which should prove to be successful moving the ball down the field. Meanwhile, the Colts (20th) and Jets (27th) rank in the bottom half of the league against the pass, meaning both offenses should be able to find opportunities through the air. Yes, the Colts could look to dominate the clock with running back Jonathan Taylor if they get a lead, but he has shown he can put up points on the ground as he’s scored a touchdown in five straight games.
Key trend: Over has hit in the Colts’ last five games.
Mike White props
- Passing touchdowns: 1.5 (Over +115, Under -145)
- Passing yards: 255.5 (Over -115, Under -115)
- Rushing yards: 4.5 (Over -110, Under -120)
- Passing attempts: 37.5 (Over +100, Under -130)
- Longest pass completion: 34.5 (Over -115, Under -115)
- Completions: 23.5 (Over +105, Under -135)
- Interceptions: 1.5 (Over +185, Under -230)
The Over on Mike White’s 23.5 completions may seem like a tall number, but there is a path to this hitting. Last week, 42% of White’s passes had 0-5 air yards with an 81 completion percentage. He’ll face a Colts defense that is allowing the fifth-highest completion percentage (73%) on throws within that same distance. A dink-and-dunk passing attack will create more passing opportunities for White to pile up the completions and get us over this number.
Carson Wentz props
- Passing touchdowns: 1.5 (Over -140, Under +110)
- Passing yards: 245.5 (Over -115, Under -115)
- Rushing yards: 9.5 (Over -120, Under -110)
- Passing attempts: 31.5 (Over +100, Under -130
- Longest pass completion: 36.5 (Over -120, Under -110)
- Completions: 21.5 (Over -110, Under -120)
- Interceptions: 0.5 (Over +140, Under -170)
Wentz has gone under this passing yards total in five of his last six games. As a double-digit home favorite, this could be a game where Wentz and the Colts have this lead in hand early and have the offense turn more to a ground attack, thus limiting his passing opportunities. After throwing two picks last week, it may also be wise to sprinkle a little piece of your allowance on the Over on Wentz’s interceptions prop, especially at +140.
Player props to consider
Michael Carter receiving yards: Over 35.5 (-130). This number is way too low for someone who has seen 23 targets over the last two games, including 14 last week against the Bengals. Over this stretch, Carter has totaled 67 and 95 receiving yards respectfully, making this a small play.
Michael Pittman receiving yards: Over 67.5 (-115). The Colts may not be passing a ton in this game if they get a lead, but when they do, Pittman will be Wentz’s go-to target, especially with T.Y. Hilton ruled out. Pittman saw 15 targets last week and has gone over this total in two-straight games leading into Thursday night.
