NFL odds, lines, picks, spreads, bets, predictions for Week 9, 2021: Model high on Saints, Steelers

Every year, NFL analysts speak about the advantage of bye weeks. Of the six teams on bye in Week 7, their collective record against the spread last Sunday came out to 2-3-1. Last weekend, the Raiders and Ravens were the only teams on bye, and they are a combined 2-6 against the spread in the last four years following the break. Perhaps the traditional approach of favoring a team coming off of a bye shouldn’t be an automatic decision when evaluating the Week 9 NFL odds.

Baltimore hosts Minnesota, which was favored by four points in the final NFL spreads on Caesars Sportsbook last week against Dallas. The Vikings lost outright at home to the Cowboys, who proved to be the better team when they won 20-14. Should you trust the Ravens (-6) or Vikings with your NFL bets? All of the Week 9 NFL lines are listed below, and SportsLine’s advanced computer model has all the NFL betting advice and predictions you need to make the best Week 9 NFL picks now.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up almost $7,800 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception six-plus years ago. The model enters Week 9 of the 2021 season on an incredible 128-86 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season.

The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past five years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94 percent of CBS Sports Football Pick’em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

Now, it has turned its attention to the latest Week 9 NFL odds from Caesars and locked in picks for every NFL matchup. Head here to see every pick.

Top Week 9 NFL predictions

One of the model’s strongest Week 9 NFL picks is that the Saints (-6) cover the spread against the Falcons, as it has New Orleans winning by 10 points. New Orleans lost quarterback Jameis Winston for the season, but Sean Payton has proven he can win with just about anyone under center. Since 2019, New Orleans has a .739 win percentage with Drew Brees (23 starts), but an .813 winning percentage with any other quarterback (16 starts).

New Orleans’ success is because the team isn’t reliant on its quarterback to win games since it boasts one of the league’s top defenses. The Saints have intercepted the most passes in the NFL (11) while also limiting opponents to 3.5 yards per carry, which is the best mark in the league. The Falcons rank 29th in rushing yards per attempt and just saw Matt Ryan toss two interceptions at home to Carolina.

Ryan has thrown four interceptions over his last three games against the Saints, and those came when he had Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley out wide. Neither will be on the field on Sunday, and the model projects Ryan to get picked off for the fifth straight game in New Orleans. It also has Alvin Kamara rushing for more yards than Atlanta’s entire team, which helps New Orleans cover in over 60 percent of simulations.

Another one of its Week 9 NFL predictions: The Steelers (-6.5) cover against the Bears at home. Pittsburgh was a five-point underdog last week coming out of its bye at Cleveland but managed to win outright, 15-10. Chicago got a gutty effort out of rookie quarterback Justin Fields last week, but still lost to San Francisco, 33-22.

Much of Fields’ big day against the 49ers came from his rushing yards, which totaled 103 with a touchdown. This season, Pittsburgh has only allowed opposing quarterbacks to run for 77 total yards and one score for the entire year. Fields has only topped 200 yards passing in one game so far this season, and even though the Steelers’ defense only has two interceptions in 2021, it has kept quarterbacks to lower yardage totals.

Pittsburgh running back Najee Harris has been one of the league’s most productive rookies, and Chicago has yielded at least 145 yards rushing to its opponents in its last three games. SportsLine’s model predicts Harris to finish with another 75 yards and a score, while Fields will finish with under 175 yards passing and just 36 yards on the ground. That’s all the difference Pittsburgh needs to cover the 6.5-point spread in nearly 60 percent of simulations.

How to make Week 9 NFL picks

The model has also made the call on who wins and covers in every other game on the Week 9 NFL schedule, and it’s calling for a Super Bowl contender to go down hard. You can only get every pick for every game at SportsLine.

So which NFL picks can you make with confidence, and which Super Bowl contender goes down hard? Check out the latest NFL odds below, then visit SportsLine to see which teams win and cover the spread, all from a proven computer model that has returned almost $7,800 since its inception, and find out.

Week 9 NFL odds, spreads, lines

Thursday, Nov. 4

Jets at Colts (-10.5, 46)

Sunday, Nov. 7

Texans at Dolphins (-6.5, 45.5)

Broncos at Cowboys (-10, 49.5)

Vikings at Ravens (-6, 49.5)

Patriots at Panthers (+3.5, 41)

Bills at Jaguars (+14.5, 48.5)

Browns at Bengals (-2.5, 47)

Raiders at Giants (+3, 46.5)

Falcons at Saints (-6, 42)

Chargers at Eagles (+1.5, 50)

Packers at Chiefs (-7.5, 48)

Cardinals at 49ers (+1, 46)

Titans at Rams (-7.5, 53.5)

Monday, Nov. 8

Bears at Steelers (-6.5, 40)