The Six Pack: Auburn vs. Texas A&M, Michigan State vs. Purdue among best Week 10 college football bets

It’s time to stop arguing with everybody about the College Football Playoff rankings and get back to work making money. Last week was fabulous for The Six Pack because not only did my Lock of the Week win for once, but the column went 5-1 overall. That improves The Six Pack to 33-21 on the season, and I’m not going to lie, that’s awesome. Anytime you can hit on more than 60% of your picks, you’re going to have a good time.

Of course, it also means there’s probably some regression coming, but we’ll ignore that like it’s the kitchen trash can that is definitely full, but maybe you can squeeze a few more things in there if you try hard. Anything to keep from having to take it out, right?

Maybe comparing this column to a trash can isn’t the best vibe to be putting out there, but I’m just that confident right now, so let’s get to the picks. All odds are via Caesars Sportsbook.

Games of the Week

No. 13 Auburn at No. 14 Texas A&M: Do you trust either of these offenses right now? To Zach Calzada’s credit, he’s improved seemingly every week as Texas A&M’s starting quarterback after a slow start. The crescendo was the win over Alabama, but he’s continued putting up solid numbers against Missouri and South Carolina. Of course, neither team is good defensively. On the other side, Bo Nix lit up Arkansas and Ole Miss the last couple of weeks, but a lot of teams have done that. 

So which quarterbacks show up this weekend? My inkling is that an Auburn offense that has struggled against solid defensive fronts will return to form against the Aggies. I also expect the Texas A&M offense to come back to Earth a bit against a solid Auburn defense. In the end, I think we end up with an entertaining, close affair in College Station, but not one that lights up the scoreboard too often. Texas A&M 27, Auburn 20 | Under 49

No. 3 Michigan State at Purdue: This is a tricky spot for Michigan State, so I’m avoiding the spread. Not only are the Spartans coming off a massive win over rival Michigan, but now they’re on the road against Purdue, which just can’t stop beating teams it isn’t supposed to. So I’m going to attack the total because — very much to my surprise given preseason expectations — this Boilermakers defense is excellent. It ranks 10th nationally in defensive success rate and 12th in points allowed per possession.

If you watched Michigan State last week, you saw running back Kenneth Walker III go off with multiple chunk yardage plays, but that’s nothing new. The Spartans offense is built around big plays, ranking 11th nationally in my explosiveness metric. The problem is that while Sparty is explosive, it’s not consistent or efficient. It ranks 50th in offensive success rate and 40th in points per drive. It also struggles in the red zone, scoring touchdowns on 61.3% of their red zone possessions (68th nationally). Purdue is even worse, ranking 109th at 51.6%. 

When I look at this matchup, I see a result that can go a lot of different ways, but more of them will finish below this total than above it. Remember: the Games of the Week section is used for … the biggest games of the week (duh) … but that doesn’t always mean I love the pick. Since there wasn’t an obvious choice for a second Game of the Week, that should tell you I like this play. Michigan State 28, Purdue 20 | Under 54

Lock of the Week

Army at Air Force: Let me bust out the same script I’ve been using in games between service academies for the last however many years. Ahem: Since 2005, the under is 39-9-1 when service academies play. That’s because service academies run option offenses. That means they run the ball a lot! Army runs the ball 89.1% of the time, while Air Force runs 87.8% of the time. Those are the two highest rushing rates in the country (Navy, another option offense, is third). When teams run the ball, the clock does not stop. When the clock doesn’t stop, it limits the overall number of possessions each team has, which puts a serious cap on how many points will be scored.

And that’s why the under cashes so frequently in games between service academies. If you think the total is too low, I get it, but don’t be scared. The last 10 games between academies (since 2018) have averaged 33.2 points per game, and that includes a 34-25 Navy win over Air Force in 2019. Army 21, Air Force 14 | Under 37

Good Dog of the Week

Tennessee at No. 18 Kentucky: I have a sneaking suspicion that Kentucky has been exposed. The Wildcats came into the 2021 season with a new offense that nobody had seen yet and the early results were impressive. In their first two games against ULM and Missouri, the offense had a success rate of 54.4% and averaged 3.2 points per possession. In six games since, they’ve had a success rate of 51.2% and averaged 1.84 points per possession. That’s a steep drop-off, and while the last two games against Georgia and Mississippi State had a lot to do with it, there were warning signs already. 

Now, Tennessee’s offensive performances have fluctuated from week to week, too. There’s not a lot of consistency there, but this team can strike quickly and often. I have concerns about Kentucky’s offense if it gets behind and needs to chase points. This isn’t a great matchup for Kentucky, either, because even though Tennessee is a run-heavy offense, it passes the ball well, ranking 15th nationally with a passing efficiency of 159.2. Kentucky’s defense has done much better against the run than the pass, ranking 8th in defensive passing efficiency and 115th in defensive success rate against the pass. Tennessee 28, Kentucky 24 | Tennessee +1

Bad Team of the Week

ULM at Texas State: This is an instance in which power ratings and analytics tell you that ULM should be the underdog because, though 4-4, it’s been outscored by 122 points on the season. But this is also an instance in which you need to shove the analytics in a sack and drown them because listening to them means you’re trusting Texas State to cover a spread as a favorite.

You do not want to trust Texas State as a favorite. At least, I certainly don’t. The Bobcats are 2-6 and have a -113 point differential of their own to deal with. These are two bad teams squaring off, with two bad offenses and two terrible defenses. What we have here is simply a situation in which neither team deserves to be favored against anybody, so we’re betting on the underdog. ULM 31, Texas State 27 | ULM +3.5

One More Under of the Week

No. 12 Baylor at TCU: Baylor is one of the more interesting stories of the 2021 season because it went 2-7 last season and I didn’t see much reason for hope this year. I loved that coach Dave Aranda hired Jeff Grimes from BYU to run the offense, but I did not think he’d have as significant an impact as he’s had. Baylor suddenly transformed from a team trying to win games 13-10 to a team that can beat you in various ways. 

Want more college football in your life? Listen below and subscribe to the Cover 3 College Football podcast for top-notch insight and analysis beyond the gridiron.

Now, the Bears are hitting the road to face a TCU team in shambles after Gary Patterson was let go on Sunday. I didn’t have a lot of faith in the Frogs before the Patterson decision and I have even less now. Also, Aranda has a ton of respect for Patterson (as do many other coaches). This is likely a scenario in which Baylor takes control of the game and then just takes its foot off the gas in the second half. That’s why I’m not a massive fan of the spread, but will instead add yet another under to this week’s card. Baylor 31, TCU 20 | Under 58

SportsLine Pick of the Week

No. 5 Ohio State at Nebraska: Well, I ran out of room in the column this week, but I have another play I love. If you’d like to find out what it is, all you have to do is head over to my SportsLine page.

Which college football picks can you make with confidence in Week 10, and which Top 25 team will get stunned? Visit SportsLine to see which teams will win and cover the spread — all from a proven computer model that has returned almost $3,700 in profit over the past five-plus seasons — and find out.