The UFC returns to Madison Square Garden in New York City this Saturday night for UFC 268. It’s a huge night of fights, capped off with a pair of championship bouts and loaded with big names.
In the main event, Colby Covington gets a second crack at welterweight champion Kamaru Usman after suffering a fifth-round TKO loss in their December 2019 clash. The co-main event sees Rose Namajunas defend the women’s strawweight championship against Weili Zhang. Namajunas knocked out Zhang in April, winning the championship for a second time in her career.
For many, there’s no better way to add a little extra spice to a big night of fights than having a little money on the line. With so many intriguing fights on the card and so many close fights, it’s a great card to get in on some of the action.
Caesars Sportsbook has you covered with every angle of UFC 268 to get in on the action. We’re going to give you a few options to consider with this card from our favorite moneyline play, prop play and parlay play. Let’s take a closer look at those picks now.
Best moneyline pick
Edmen Shahbazyan +105 vs. Nassourdine Imavov
Shahbazyan is entering as a slight underdog here because he has had two rough performances in a row. Those fights came against Derek Brunson and Jack Hermansson. No offense to Nassourdine Imavov, but Brunson and Hermansson he is not. This is “get right” matchmaking for Shahbazyan by the UFC. Imavov is talented enough to be very much in the fight but he’s certainly more in the grouping of fighters that Shahbazyan has impressed against through his career, leading the UFC to think they had a star on their hands despite being in his early 20s. Shahbazyan has had cardio issues, but those tend to be present when he’s forced into a grappling exchange, which isn’t Imavov’s go-to strategy. Trust in Shahbazyan to get back on track in New York City.
Moneyline record to date (2021): 4-4
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Best prop pick
Kamaru Usman vs. Colby Covington under 4.5 rounds -110
You could add a bit more value if you drop to under 3.5 rounds at +110, but the difference isn’t really enough to not give yourself an extra round of cushion. The thinking here is that Covington is who Covington is while Usman has steadily improved with every outing of late. Usman’s striking was already more complex and more thoughtful than Covington’s high-output approach in their first meeting and he won that fight in just over 4.5 rounds. This time around, Covington will be battling rust and the fact that Usman has found serious one-punch power. This could be a very short night with Usman stopping Covington quickly, but we can take the cushion all the way to still having great value at -110.
Prop pick record to date (2021): 3-5
Best parlay pick
Justin Gaethje -200, Ian Garry -380, Dustin Jacoby -340, Phil Hawes -330 (+220)
Gaethje’s bout with Michael Chandler is very exciting on paper, but in something of a stylistic mirror match, it’s hard to not see big value on Gaethje as the man with the better chin and slightly more diverse striking attack. Garry is the Cage Warriors welterweight champion who the UFC sees as their next Irish superstar. His biggest trouble recently came in his own camp with a split from his old trainer and having to fight his most recent bout with just one fellow fighter in the corner. He has now moved to Sanford MMA and will have a top-notch corner as he faces Jordan Williams. Jacoby is unbeaten in nine consecutive fights (8-0-1) and is facing John Allan, who is 1-2 in his three most recent outings and those losses have come against men less talented than Jacoby. Finally, Hawes is undefeated in the UFC where he will face Chris Curtis, who is making his Octagon debut. Curtis is on a five-fight winning streak, but that all came on the regional scene after a 1-3 run in PFL, showing a bit of a struggle when trying to take a step up in competition.
Parlay pick record to date (2021): 1-7
