UFC 268 predictions — Kamaru Usman vs. Colby Covington 2: Fight card, odds, prelims, expert picks

The UFC returns to New York City on Saturday night for a UFC 268 card headlined by one of the most anticipated fights of the year. Headlining the action from Madison Square Garden is a welterweight title rematch between champion Kamaru Usman and rival Colby Covington.

Usman won the first meeting between the pair at UFC 245 in December 2019, scoring a fifth-round TKO. The fight was filled with back-and-forth action before Usman finally broke Covington down, scoring multiple knockdowns and finally forcing the referee to step in with just 50 seconds left in the bout. Covington has since claimed a conspiracy against him involving the referee cheating him out of a victory with the “quick stoppage.”

Usman vs. Covington isn’t the only championship rematch on the card as Weili Zhang will challenge Rose Namajunas for the women’s strawweight championship. Namajunas became a two-time strawweight champion in April, knocking out Zhang after landing a vicious head kick followed by heavy ground and pound.

Not to be outdone, a major lightweight clash kicks things off with Justin Gaethje and Michael Chandler battling it out. Gaethje previously held the interim lightweight title before falling at the hands of Khabib Nurmagomedov, who retired immediately after the bout. With the title open and fresh off an explosive debut, Chandler battled Charles Oliveira in May but came up short in his quest to win a major promotional title for a fourth time.

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With so much happening on Saturday night, let’s take a closer look at the full fight card with the latest odds from Caesars Sportsbook before we get to our staff predictions and picks for the PPV portion of the festivities.

UFC 268 fight card, odds

• Kamaru Usman (c) -310 vs. Colby Covington +250, welterweight championship
•  Weili Zhang -115 vs. Rose Namajunas (c) -105, women’s strawweight championship
• Marlon Vera -160 vs. Frankie Edgar +135, bantamweight
• Shane Burgos -195 vs. Billy Quarantillo +165, featherweight
  
  
• Justin Gaethje -210 vs. Michael Chandler +175, lightweight
  
  
• Alex Pereira -260 vs. Andreas Michailids +210, middleweight
• Bobby Green -180 vs. Al Iaquinta +155, lightweight
• Phil Hawes -330 vs. Chris Curtis +260, middleweight
• Nassourdine Imavov -120 vs. Edmen Shahbazyan +100, middleweight
• Ian Garry -380 vs. Jordan Williams +300, welterweight
  
  
• Gian Villante -125 vs. Chris Barnett +105, heavyweight
• Dustin Jacoby -380 vs. John Allan +300, light heavyweight
• Melsik Baghdasaryan -340 vs. Bruno Souza +270, featherweight
• Ode Osbourne -180 vs. CJ Vergara +155, flyweight

With such a massive main event on tap, the crew at CBS Sports went ahead with predictions and picks for the main card. Here are your pick makers: Brent Brookhouse (Combat sports writer), Brian Campbell (Combat sports writer, co-host of “Morning Kombat”), Matthew Coca (producer), Jack Crosby (editor), Michael Mormile (producer) and Brandon Wise (senior editor).

UFC 268 picks, predictions

Campbell on why Usman will win: For as close as their first fight was in 2019, with Usman scoring a fifth-round TKO, the champion has grown leaps and bounds from a striking perspective in the aftermath. His new relationship with trainer Trevor Wittman has allowed Usman to prosper, fueling stoppage wins over Gilbert Burns and Jorge Masvidal in their own rematch. Covington has a great motor and is capable of holding his own in certain spots. But unless he finds uncommon success in holding Usman down, the champion is too good to do anything but stop him sooner. 

Brookhouse on why Usman will win: Usman has done nothing but grow as a fighter in his three outings since the first meeting with Covington. He can now win a fight through a grinding grappling-first approach that sets up his striking or through being a technical and powerful striker who has the wrestling game in his back pocket. Since losing to Usman, Covington has fought once, beating up a faded Tyron Woodley. Covington is still dangerous, with a pressure fighting style that he executes as well as anyone in the sport. But his power isn’t a great asset and if he was getting hurt by Usman in 2019, it’s only going to be worse against the new and improved version of the champion. I’m expecting this to be a surprisingly quick and dominant performance from Usman.

Campbell on why Zhang will win: The one drawback of Namajunas’ first-round knockout of Zhang via thunderous head kick in their first meeting was that we were never able to properly see just how well these two match up against one other and which fighter might come out with the edge. Like Namajunas’ title rematch with former champion Joanna Jedrzejczyk, one has to expect a longer and more competitive rematch this time. The fact that Zhang has worked so closely throughout training camp with Henry Cejudo should go a long way in helping her time her takedown attempts in hope of a more balanced effort. If Zhang can neutralize Namajunas’ kickboxing by landing some power shots of her own and mixing in control time on top, a trilogy bout between these two elite strawweights might be in the cards. 

Brookhouse on why Vera will win: Edgar has enjoyed a great career but the new life he hoped to find at 135 pounds has not really materialized. Edgar’s speed and movement are both compromised by his age and the fact that bantamweight is a much faster division in general. Vera is a beatable fighter, yes, but he’s dangerous in the striking and grappling end of things, meaning there’s no clear or easy path to victory for Edgar. Instead, Vera should be able to break down Edgar for the stoppage or to take a reasonably clear decision.

Wise on why Burgos will win: As is the case with Weili Zhang in the co-main event, much will be made of the damage Burgos has incurred in his two most recent fights. All-out brawls with Josh Emmett and Edson Barboza could easily take years off his fighting career, as could his seemingly reckless approach where he leaves his chin exposed too often. But it’s that exact style that makes him so hard to count on in these types of situations. Prior to the Emmett loss, Burgos was on the verge of entering the title picture at 145 pounds. Now with two straight losses, he’ll have his back to the wall against an opponent who has simply not faced the same level of competition in his first four appearances with UFC. Burgos should handle business with relative ease here.

Campbell on why Gaethje will win: For as long as this one lasts, the expectations should be nothing but violence and dramatic turns of momentum. Even with a potential title shot at stake, neither of these two warriors should be expected to do anything but advance forward. Chandler came as close as one can to winning the vacant title left behind by a retired Khabib Nurmagomedov when he badly hurt Charles Oliveira before being stopped shortly after. Gaethje is not only more durable should this become the war most expect it to be, he might also be the more damaging striker between the two.

Who wins Usman vs. Covington 2? And what other picks do you need to see for a parlay with a payout of better than 8/1 ? Visit SportsLine now to get detailed top picks on UFC 268, all from the insider who’s up nearly $9,200 on MMA picks in the past year, and find out.