Each week, I will use this space to tell you what I think are a few of the best bets heading into the weekend. I will also throw in an upset of the week, which will be a team that is at least a touchdown underdog that I am picking to win outright.
I will also give you picks on other games involving potential College Football Playoff teams. There may be scenarios for teams I am not listing that get them CFP consideration, but I do not consider them likely.
I went 1-2 last week to drop back to .500 at 15-15 overall. The upset special — Stanford vs. Utah — only upset me, so it is now 3-7 straight up and 4-6 ATS.
Here are the best bets for Week 11 with odds from Caesars Sportsbook.
Week 11 Picks
Mississippi State at No.17 Auburn
Featured Game | Auburn Tigers vs. Mississippi State Bulldogs
Auburn has played a strong schedule and its three losses came against quality opponents. Only one loss — vs. top-ranked Georgia — has come at home. The Tigers already beat the better Mississippi team at home comfortably and they’ll beat the Bulldogs similarly this week. Pick: Auburn (-5.5)
Connecticut at Clemson
I’m going to do something I haven’t done all season: put some faith in the Clemson offense. OK, a big part of this is really a lack of faith in UConn, but the Tigers have been better on offense lately, putting up 30 points in back-to-back weeks. The Huskies will probably get shut out, so this is just a matter of the Tigers doing their job on offense. Pick: Clemson (-41)
Rutgers at Indiana
These are two of the worst offenses in the Big Ten by any reasonable measure. Indiana has been through a meat grinder of a schedule, and it’s down to its third quarterback. Rutgers has struggled with the better teams in the conference, but it has at least hung around in — if not won — low-scoring games against the others. The Hoosiers may finally get a win, but either way, I like the under. Pick: Under (42)
Upset of the Week
UCF at SMU
Featured Game | SMU Mustangs vs. UCF Knights
SMU’s wins have gone away as the quality of its schedule has picked up. The Mustangs are 6-0 against FBS teams that are currently below .500 and 0-2 against those with winning records. Those losses came at Houston and Memphis in the last two weeks. Maybe playing at home will help, but I still like UCF to at least cover and possibly win outright. Pick: UCF (+230)
Other CFP candidates
- No. 1 Georgia at Tennessee Pick: Under (56)
- New Mexico State at No. 2 Alabama Pick: Alabama (-51.5)
- Washington State at No. 3 Oregon Pick: Oregon (-14)
- No. 19 Purdue at No. 4 Ohio State Pick: Purdue (+20)
- No. 5 Cincinnati at South Florida Pick: Cincinnati (-23.5)
- No. 6 Michigan at Penn State Pick: Under (48.5)
- Maryland at No. 7 Michigan State Pick: Michigan State (-13)
- No. 8 Oklahoma at No. 13 Baylor Pick: Oklahoma (-5.5)
- No. 9 Notre Dame at Virginia Pick: Notre Dame (-5.5)
- TCU at No. 10 Oklahoma State Pick: Oklahoma State (-13)
