College football odds, lines, bets, top predictions for Week 11, 2021: Advanced model picks Baylor, Notre Dame

No. 7 Michigan State does not have any room for error after losing at Purdue last week. The Spartans dropped out of the top four in the updated College Football Playoff ranking on Tuesday night. They will host Maryland on Saturday afternoon as part of the Week 11 college football schedule. Michigan State is a 13-point favorite in the latest Week 11 college football odds at Caesars Sportsbook.

Elsewhere in the Big Ten, No. 4 Ohio State (-20) will host No. 19 Purdue and No. 6 Michigan (-1.5) makes the trip to Penn State. Should you be targeting any of those Week 11 college football spreads? And which other college football lines have value this weekend? Before making any Week 11 college football picks, be sure to see the latest college football predictions and betting advice from SportsLine’s proven model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every FBS college football game 10,000 times. Over the past five-plus years, the proprietary computer model has generated a stunning profit of almost $3,500 for $100 players on its top-rated college football picks against the spread. It also enters Week 11 of the 2021 season on a 31-20 run on all top-rated college football side picks. Anyone who has followed it has seen huge returns.

Now, it has turned its attention to the latest Week 11 college football odds from Caesars and locked in picks for every FBS matchup. Head here to see every pick.

Top Week 11 college football predictions

One of the top college football picks the model is recommending for Week 11: No. 13 Baylor (+5.5) stays within the spread against No. 8 Oklahoma in a Big 12 showdown at noon ET on Saturday in Waco. The Bears have quietly been one of the top teams in the Big 12 this season, with their two losses coming by a combined 12 points at Oklahoma State and TCU. They have gone 5-0 at home, picking up wins over Iowa State, BYU and Texas. Junior quarterback Gerry Bohanon has thrown for nearly 2,000 yards and has 15 touchdown passes.

Senior running back Abram Smith is averaging 7.2 yards per carry, finding the end zone 11 times. Oklahoma snuck past Kansas State and Texas in one-score road games earlier this season before nearly getting upset at Kansas three weeks ago. The Sooners have not inspired confidence away from home, which is why Baylor is covering the spread in well over 50 percent of simulations.

Another one of the college football predictions from the model: No. 9 Notre Dame (-5.5) covers against Virginia in a 7:30 p.m. ET Saturday matchup. Virginia has ridden quarterback Brennan Armstrong to a productive season on offense, but Armstrong (ribs) is questionable for this game and his status might not be known until close to kickoff. With or without Armstrong, the model sees Virginia falling well short of its scoring average (38.9 ppg) against a tough Notre Dame defense.

Notre Dame, meanwhile, has won and covered in four straight games. Twice during that span, the Irish were single-digit favorites but ended up covering by at least 10 points. That’s what SportsLine’s model is projecting here as Notre Dame wins by 11 points in the simulations, covering the spread more than 60 percent of the time.

How to make Week 11 college football picks

The model has also made the call on who wins and covers in every other game on the Week 11 college football schedule, and it’s calling for a top-15 team to go down hard in a surprising upset. You can only get every pick for every game at SportsLine.

So what college football picks can you make with confidence? And which top-15 squad gets stunned? Check out the latest college football odds below, then visit SportsLine to see which teams win and cover the spread, all from a proven computer model that has returned almost $3,500 in profit over the past five-plus seasons, and find out.